Friday, April 1, 2011

The Dark Horse Wins the Nifty Derby !!!

The 'Dark Horse' EW count alternative of Nifty starting a probable 'B' wave has proved to be the valid count for this complex correction. It was first mentioned in the 25th Feb post (click here) and has been mentioned regularly in later posts on 26/2 (click here ), 13/3 (click here) ,27/3 ( click here ) ,27/3 (click here) .

It helps to keep alternatives of trade in stride along with their points of initiation and invalidation.One must have the flexibility to trade them with proper money management.

Came across the beautiful lyrics of a Pink Floyd song (so apt for trading too) -

You shout in your sleep
Perhaps the price is just too steep
Is your conscience at rest
If once put to the test?

You awake with a start
To just the beating of your heart

Just one man beneath the sky
Just two ears,Just two eyes

You set sail across the sea
Of long past thoughts and memories
Childhood's end ,Your fantasies
Merge with harsh realities

And then as the sail is hoist
You find your eyes are growing moist
And all the fears never voiced
Say you have to make your final choice

Who are you and who am I
To say we know the reason why?

Some are born Some men die
Beneath one infinite sky
There'll be war There'll be peace
But everything  one day will cease
All the iron turned to rust
All the proud men turned to dust
And so all things, time will mend
So this song will end .


Tarique Anwar said...

Hi, nice to see your post again, and a congrats to spot the possible B wave early.. I need a help here from you now.. though I agree mostly with the wave count you are proposing now (A 6339-5180 divided in 3 waves, B wave developing now and a possible C wave in 5 waves, which can start anytime now).. how can we be sure that this is not wave 2 of 3, that is wave 3 has started from 6180 and has just completed wave1 at 5180 and we are in wave 2 of BIG wave 3?

AAR VEE said...

Hi Tarique ,

Ha ha ha ,

endless counts and all valid. U may be right with this wave 2 (A-B-C)scenario ,big 3 down to start (Imagine,Tony caldaro saying big 3 up to start on the upside !!!,will post tmrw on alternatives).

I am no expert to help u but can share my view.

what i look for is the possible wave structure to suit the overall count,the one which hourly charts validate in lower TF and daily in above. secondly Indicators as 34,5 histo. and daily/weekly stochs correspond to,do also give some idea.

But largely EW for me is to trade on right side in short term rather than be perfectly correct. One may go wrong always but having proper stops at turns (points of invalidation) will help to catch the trend again.

here for trading purpose, ur wave 3can be my C down.:))(4 and 5 can be extended C):))

Bottom line is that it should improve the bottom line of the a/c.

Tarique Anwar said...

yes counts are endless and EW would be mostly used to get the direction right.. i have read EW experts who can by volume profile, MACD, sentiment, different TF plus some more (maybe) can correctly tell what wave we are in.. wave B and wave 2 here can be very similar, and you can be mistaken between the 2 as long as you can be.. anyway lets see how nifty behaves in coming days.. we are always there to track it! meantime i will try to see if i can really distinguish between them!!