Elliott Wave Analysis for Nifty

Charting the Elliott Wave counts this time seemed to be like watching the Hollywood flick , 'Vantage Point' , where an attempeted assassination of the American President is retold by several different perspectives of the eyewitness , One Truth and so many point of views. What the truth is here , will only be told by the time in future but the counts gave so many Bearish as well as Bullish perspectives that it emphasized the fact that Markets are uncertain and only prediction which will hold true is that - 

"The Markets are Unpredictable".

 

1. The Basic Count that I have been following is that we are in a Wave 4 on a long Term Chart .The Wave 3 started in 2003 when Nifty was sub 1000 level and ended in the start of 2008.  This wave 4 may take a shape of a Bullish Ascending Triangle Pattern to give way for wave 5 later.

"Triangles appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles contain five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled a-b-c-d-e." - EWI


2. This 4th wave may have completed its wave 'a' down and wave 'b' up. We may now be in wave 'c' down since Nov. 2010.

3.  I tried to fit this wave 'c' down in many perspectives both bullish as well as bearish. But the most appropriate count that I got in conjunction with the Technical Indicators was a 5-3-5-3-5 sub wave pattern since the start till now . This can also be classified in a probable Double Zigzag pattern . (Single zigzag being an A-B-C pattern with 5-3-5 subwaves )

"Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three," producing what is called a double zigzag "- EWI


4. The wave 'c' may have completed the first zigzag (A-B-C) termed as 'W' and the intervening three waves termed as 'X' . it also seems to have complete the first subwave A of the second zigzag termed as 'Y'.

 

5. We may now be in the wave B of the second zigzag 'Y'. The wave A may have recently terminated in a five wave downmove.

6. The Fibonacci chart shows the probable targets of the wave B-Y.

We should remember that this wave B will progress in a three sub wave , complex correction upwards . It is also a sucker wave in nature which may make the Short term Bullish and suck lots of people in believing a Larger Bullish count before it gives way to a wave C down trapping the hopefuls.

Have a Profitable 'Surfing' !!!