Sunday, September 16, 2012

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

The bounce materialized from the support zone of 5220-5190 . The short term Uptrend looks strong but is it a corrective bounce only or something bigger ?. Lets check out the probabilities -

Following was the observation at start of last week mentioned in the comment section of the last post -


Not able to update a new post due to net connectivity issue .

So the bounce is on as per this post from the support zone and trendline mentioned. Now its the nature of bounce that will decide its a new impulse or a corrective of the previous fall.

Indicator wise there is no weakness in daily or hourly TF.

Price wise we have closed above 20dma at 5335 and if held on closing basis will lead to further upmove.

Option data suggests at developing support at 5300 levels and probable resistance at 5600 with initial resistance near 5400

EW wise we may be in wave 3 from the low of 5216.

Closing above 5390 will be positionally bullish and likewise closing below 5260 will be bearish in the short term.

5300-5310 are support levels below 5335 and 5450,5515,5530 are targets above.

September 9, 2012 9:15 PM


Check out the charts with comments . Please go through them carefully .

1. Monthly Chart :

We may be in corrective bounce only.

2. Weekly Chart :

The corrective bounce may be in the last leg.

3. Daily Chart :

The last leg of the bounce may be in its 3rd wave.

4. Hourly Chart :

The last leg may be forming an Ending Diagonal Pattern as follows. ( Though not very sure about it )

5. Target Zone for this upmove may be-

6. Alternate probability with Bullish implications may be as follows ( owing to liquidity and news flow )

The Short term trend is Up but may fizzle out in the target zone mentioned. Trade with Trend following methods unless reversal is signalled and confirmed by price. 


Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Very good unbiased analysis, keep continue doing your great work.



Rahul K. Jamkar said...

GM Sir, Thank you very much for update. God bless you.

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Kumarji for ur consistent encouragement.


Thanks Rahul for leaving ur comment.

Parminder said...

Rv for ur educative information regarding charts which is invaluable

SP said...

Thanks for sharing your insights on nifty charts! :)

San said...

Great Analysis AAR VEE as always

Piyush Sharda said...

good one rv.

Piyush Sharda said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
chauhan said...

very adductive analysis sir,
thanks for counting,
which i can not imagine...........

Nilesh Patil said...

Very Valuable inputs sir,
Thanks for detailed counts.

Smita said...

Thanks for the post RV !

AAR VEE said...

Thanks ,

Parminder SP ,San,PS,mk ,Nilesh and Smita ,for going through the post and leaving ur comments.


AAR VEE said...


In wake of bearish political developments ,keep in mind following technicals-

1. Trend in short term is up.

2. The previous Gap level of 5530 is important now. Its a 38% retrace level apprx for a wave 4 in progress (may be even iv-3) as well as apprx 5dema level.Close below 5530 will change the short term trend to sell on rise.

3.As per options data 5500 is a support zone and 5700 now resistance.

4. FII cash and derivatives figures are bullish along with NF open interest.

5. EW wise the move from 4770 now resembles more of W-X-Y pattern where Y starts from 5216 in five waves.Target of Y=W=5795 apprx.
(and higher TF tgt of C=A=5870)

6.Now upmove will commence only above 5600 level and close above it will take to targets 5730,5795 apprx.

paddy said...

Thanks RV for the latest update!!Its Timely!!

karthikg said...

Last and final UPMOVE coming up in nifty.This should take nifty to atleast 5740-5800 range and then the massive crash first towards 4300 starts.We could reach 5740-5790 by sept 27-28 itself.BON voyage!!!!!

AAR VEE said...

@Paddy ,

Thanks for ur timely comment :)

@Karthikg ,

Thanks for ur consistent views and update.

KRG said...

karthikg: You are looking at EW or Gann? Possible to put out a chart for the triggers on the levels mentioned?


Karthikg said...

@krg I think the markets may extend thier move and not end at 5740-95 though the correction from that range could be fast and furious of about 300-400 points.there is a good chance that the top could be around 5900-5950 range before we crash down towards 3800-4300 range and lower.I don't understand neo waves and look upon people like you and shailesh to keep us abreast of that but I will try to fit this move in a diametric and try to get back on that . This looks like a very complex move and so traditional analysis works more efficiently.

AAR VEE said...


Next Post for update on 02-10-12.