Sunday, December 14, 2014

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

Last Post had calculation for the upmove from 7723 to be in final phase and a likely culmination above 8550+ . Now further update -

UPDATE : 07-12-14

1. The basic targets for V-3 (8575-8610) as calculated in above chart have been achieved.

2. The top at 8627 may have done the vth of the V-3.

3. The TL joining the lows for vth from 8353 up has been broken in last session.

4. After the top of 8627, a 5 wave down and a probable 3 wave up may have been done in 5 min tf ( or probably a last minor up may be pending)

5. The bias is shifting downwards with resistance now in 8550-8610 range. The S/L for this probability is 8628.

6. Break of 8500 and close below it will confirm the downward bias and then may tgt 8400-8350.

7. Any close above 8625 will negate this probability and upmove may resume for higher tgts near 8750 apprx

Check the charts carefully for short term and medium term trading insight -




The Trading Bias is Down in Short and Medium term. 
Only on close above 8425 the short term bias changes to Neutral as of now.

Short term likely targets on downside at apprx 8175 and then apprx 8050.
Medium term Target zone on downside is apprx 7540-7725.


AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 21-12-14

1. Short term targets of 8175 and 8050 apprx have been done and skidded further down.

2. Bounce has been sharp with reversal pattern in candlesticks and hidden bullish divergence in indicators.

3. Now as per EW it may be A-4 done at low of 7961 and now be are bouncing in B-4 up

which after a range bound move will open down for C-4.

Alternately it can also be start of next Impulse up from low of 7961 which can form new highs above 8627

Let it resolve over next few sessions for clarity.

4. Above 50dma , we may retest 20dma where the market may give a new message as to further up or forming a range with 20dma+- as Resistance and 50-100 dma as Support in the short term.

chetas said...

Thanks Aarvee for the update.

Can you explain more about the hodden divergence, it is hourly or daily charts?


FNO HOUSE said...

dear sir today nifty low 8253 so C wave of doun is start...?

gaurav said...

hi aar vee thanks for all the analysis and also for the wonderful trade wisdom
very useful

request you to post the divergence that u wrote about for learning purpose


AAR VEE said...

Thanks Aarvee what timeframe would you expect for this correction to 7500 pls?


AAR VEE said...

@chetas @gaurav

Hidden bullish divergence happens when price is making a higher low (HL), but the oscillator is showing a lower low (LL).

U can check the daily momentum indicators as rsi and macd histogram wrt 7723 and 7961 lows. The price is making HL and indicators are making corresponding LL.

It suggests continuation of trend or atleast arrest of down trend.

AAR VEE said...


We may still be in B-4 as of now

AAR VEE said...

@Akhil :

The downside probability is in the range of 7540-7700 for a probable 4th wave.

As per the current scenario we may get a Triangle in B wave of the 4th or even the whole 4th may end up sideways between apprx range of 8400 and 8000 as a Triangle.

The downside targets are a probability if only 7961 breaks convincingly and closes below it.

If the above probability happens we may get the probable downside range in this Jan series or early Feb.
But if we get a Triangle in 4th we may not go down below 8000 apprx.