Technical Analysis for Nifty

The August series ended with the maximum damage to the Prices in the downfall since Nov ’10 ( from 6338) . The prices corrected from 5700 levels to 4700 levels ,  apprx. 1000 points fall and now we are trading at multi-months low ( new 52 week low at par with May ’10 levels ).  Let us check out the Technical probabilities for the Short Term –

Update for Trading on 24-08-11

The 15min ORB did not break on downside. Ignore the trade given below.

Trading on 24-08-11

Posting a Trade for tomorrow, which may  turn out a short term swing if goes right .

Entry : Short the 15 min ORB (opening range breakout ), only if breaks on downside. Take care for the proper break.

S/L : Strictly on ORB high+ 5 points . Put it at once u sell on break.

Postion sizing : Increase below 4890 and hold

Target : May Target 4750-4700 in next two -three trading sessions .

Caution : Monitor as per intraday charts if goes right. Caution at 4850 ,can be part booked and re enter on its break. Use Trailing s/l and follow.

No Long Trade Recommended .

NOTE : Subscription closes on Friday - 26/08/11.  

Nifty Update & Long Term Target

The Hourly Triangle breakdown in the last post , retraced to touch the lower trendline ,whipsawed the SAR of 5080 and closed down below it. Today's high (made in first hour of trade) was 5078 !!! . It was a trending day throughout. Now let us checkout the Weekend Analysis posted on 15-08-11,

" Conclusions:

1. Bias is firmly down in Short term .

2. Watch the Triangle break in Hourly charts for near term direction . ( trigger)

Near term Resistances are 5100 and 5140 apprx. - (The High made this week is apprx 5135)

3. If breaks 5050 or Hourly Triangle down , then can test recent lows . Next move will be on reaction at this level. ( touched the recent low level of 4946 today)

If closes below 5000 levels one can be positionally short with  strict s/l . Targets may be 4800 or sub 4800 (as discussed in long term post). Hold & sit tight till Market stops u out. (for Trend Trading).

5.  Probability that if  the Gap is not filled in next two-three trading sessions or closing above 5200 soon , The Markets may fall by its own weight. " ( Very True !!!)

Long Term Update:

Now the Markets are poised to touch / trade near the Long Term Target of apprx. 4800 level may be tomorrow /soon which I posted at the time of  start of the Blog on Jan 30th this year - Click Here  and followed up recently - Click Here .

The journey of this duration has been truly Educative and Interactive with positive support from the Readers & fellow Bloggers . Thanks to All !!!

My sincere Thanks also for the warm response given by all to my new venture of Advisory services aimed at 'Learn & Earn'- Click Here 

I will be closing the Subscriptions Next Friday , 26-08-11 . Please feel free to Mail me for any queries.

Nifty Trading for 17-08-11

For details of Market Insight and Analysis - Click Here

Technical Analysis of Nifty for Short Term

Wishing All A Very Happy Independence Day !!!

Let us analyze Nifty for Short Term to get probabilities of what is in store for a couple of weeks ahead , say till August series end.

Advisory Services for Nifty Futures & Options

Hi Friends,

I propose to start an Advisory Services on Subscription basis  for a select  batch of Traders who wish to have an opportunity to Learn and Trade Technicals.

SGX NIFTY & NIFTY ON 12-08-11

- SGX Nifty closed near the Highs . Nifty may open strong here . 

- The first Resistance zone is the 5165-75 zone . If gaps up over it and sustains then may test the 5225-50 zone . Above 5225 apprx is the Gap area upto 5330. 

- This seems to be the final leg of the retrace upmove ( which may last a couple of sessions more ) hence Positional traders should start entering with the largerTrend that is Down .

- After the Gap up or strong move , if trades below 5165 ( HVN ) will be bearish.

- Keep 5165 as SAR tmrw. and Trade the chart below.  

- Monday is a Trading Holiday so dont take any positions home in the wake of global uncertainity.

SGX NIFTY & NIFTY ON 11-08-2011

SGX Nifty closed in Red. So Nifty here may Gap down. Markets are trying to find foothold above the recent lows and may test 5050-5000 levels.

 Fibonacci Retrace levels of the upmove are given in chart , Volume profiles may not work well now due to gap up and downs but 5075 apprx may act as initial support if trades below 5100 , above 5160-65 has emerged as a HVN and will act as a  good Resistance , Dont be short above it . Can keep 5100 as SAR and trade the chart tmrw. Though 5000 or 5050 has good chance of holding on closing basis , Below it may well be all Red. Trade very light , cut positions fast till the Market settles in a new range. Better Stay Away.

Trade The Chart

As Expected in last night's Post , a 'Temporary' Bottom looks to be in place . Now Trade this Chart for next couple of days.

Larger Trend is Down and this will be a counter trend Trade so have proper protection in place.

SGX Nifty & Global Markets

Will Tomorrow be the Temporary Panic Bottom ???

Technical Analysis of Nifty

Markets are now poised at critical juncture in Long Term time frame . News flow and associated reactions may muddle our vision . Lets objectively analyze it Technically so as to try and get a probabilty that will help us navigate the short term moves keeping the Long Term TF in hindsight.

Dr. Kumar and Homeopathy

This Post is to Thank Dr. Kumar and share with the readers about a personal experience with Homeopathy.

Technical Analysis, Trading Plan & Trading

The 'Cocktail' of Elliott Wave , Indicators, Patterns ,Trendlines, Fibonacci , Moving Averages , Option data , Volume Profiles,Trading Plan & Market Insight ,( stirred and shaken ) gave a 'High' again .

 

World Markets, Commodities ,SGX Nifty

Just took a look before logging off and saw this --

Trading Nifty 05-08-11

Nifty has been trading in the Downtrend as expected in line with Weekend analysis Click Here  and subsequent updates given below.

Apprx. 5300 levels were expected to reach fast , in day before yesterday's update.

Nifty Trading for 04-08-11

Nifty in firm Downtrend.

Trading Nifty 03-08-11

The indication of strength in short term ,trading above 5480 level, mentioned yesterday, was broken in first few minutes of trade and never recovered.

The bias is firmly Down trading below 50dma now.

Update for Nifty Trading 02-08-11

As expected Nifty gave an upmove and was resisted in 5530-5550 zone.