Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Technical Analysis for Nifty

Last Post ,couple of weeks ago ,ended as follows -

"The Short term trend is Up but may fizzle out in the target zone mentioned. Trade with Trend following methods unless reversal is signalled and confirmed by price."

The observation in comment section updated - 

AAR VEE said...

In wake of bearish political developments ,keep in mind following technicals-

1. Trend in short term is up.

2. The previous Gap level of 5530 is important now. Its a 38% retrace level apprx for a wave 4 in progress (may be even iv-3) as well as apprx 5dema level.Close below 5530 will change the short term trend to sell on rise.

3.As per options data 5500 is a support zone and 5700 now resistance.

4. FII cash and derivatives figures are bullish along with NF open interest.

5. EW wise the move from 4770 now resembles more of W-X-Y pattern where Y starts from 5216 in five waves.Target of Y=W=5795 apprx.
(and higher TF tgt of C=A=5870)

6.Now upmove will commence only above 5600 level and close above it will take to targets 5730,5795 apprx.


Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Very good analysis, thanx for self explanatory charts.



Anonymous said...

Thanks RV, God Bless You

SP said...

Feeling of 'something is missing' was there in last week without your post , but now its vanished :) Thanks for the nice charts!

Nilesh Patil said...

Thank you Aar-vee sir. Its so simple and analysis

Randhir said...

Dear Sir,

I am new to EW and knowledge is restricted to theory. My understanding was that wave 1 and wave c are impulse or end/lead diagonal and wave c is 3 wave in triangle. For rise from 4770 You have marked WXY and the rise as wave c, i would like to know is their any other special case for it. Also the wave W is 3 wave and its alternate count is marked as wave 1 which is again a new for me. Sir, since i am new so request you please clarify my doubts.


Parminder said...

RV Sir,
Thanks for the updated charts with ur views.

Piyush Sharda said...

good analysis rv

Piyush Sharda said...

these days u dont use volume profile charts

AAR VEE said...

Parminder and Piyush for ur kind comment and feedback.

I am also a student of EW as u are and try to put best possible wave structure as per my knowledge.The red counts are alternative counts and here mentioned wave 1 may be a 5 wave structure of which the subwaves i may have missed,hence primary count is three wave structure and alternate is my oversight.

I use the profiles in trading as one of the most imp tools ,not exhibiting the charts as many whipsaws have been observed in the low volume market scenario of late.

AAR VEE said...

Update EOD 03-10-12 :

As per todays trading an ED in wave 5 (now in subwave d) since 5216 is also a probability with negative diversion in hourly tf and now in daily tf also.

So upmove only above close of 5750 and bearish below 5700 with break of lower trendline of ED as signal in hourly chart. Shorts only on confirmation of price and pattern with proper risk management.

Piyush Sharda said...

thanx rv

AAR VEE said...

EOD UPDATE 4-10-12
The Ed probability invalidated at open.

Target of 5795 achieved as in chart calculation ,now for 5870.

5700 pe have exceeded 5800 ce today, shows strength and base.5730 remains imp level for weakness below it.
Some aggresive writing at 5800 pe strike. overconfidence or smart money?

Probability that we may be in 5th wave now since 5216 are high. we may have done i-ii of v of the 5th so may be nearing short term top.