Saturday, April 2, 2011

The Good ,The Bad & The 'Googly'


These are the three likely Trading Probabilities for Nifty as per Elliott Wave Theory, that may occur in near future on a broader perspective.


The Good :

This is the view of Tony Caldaro , the EW expert, updated recently on March 27 .
For detailed analysis Click Here. The chart below is reproduced from his Blog with Thanks.


As per him , we are in multi decade cycle wave ( 3 ) and may be now in the Intermediate wave iii (started at recent lows ) of the Major wave 3 that started in May'10.
As per him - We can anticipate a breakout to all time new highs in the Weeks/Months ahead. This is a very Bullish scenario with likely targets of this intermediate wave to Sensex equivalent of Nifty at approx. 6800+ ,7900 . Wow !!! God Bless !!!

The Bad :

This is the Preferred count  that I have been following - Click Here.

Now we are in the wave B of the likely A-B-C correction of the wave 'c' of the Wave 4th likely to move in a triangle.

In this Preferred scenario the wave B should end near 62% - 78% retrace of the wave A ,say near 6050 apprx. level. Then a wave C will start downwards which modestly may be apprx. equal to wave A ( 1160 pts) and can target sub 5000 levels near 4900 or below.


Tony's view can still converge with this one above if the A-B-C correction becomes part of his Intermediate wave ii (started Nov'10) .Then this wave ii can correct upto 38.2% retrace of the total upmove since May'09.

Lets keep the fingers crossed and follow the trend dictated by the Price action.


The Googly :

The Markets throws up the Googly ball more often than not. This probability is of a sucker irregular wave B .The wave B moves beyond the the start of the wave A ,sucks all in the bullish momentum and then starts the wave C down . This may make the
A-B-C correction as a probable 'Expanded Flat '. ( If the wave B target 1.62% of wave A , it may reach 7050 levels and a wave C down below 5000 levels ). It is grahically represented as below-





Keeping in mind these probabilities for near future , stress on Price action , caution at turns of each scenario, managing the trade with proper money and risk management, we can get the most out of the count that will unfold .

9 comments:

Rajib said...

I too sometimes visit Caldaro's page ... but I think he does not do the counting for our market(Read: Count and Labeling by: Praveen K). If you notice carefully some of the labeling is strikingly against the rule!

I have one indicator called mid-point / mid-price. Once in OJN, I shared with mok ... Except once it has never lied in last 5 years on weekly chart. As per it, we are still very much in DOWN trend. Try it out ...

AAR VEE said...

Ya Rajib,

counting done by his associate but the detailed article was posted by Tony himself so must have checked it.:))

Pl. share ur mid point study here or at ur blog.I think i have missed it earlier at ojn.

theprofiletrader said...

its goin to get ugly and many will find it a googly my frnd
thnks for ur inputs...

piyush sharda said...

good one rv. just a thought abt googly. its working fine as per ur orignal triangle frm 2008 till now, it it was to be irregular the B which ended at 6338 shud have been higher to make irregular. we are in c(down) of triangle and a part of it rising above B? does it look likely?? wave b.C of ascending triangle going above B.

piyush sharda said...

hi rv,

i dont think i got it wrong. u mean A( with abc frm 6338-5177) right???
A comprises a 6338-5690, b 5690-6181, c 6181 5177.

frm 5177, B this is taking shape which can rise further than 6338 or surpass A?
i hope this is what u meant????

AAR VEE said...

PS,

if this c crosses the b with an expanded flat as in googly, we may get an expanded triangle correction ipo ascending one for the 4th.

I commented earlier but reread ur comment now, pl take 'b' as ending on 6338,now we are in c (correct) and in B subwave of this c (got confused by ur mentioning it as B ipo b ):))

key is to take the most likely scenario in corelation with other studies and then flexibility to trade any new pattern emerging.
It helps to keep these new probabilities in mind and not be rigid on original bias.

piyush sharda said...

rv,

now what i want to say is that suppose 4th triangle or a 4th flat (ur view) frm 2008 onwards.
when a A or C wave of flat/triangle is occuring. has b.C or b.A ever risen above a.C or a.A.
respectively. irregular correction occur after 5 impulsive waves with B rising above 5.
b(comprising of ABC) of an flat/triangle behaving like irregular and rising above a(comprising of ABC) has it ever been observed?
expanding/diagonal triangle shud have been by the B (2500-6338) going above A and after C the D going above B.

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