These are the three likely Trading Probabilities for Nifty as per Elliott Wave Theory, that may occur in near future on a broader perspective.
The Good :
This is the view of Tony Caldaro , the EW expert, updated recently on March 27 .
For detailed analysis Click Here. The chart below is reproduced from his Blog with Thanks.
As per him , we are in multi decade cycle wave ( 3 ) and may be now in the Intermediate wave iii (started at recent lows ) of the Major wave 3 that started in May'10.
As per him - We can anticipate a breakout to all time new highs in the Weeks/Months ahead. This is a very Bullish scenario with likely targets of this intermediate wave to Sensex equivalent of Nifty at approx. 6800+ ,7900 . Wow !!! God Bless !!!
The Bad :
This is the Preferred count that I have been following - Click Here.
Now we are in the wave B of the likely A-B-C correction of the wave 'c' of the Wave 4th likely to move in a triangle.
In this Preferred scenario the wave B should end near 62% - 78% retrace of the wave A ,say near 6050 apprx. level. Then a wave C will start downwards which modestly may be apprx. equal to wave A ( 1160 pts) and can target sub 5000 levels near 4900 or below.
Tony's view can still converge with this one above if the A-B-C correction becomes part of his Intermediate wave ii (started Nov'10) .Then this wave ii can correct upto 38.2% retrace of the total upmove since May'09.
Lets keep the fingers crossed and follow the trend dictated by the Price action.
The Googly :
The Markets throws up the Googly ball more often than not. This probability is of a sucker irregular wave B .The wave B moves beyond the the start of the wave A ,sucks all in the bullish momentum and then starts the wave C down . This may make the
A-B-C correction as a probable 'Expanded Flat '. ( If the wave B target 1.62% of wave A , it may reach 7050 levels and a wave C down below 5000 levels ). It is grahically represented as below-
Keeping in mind these probabilities for near future , stress on Price action , caution at turns of each scenario, managing the trade with proper money and risk management, we can get the most out of the count that will unfold .