Technical Analysis for Nifty

Last Post concluded a probable breach of 200dma and the Channel break . Now what lies further in Short Term is analyzed in the charts below -

Elliott Wave Update for Nifty

The cross of 5025 and close above it has brought me back to the planning table . The EW perspective of the Basic Counts , that of a Third zigzag in progress and we are in the wave B of that , remains as it is . Below are some Charts , Observations and Conclusions for the Short Term EW update-

Technical Analysis for Nifty

The Markets have moved up in last two weeks since the start of 2012. There are Bullish signals all over. Some questions like - Have we bottomed out? Is this rally sustainable ? How far can we move ahead? What's the signal of end of this upmove? etc, may be answered by combination of Technical Methods. Below are some self explanatory charts with observations -

Nifty in 2012 . Is it the 'CheckMate' Year ??

Please read this Post in continuation with the Broader perspective shared at the last Analytical Write up - CLICK HERE , where the Bearish Insight was presented. As I was going through the Year end data and charts , few more things corelating with that view caught  'The Third Eye' . 

Technical Analysis for Nifty

The Larger Trend is still down and we are on a cross roads for the Short term where the bounce started on Nov. Expiry day may continue or we again slide with the Larger Trend. With combination of the methods used , we will try to get the Trading Insight and levels going ahead.

Technical Analysis for Nifty

There has been a Short Term Reversal from recent lows in last couple of weeks. Prices have overcome the Resistances and Gaps to Trade firm. Is it a complete Reversal making the bias Up or is it a Reaction before the Fall follows again ? Let us objectively analyze and try to find a ' Method in the Madness' with help of the Technicals and combination of them -

Happy Diwali !!!

Wishing All a Very Happy and Healthy Diwali along with a Prosperous Year ahead

Enjoy the Festival !!! Take Care

Elliott Wave Analysis for Nifty

Elliott Wave Analysis helps one understand the prevailingTrend and probable Targets to Trade. Though quite subjective , this theory if used with classical TA methods , is quite handful. It tells the 'Sailor' about the direction of the ' Wind' as well as the distance of the 'Port'.

Lets us now analyze where we are 'sailing' as on date -

Technical Analysis for Nifty

The above Picture was received in a forwarded mail asking to read the word in this picture. Try doing it. You may be able to read a word in it. Try focusing more ,You will find two words in it , 'Illusion' in Blue landscape and 'Optical' in the Yellow.

Similar is the reading of Charts , we tend to see what we believe. But trading it stubbornly can be harmful for the Capital , instead we try to objectively analyze and get some conclusions that should be traded with Flexibility.

Technical Analysis for Nifty

After a big fall in a single session and a followup the next session , we now look for a reaction to it and the probable Resistance levels . The larger Trend is down and almost have confirmed the end of the corrective upmove (of apprx 38%+ ) from the lows of 4720 . Now the larger TF Downtrend takes the driving seat again.

Technical Analysis for Nifty

We have retraced the downmove from 5700- 4720 by apprx. 9% on the upside in the last two weeks . Now coming couple of weeks may see some consolidation/ range trading before the downmove resumes again. Let us check the Tecnicals -

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The Advisory Services began this Week . I Thank All the Subscribers for their Faith and Trust  shown in Me and the Methods .

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Technical Analysis for Nifty

The August series ended with the maximum damage to the Prices in the downfall since Nov ’10 ( from 6338) . The prices corrected from 5700 levels to 4700 levels ,  apprx. 1000 points fall and now we are trading at multi-months low ( new 52 week low at par with May ’10 levels ).  Let us check out the Technical probabilities for the Short Term –

Trading on 24-08-11

Posting a Trade for tomorrow, which may  turn out a short term swing if goes right .

Entry : Short the 15 min ORB (opening range breakout ), only if breaks on downside. Take care for the proper break.

S/L : Strictly on ORB high+ 5 points . Put it at once u sell on break.

Postion sizing : Increase below 4890 and hold

Target : May Target 4750-4700 in next two -three trading sessions .

Caution : Monitor as per intraday charts if goes right. Caution at 4850 ,can be part booked and re enter on its break. Use Trailing s/l and follow.

No Long Trade Recommended .

NOTE : Subscription closes on Friday - 26/08/11.  

Nifty Update & Long Term Target

The Hourly Triangle breakdown in the last post , retraced to touch the lower trendline ,whipsawed the SAR of 5080 and closed down below it. Today's high (made in first hour of trade) was 5078 !!! . It was a trending day throughout. Now let us checkout the Weekend Analysis posted on 15-08-11,

" Conclusions:

1. Bias is firmly down in Short term .

2. Watch the Triangle break in Hourly charts for near term direction . ( trigger)

Near term Resistances are 5100 and 5140 apprx. - (The High made this week is apprx 5135)

3. If breaks 5050 or Hourly Triangle down , then can test recent lows . Next move will be on reaction at this level. ( touched the recent low level of 4946 today)

If closes below 5000 levels one can be positionally short with  strict s/l . Targets may be 4800 or sub 4800 (as discussed in long term post). Hold & sit tight till Market stops u out. (for Trend Trading).

5.  Probability that if  the Gap is not filled in next two-three trading sessions or closing above 5200 soon , The Markets may fall by its own weight. " ( Very True !!!)

Long Term Update:

Now the Markets are poised to touch / trade near the Long Term Target of apprx. 4800 level may be tomorrow /soon which I posted at the time of  start of the Blog on Jan 30th this year - Click Here  and followed up recently - Click Here .

The journey of this duration has been truly Educative and Interactive with positive support from the Readers & fellow Bloggers . Thanks to All !!!

My sincere Thanks also for the warm response given by all to my new venture of Advisory services aimed at 'Learn & Earn'- Click Here 

I will be closing the Subscriptions Next Friday , 26-08-11 . Please feel free to Mail me for any queries.

Nifty Trading for 17-08-11

For details of Market Insight and Analysis - Click Here

Technical Analysis of Nifty for Short Term

Wishing All A Very Happy Independence Day !!!

Let us analyze Nifty for Short Term to get probabilities of what is in store for a couple of weeks ahead , say till August series end.

SGX NIFTY & NIFTY ON 12-08-11

- SGX Nifty closed near the Highs . Nifty may open strong here . 

- The first Resistance zone is the 5165-75 zone . If gaps up over it and sustains then may test the 5225-50 zone . Above 5225 apprx is the Gap area upto 5330. 

- This seems to be the final leg of the retrace upmove ( which may last a couple of sessions more ) hence Positional traders should start entering with the largerTrend that is Down .

- After the Gap up or strong move , if trades below 5165 ( HVN ) will be bearish.

- Keep 5165 as SAR tmrw. and Trade the chart below.  

- Monday is a Trading Holiday so dont take any positions home in the wake of global uncertainity.

SGX NIFTY & NIFTY ON 11-08-2011

SGX Nifty closed in Red. So Nifty here may Gap down. Markets are trying to find foothold above the recent lows and may test 5050-5000 levels.

 Fibonacci Retrace levels of the upmove are given in chart , Volume profiles may not work well now due to gap up and downs but 5075 apprx may act as initial support if trades below 5100 , above 5160-65 has emerged as a HVN and will act as a  good Resistance , Dont be short above it . Can keep 5100 as SAR and trade the chart tmrw. Though 5000 or 5050 has good chance of holding on closing basis , Below it may well be all Red. Trade very light , cut positions fast till the Market settles in a new range. Better Stay Away.

Trade The Chart

As Expected in last night's Post , a 'Temporary' Bottom looks to be in place . Now Trade this Chart for next couple of days.

Larger Trend is Down and this will be a counter trend Trade so have proper protection in place.