Technical Analysis for Nifty

Below are Charts with Observations . Note the levels and signals carefully -

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Tweets for Nifty Watch this Week

Technical Analysis for Nifty

For the whole Month of April till now the range of Nifty is just apprx. 200 points even with important events as Results and RBI policy etc gone by . It may be making most traders uncomfortable as this sideways , low range and low volume Market tends to whipsaws all trading systems. Below are some charts with observations.

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Tweets for Nifty Trading

Following observations along with charts were Tweeted -

Tweets for Nifty Trading

RBI policy was announced today and setup posted yesterday gave a good trade on long side . Below are few Tweets done as observation in the runup to the RBI event .

13-04-12 :

16-04-12

Hope they helped !!!

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Trade the Nifty Chart

The RBI policy is to be announced tomorrow. A simple trade set up with Entry and Stoploss given along with a SAR level to be managed in case of a whipsaw. The move tomorrow may be the base for a trending move in short term.

Technical Analysis for Nifty

Markets have been consolidating (or is it distribution ?) since a month and a half after the recent high of 5630 was made. With RBI policy coming out on 17-04-12 , Markets may also start to come out of this phase and show the way to a trending phase in short term.

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Monday -09-04-12:

 Chart updated with observations . Open was below SAR 5320 and now may be in last leg of ST correction . 5195-5225 is a low risk zone for longs which will be counter trend as of now (look for reversal signals in lower TF ) so caution for position sizing and stoploss.

Wednesday - 11-04-12 :

Nifty Watch :

Nifty Watch

Nifty Trading

Chart updated with observations . Open was below SAR 5320 and now may be in last leg of ST correction . 5195-5225 is a low risk zone for longs which will be counter trend as of now (look for reversal signals in lower TF ) so caution for position sizing and stoploss. ST bias is down now.

A probability of this being the A leg since 5378 (in a-b-c subwaves ) and correction further extending after doing a B up remains . Close above Down Trendline confirms the end of correction.

Any break of lower trendline which will also break the 200dma has further bearish consequences. 

Nifty closes below Daily S3

When Nifty index closes below Support level 3 on Monday

With a decline of  88.5  points (1.66 %) , and Nifty index closing below Support level 3 , no doubt it is terrible start to the week for S&P Nifty index. We looked at the instances when Nifty index closes below Support level 3 ( as calculated with classic pivot formula ) , what is the likely-hood of weekly closing.  Below is the table of all the prior instances where Monday saw a close below S3 level and the Nifty index change for the reminder of the week. This is 18th instance where Nifty had closed below S3 level at the start of the week. The average change for the remainder of the week stands at 1.58%. with 13 out of the 17 trades giving profits when went long at close.

Courtesy : Stocksiq

How to Trade Nifty ???

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When Nifty rises by more than 10% in a Quarter -

 

With Nifty index gaining 14.52% in Jan-mar 2012 quarter , look at how how Nifty index fares in the next quarter, below are the 10% rises that we had in a quarter since 2000 on the Nifty index , along with the details of how the S&P CNX Nifty index performed next quarter. As shown, Nifty gained 11/17 times with an average gain ( including the loosing months) of 6.53% next month , and a median gain of 6.66%.  The maximum loss was -22.87% (  in Mar 2008 )

Courtsey : Stocksiq