Sunday, May 8, 2011

Elliott Wave Analysis for Nifty

Have updated the Post with an Alternate count at 5.30 pm today . Please go through.

Checking out the Short Trem Probabilities based on Elliott wave theory for trading Nifty.

The reference Elliott wave count that I have been following is-  CLICK HERE

1. We are currently in the larger 'c' wave down of the 4th wave on the Long term charts as shown in the Reference Post.

2. This 'c' wave will unfold in three waves down. Currently we may be in the 'C' wave Down after completing the 'A' down at 5177 level and the 'B' up at approx 5924 level. (as mentioned in ref. post above ,of target 5800-6000).

3. This 'C' Down may unfold in five wave pattern . We may be in its wave 1 ,which may be in the 4th wave. ( The likely target of this wave 'C' is approx. 4800 levels as estimated in the Long Term Analysis in January this year - CLICK HERE  and discussed in few other posts later as- CLICK HERE ) 

4. This 4th wave has started developing since last trading day. It may take shape as-

# It may be complex correction in alternation to the Wave 2 .

# It may take about couple of weeks to resolve.

# It implies a range trading for the time period of wave 4 in 5450 - 5690 range with a probability of irregular 'b' of this 4th trading below the last low of 5443 (may be to 5350 level).

# 5693 is the Point of Invalidation of this count as per the hard EW rule of wave 4 prohibited to enter wave 1 zone. 

# A pending 5th wave after the wave 4 resolves to approx. 5200 level ( to be checked after completion of wave 4) 

There may be an Alternate Count for it as shown in the EW section of the Post -
CLICK HERE   ( marked in blue ). As per it -

# The larger 'B' ended at 5913 level ( similar to wave 2 in above count)

# We may have finished the wave 1 and are trading in wave 2 of the 'C' down now.

# 5693 will not be a point of Invalidation for it .But irregular 'b' down may still happen for this wave 2.

Enjoy the Surfing .

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Prabakar said...

Thanks RV for the Wave Analysis. Initially I started EW, but lack of Knowledge stopped to continue. Yours and Ilango sir's give clear picture of Nifty with EW.

AAR VEE said...

Hi Prabakar,

I can only suggest that u start reading again, The EWI capsule link i gave last week is the perfect summary to start with also there were 3-4 sessions at JN about it.The links are there on sidebar.Observe developing waves and enjoy surfing.

I find only this method predective though with probabilities but thats what trading is all about ,no cetainities :))

venkatapathy l said...

Your analysis are enriching and makes me more cautious so that I don't take things for granted.

Thanks and regards RV.