Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty- Achchhey Din Aane Wale Hein !!!

Good Days are round the corner for the prudent Technical Traders. Lets check out- Why ?

General Election 2014 Results are poised for May 16th which may give a good move in the Short Term and clear the Major Trend ahead for the Medium Term Time Frame.

Check the Technical Probabilities ahead -

Elliott Wave Analysis for Nifty

Check out a Bullish Probability - 

Technical Analysis for Nifty

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

The bounce materialized from the support zone of 5220-5190 . The short term Uptrend looks strong but is it a corrective bounce only or something bigger ?. Lets check out the probabilities -

Trading Nifty

Nifty is slowly grinding up on weekly basis with no correction of consequence . The indicators in different time frames are showing negative diversions wrt the price movement along with a completion of a wave count . What to expect next -

Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave Update for Nifty

Markets reacted from apprx. the Resistance zone given in last post of 5380-95. Now the closes after that have been above 5300 and the down sessions have been on comparable lower volumes. The Weekly close has been neutral . Lets check out the probabilities and factors supporting both the causes.

Elliott Wave Update for Nifty

Nifty reacted from the resistance zone of 5225-5265 as seen in the last post . The downside was not much and almost paired the losses completely. Now let us check the probability that may be unfolding in the short term -

Technical Analysis for Nifty

First session of the last week took out the Monthly low of 5169 till then, bringing in weakness and trapping series long which culminated in the series expiry towards the low and in the process whipsawed the 200dma /5095 on closing basis on expiry day . Lets now see the technical picture in different time frames -

Trading Nifty

It has been a choppy , low range , low volatility Market since the start of July series. The Monthly range so far has been a poor 180 points apprx. Since last few months ,after making a top at 5630, we are seeing the trading with no followups of any breakouts on either side , important levels and averages being whipsawed , range bound short term trading and now small daily ranges and low volatility. It has been a boring market to trade lately .

Elliott wave & TA update for Nifty

Further to the last post , EW Probabilities in Long Term and an Update for Short Term trading is given below . Read the observations given in the charts carefully .

Technical Analysis & Elliott Wave Update for Nifty

We have completed half year trading of 2012 . Lets check out Nifty in different time frames along with probable Elliott wave counts , Indicators , Patterns ,Trendlines and associated data for what lies ahead .

Technical Analysis for Nifty

Nifty is in clear downtrend from last few weeks and is unable to close above critical levels mentioned in the previous posts to give any reversal . Lets check what's in store for next week with charts and observations :

 

Technical Analysis for Nifty

Charts for Analytical Insight and Trading ahead :

FD beats Equity Investment !!!

An article in ET suggests that for a time period of last 20 years Stock Markets have underperformed Fixed Deposits. The article is an eye opener for Long Term investing and underlines the need for Timing and Active portfolio management for Investors.

Check the article at - The Economic Times  

Nifty Update & Long Term Target

The Hourly Triangle breakdown in the last post , retraced to touch the lower trendline ,whipsawed the SAR of 5080 and closed down below it. Today's high (made in first hour of trade) was 5078 !!! . It was a trending day throughout. Now let us checkout the Weekend Analysis posted on 15-08-11,

" Conclusions:

1. Bias is firmly down in Short term .

2. Watch the Triangle break in Hourly charts for near term direction . ( trigger)

Near term Resistances are 5100 and 5140 apprx. - (The High made this week is apprx 5135)

3. If breaks 5050 or Hourly Triangle down , then can test recent lows . Next move will be on reaction at this level. ( touched the recent low level of 4946 today)

If closes below 5000 levels one can be positionally short with  strict s/l . Targets may be 4800 or sub 4800 (as discussed in long term post). Hold & sit tight till Market stops u out. (for Trend Trading).

5.  Probability that if  the Gap is not filled in next two-three trading sessions or closing above 5200 soon , The Markets may fall by its own weight. " ( Very True !!!)

Long Term Update:

Now the Markets are poised to touch / trade near the Long Term Target of apprx. 4800 level may be tomorrow /soon which I posted at the time of  start of the Blog on Jan 30th this year - Click Here  and followed up recently - Click Here .

The journey of this duration has been truly Educative and Interactive with positive support from the Readers & fellow Bloggers . Thanks to All !!!

My sincere Thanks also for the warm response given by all to my new venture of Advisory services aimed at 'Learn & Earn'- Click Here 

I will be closing the Subscriptions Next Friday , 26-08-11 . Please feel free to Mail me for any queries.

Technical Analysis of Nifty

Markets are now poised at critical juncture in Long Term time frame . News flow and associated reactions may muddle our vision . Lets objectively analyze it Technically so as to try and get a probabilty that will help us navigate the short term moves keeping the Long Term TF in hindsight.

Elliott Wave Analysis for Nifty

Charting the Elliott Wave counts this time seemed to be like watching the Hollywood flick , 'Vantage Point' , where an attempeted assassination of the American President is retold by several different perspectives of the eyewitness , One Truth and so many point of views. What the truth is here , will only be told by the time in future but the counts gave so many Bearish as well as Bullish perspectives that it emphasized the fact that Markets are uncertain and only prediction which will hold true is that - 

"The Markets are Unpredictable".

 

Interesting Charts - Nifty

This is a follow up of some of the relevant charts posted earlier, that have changed the structure in today's rally. The Markets gives some message with each day and each trade.

Trading is a Business of managing uncertainities. If there was a certainity in the Maket ,it will cease to exist . Acceptance of uncertainity is a virtue and reacting to it is the way to trade . We all trade our beliefs in the arena and have no control over the markets , but importantly we can control our actions and be hedged against our own beliefs . The most difficult part of trading is to manage oneself in realtime , trade the screen , control the risk and leave the bias when price action says it to . All this can only come if the rules of the trading system are set in place and above all are followed with discipline. Let no loss go without a lesson and be able to shake the confidence .Probabilities have to be traded but with proper risk management. Easier said than done, but that is why only a few succeed here.

You Cannot Change The Direction of the Wind , But You Can Adjust Your Sails !!!

 

Elliott Wave Analysis for Nifty

Have updated the Post with an Alternate count at 5.30 pm today . Please go through.

Checking out the Short Trem Probabilities based on Elliott wave theory for trading Nifty.

The Good ,The Bad & The 'Googly'

These are the three likely Trading Probabilities for Nifty as per Elliott Wave Theory, that may occur in near future on a broader perspective.