Positional Trade and Medium Term Outlook

Pl. catch the Positional Trade at  -     Are The Bears Coming??

and the Medium Term Outlook at -   Future Shock


Will Review and Update the Posts and Charts on the Weekend.  

 HAVE A NICE WEEKEND , ENJOY !!!!

                                        

Trade Alert

Trade the chart combining the 5d high ,low and close ema.

EOD Update

The negative diversion seen yesterday EOD gave a downmove today  at the opening

July Series Followup

1. THE TRADE THAT HAD THE MAX. POSSIBILITY OF OCCURENCE THIS SERIES WAS - NIFTY NOT REACHING TO 5500. IT WAS A PROFITABLE OPTION'S PLAY.

                                                 

Check the posts this month on Option Analysis indicating the same -

Where will Nifty Expire??

Option Analysis for July

Raging Bulls

Where are we going ??

Are the Bears coming---contd

2. NIFTY EXPIRY ANALYSIS HIT THE BULL'S EYE ,IT WAS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN 5385-5415 ,INFACT IT TRADED THE WHOLE DAY IN THIS RANGE ONLY AND EXPIRED AT 5409


                                                 

Check out the Nifty Expiry calculation Post yesterday -

Where will Nifty Expire???

3. THE POSITIONAL TRADE TAKEN ON 13TH JULY IS STILL ON. THE S/L OF 5475 ON CLOSING BASIS IS STILL NOT HIT. WILL REVIEW IT AFTER TMRW'S CLOSE

Check the Positional Trade -

Are the Bears coming----contd

                                                

EOD Analysis

Check out these two charts -

INTRADAY

Was about to post this chart below at 5395 levels.still check it out

Update: It cuts above zero line of macd and makes a new day 's high.my ,my!!!

Where will Nifty Expire ???

1.NIFTY HAS BECOME WEAK IN 5D VOL.PROFILE-

2.NIFTY HAS BROKEN DOWN RISING WEDGE AND TRENDLINE BOTH-

3.OPTIONS O.I./ PCR &ROLLOVER SHOWS THAT-

A. UPSIDE CAP AT 5500 AND DOWNSIDE AT 5300, AS AT START OF THE WEEK

B. NO. OF CALLS ,71.76 LACS, HAVE EXCEEDED THE PUTS ,60LACS, AT THE STRIKE OF 5400 ,GIVING A LIKELY EXPIRY BELOW 5400

C. THE PUT CALL RATIO IS AT 1.07 ,I.E. ON BEARISH SIDE ,BUT IT IS VERY VOLATILE SINCE LAST WEEK ,SHOWING  INDESICION

D. ROLLOVER IN AUGUST FUTURES SINCE LAST THREE DAYS IS BETWEEN THE SMALL RANGE OF 5468-5395 ,THIS RANGE AMOUNTS TO 75% OF TOTAL R.O. OF 2.1 CR. NIFTY FUTURE .

LIKELY RANGE TOMORROW-

KEEPING IN MIND THE ATR(14) OF APPROX. 60 AND ABOVE OBSERVATIONS, NIFTY MAY TRADE BETWEEN 5360-5440, ANY RANGE BREAK WILL BE QUITE VOLATILE

MY BIAS IS FOR A LIKELY EXPIRY BETWEEN 5385-5415.

     

INTRADAY

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

THIS IS A 5D VOL. PROFILE CHART FOR SHORT TERM TRADING.

GM ALL !!

FUTURE SHOCK -2 !!!

CATCH FUTURE SHOCK !!!

CATCH FUTURE SHOCK-1 !!!


BASED ON FUTURE SHOCK & FUTURE SHOCK-1 POSTS ,I CONCLUDE FOLLOWING OBSERVATIONS:

1. CORELATING ALL OBSERVATIONS ,THE MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK HAS HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING BEARISH .(SAY FOR NEXT 2-3 MONTHS)


2. THE INTERMEDIATE TOPPING OUT  ZONE HAS BEEN REACHED  AND MAX. UPSIDE SEEMS TO BE 5580 LEVELS APPROX. 

3..THIS NIFTY SERIES OF JULY HAS ITS OWN DYNAMICS ,SO THIS SCENARIO MAY COME INTO PLAY FROM FIRST HALF OF AUGUST ,AS THE MOMENTUM HAS JUST STARTED TO BUILD UP.

4.IF THIS CORRECTION HAPPENS ,IT WILL BE DIFFERENT FROM LAST CORRECTIONS SINCE MARCH '09 AND WILL ALTER THE MARKET STRUCTURE.

5.THIS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM TELLS THAT ,TRADING SHOULD BE LIGHT MOVING AHEAD & LEAVERAGED POSITIONS TO BE REDUCED TO MINIMUM FOR THE NEXT SERIES & MEDIUM TERM IN GENERAL. 


NOTE: GANN CIRCLES ARE GIVING A DATE OF 9TH AUG. FOR REVERSAL AND ALSO THE MAX. BULLISH ELLIOT WAVE COUNTS WILL END ABOVE 5500 LEVELS.

AND ON A NON -TA NOTE, SOME WESTERN STAR GAZERS ARE PREDICTING KIND OF MAJOR REVERSAL DEFINING PLANETARY POSITIONS BEING BUILT UP IN AUGUST .

SO CAUTION FROM ALL SIDES ,BE PREPARED !!!

FUTURE SHOCK -1 !!!

CONTD---------FUTURE SHOCK !!!





E. NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE

IN HOURLY CHARTS

IN DAILY CHARTS
(-VE DIVERGENCE WITH RISING WEDGE PATTERN & O/B INDICATORS)

IN WEEKLY CHARTS
NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE WITH CHANNEL TOP RESISTANCE &O/B INDICATORS)

FUTURE SHOCK !!!

COMING SOON !!! NEXT MONTH !!! AT TRADING TERMINALS NEAR U.





I AM POSTING A HIGH PROBABILITY, MEDIUM TERM BEARISH SCENARIO ,BASED ON FOLLOWING:

A.
THE BREADTH REMAINS WEAK AND THE ADVANCE /DECLINE RATIO IS SHOWING DIVERSION FROM PRICES

B.VIX (VOLATILITY INDEX):

VIX HAS A INVERESE CORELATION WITH NIFTY PRICES.IT SEEMS TO BE BOTTOMING OUT ,SO TIME IS FOR CAUTION AS WE MAY BE NEAR A TOP

C. NIFTY P/E RATIO.

CHECK THE CHART ,WE ARE ENTERING A TOPPING OUT ZONE AT CURRENT 22.78 P/E

D. ATR ( AVERAGE TRUE RANGE):

CHECK THE CHART TO GET THE CORELATION BETWEEN PRICES AND ATR.IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE BOTTOMING OUT AND COUPLED WITH VIX ,WILL CREATE A VOLATILE RANGE EXPANSION IN BEARISH SCENARIO.

CONTD-------FUTURE SHOCK-1 !!!

OPTION ANALYSIS FOR JULY 2010

OBSERVATIONS:

-WEAKER HANDS HAVE BOOKED PROFITS ON CALL WRITING.

-5500 CE STILL HAS A BUILTUP OF 1.23 CRORE O.I. ,CAPPING UPSIDE.

-5300 PE HAS MAX. O.I.ON THE PUT SIDE ,98.7 LACS, CAPPING DOWNSIDE

-5400 PE IS ADDING O.I. AGGRESIVELY,AND NO. OF PUTS AT THIS STRIKE (76.6 LACS) HAVE CROSSED NO. OF CALLS (67 LACS) IN LAST THREE TRADING SESSIONS POINTING TO A PROBABLE EXPIRY ABOVE IT.

- INCREASE IN PUT/CALL RATIO (From below 1.0 to 1.56 ,that is highest in this series), IN LAST TWO DAYS. IS ALSO A POINTER SUPPORTING HIGHER EXPIRY.

TAKE SOME PROFITS

30MIN AND HRLY INDICATORS ARE GETTING HEATED ,BOOK SOME PROFITS WITH AN EYE ON THEM,LIKELY TARGETS 5478-85 NS& ABOVE

HI ALL!!!

LOOK WHAT THEY DID TO MY BUDDY

RAGING BULLS

MARKETS WILL DO THINGS LEAST EXPECTED SO AS TO CAUSE MAXIMUM PAIN      

                

THE RANGE WAS RESOLVED TODAY AND ACTED AS A BEAR  TRAP                                                                                 

5385 WILL BE THE IMP. LEVEL TO WATCH

OPEN  INTEREST ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UPSIDE CAP AT 5500