Sunday, September 2, 2012

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

Last week's update showed negative divergences in various time frames and Market respected them to move down the whole week . Now this leg of downmove may be nearing an end in the short term . We looks at the probability now -

1. Daily chart :

2. Hourly chart :

3. Fibonacci -1 :

4. Fibonacci -2:

The short term Trend is Down . Support may come in at 5190-5220 zone . If so then we may see a retrace up this week . The nature of the bounce will decide whether the downmove has ended or will continue after the bounce .


chetas said...

Whenever I see your weekend Post, A joy arises in my heart.

I feel thrilled to read the post, today i catch myself smiling, the moment I saw you have updated the blog.

Thankyou verymuch

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

As usual, very good & unbiased analysis.



Piyush Sharda said...

good analysis rv..

SP said...

good work again. Thanks a lot :)

Nilesh Patil said...

Thank you RV sir for your all alter-net counts.

Vandhana Karthick said...

Good prediction and way of presentation in website is good and nice to see..

AAR VEE said...

Sincere Thanks for U all regular blog followers for going through posts and leaving positive comments,

Thanks Kumarji ,Chetas ,PS, SP,Nilesh and Vandhana.


Fire said...


Please take my pranaam in this Teacher's day!

AAR VEE said...

Hi Fire ,

Thanks ,I reciprocate the same to you . May the Market be our Teacher.


karthikg said...

Nifty may move to somewher around 5400-5430 and then correct again before launching itself into higher orbit possibly on 18 sept (aided by rate cut ??).From thereon 5800-5900 should be attained easily though the movement towards it could be volatile.Time is very difficult to estimate but i guess by Oct end or max by Nov mid we should be around 5800-5900+.

Anonymous said...



karthikg said...

It will be a herculean task indeed but it will correct fast to get rid of any divergences and cross it next week and move towards 5400-5440 range before giving a nice correction.

karthikg said...

I guess crossing 5400-5450 band wont be an easy task as many were short and so i guess we could have volatile sessions with perhaps nifty falling to even 5280-300 levels before attempting to cross that 5400-5440 band from wherein a decent correction
can be expected.So next week we would perhaps trade in a 5280-5440 band and then breakout further in subsequent weeks.

Anonymous said...

I still think around 4996-5029 shud come before again crossing 5630 and that will definetely depend on the present rally reigned in around less than 5350


AAR VEE said...

Thanks Shailesh and Karthikg for ur inputs.

AAR VEE said...

Not able to update a new post due to net connectivity issue .

So the bounce is on as per this post from the support zone and trendline mentioned. Now its the nature of bounce that will decide its a new impulse or a corrective of the previous fall.

Indicator wise there is no weakness in daily or hourly TF.

Price wise we have closed above 20dma at 5335 and if held on closing basis will lead to further upmove.

Option data suggests at developing support at 5300 levels and probable resistance at 5600 with initial resistance near 5400

EW wise we may be in wave 3 from the low of 5216.

Closing above 5390 will be positionally bullish and likewise closing below 5260 will be bearish in the short term.

5300-5310 are support levels below 5335 and 5450,5515,5530 are targets above.

SP said...

Dear AAR VEE Sir,
Thanks for posting your views despite of having connectivity issues..:)

AAR VEE said...

Eod Update:

Few important observations are-

Nifty Futures shed near 9% in o.i.,Looks like some profit taking in longs at higher levels.

5300 puts have exceeded 5400 calls in o.i. and now highest o.i. on call side at 5600 with small margin.Looks bullish with scope of range expansion to come.

Todays low of apprx 5350 will be important level to watch on closing basis. Bullish above it and bearish below it on closing basis for short term.

Thanks SP for ur comment.

karthikg said...

Now that we have reached 5400++ the correction could begin anytime from between 5400-5450 and perhaps go back to 5270-5320 range before embarking on a fresh upmove again towards 5800-5900++ over the next few weeks.

Parminder said...

RV sir, thanks for ur valuable input as always u give a thorough input with ur charts.
Missed ur weekend post which contains valuable knowledge .

Karthikg said...

I am not sure if we could correct now that a slew of positive news has been unleashed .we could get to 5800-900 the next month itself irrespective of the corrections in between.

KRG said...

Shailesh: What are the chances that we may have ended the major C at 52xx (Sep 6).. The whole Feb-Sep 6 can be looked at as a diametric?

USD/INR also seemed to have topped out on the same day?


AAR VEE said...

Thanks Parminder,Karthikg,KRG, for ur comments and views on markets.