Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Trading Nifty

Below are some observations which were posted as comments in the last post - 

Blogger AAR VEE said...


Some important observations today :

1. Option data has changed significantly today with 5300 puts exceeding the 5400 calls . Aggresive writing at 5300 pe when near to 5300 level and unwinding of 5400 ce later are bullish signal. We now should check its followup.

2. Good addition of 4% in NF with todays upmove.

3. 5320 now is the level to be watched on clsoing basis for upmove to sustain. Bearish below it and bullish above it on closing basis.

4. EW has moved to complete the min requirement of an a-b-c move from Fridays low. 5378 remains invalidation of this count.Confirmation below 5294.

August 13, 2012 11:48 PM

Blogger AAR VEE said...


The short term bearish probability was invalidated by crossing 5378 in last session though signals against it started coming on mondays trading session itself and likewise obeservations updated eod.

Now considering the move from 5032 as a 5 wave move up( calculations as mentioned in last post), we may now move positionally to 5450 ,5510and later above 5610-80 in this series/first week next series.

One should now keep 5320 as positional s/l on closing basis and follow the trend till invalidates.

          August 15, 2012 9:24 PM

Blogger AAR VEE said...


The EW count may not be a 5 wave move up from 5032 but may be a double or triple ZZ in formation. The move today and subwave counts are not fitting in a regular 5 wave move.Will try and review detailed counts on weekend.

But still the trend is up with positional s/l at 5320 as suggested from last two trading sessions .
August 16, 2012 10:29 PM

Further to above observations are self explanatory charts :

Short Term Uptrend continues till we close below 5300 .


Nilesh Patil said...

Good Morning Sir,
Thanks For the detailed update.

SP said...

Many thanks for this follow up post:)

Kumar Technicals said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

As usual very good analysis, always alert & agile.



AAR VEE said...

Thanks dear Kumarji ,Nilesh and SP for visiting the post and leaving ur comments.


Some imp. observations .

1. 5300 pe have crossed one cr. open interest making a point of invalidation below it for positional longs.

2. 5400 pe today crossed 5400 ce with huge addition of 25 lac+ in open interest . Now new base developing at 5400 for further upmove in short term.

3.5500 ce also appraoching near one cr. o.i.so we may see a reaction before conquering 5500 level .

4.Apprx. 5450 is now imp fibo level of 78.6% for 4770-5630 and apprx.weekly pivot R2. It will be a potential resistance level .

5. 5380 is crucial level on closing basis for further upmove with 5320 as invalidation of up trend on closing basis.

Karthikg said...

Was expecting nifty to touch 5800 by 28 August but now it may only touch 5600 odd levels by 28august and then a sharp correction could take it back to 5300 before a final assault that would take nifty to 5800 to 5900 kind of levels by sept 13 give or take a few weeks.

K P Singh said...

As usual superb analysis,plz give update on nifty EOD and guide for next day move also.


Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

can you do EW for opto circuit?
today it has fallen by 12% with huge volumes.it has completed 62% retracement of rise from 54 to 252 today.

thanks !

AAR VEE said...

@KP Singh ,

Thanks . U may find eod update at imp levels here in comment section if reqd.

@ Anonymous ,

I folllow and trade only Nifty . Sorry !!

AAR VEE said...


Resistance near 5450 was mentioned in last update. In todays trading near this resistance level ,an ending diagonal pattern since 5294 was sighted for completion along with the last leg of it also in an ed pattern intraday first half. This probability of short term top being formed was shared at twitter along with a chart for the same -pic.twitter.com/vNpIecDh

Now some observations -
- Lower trendline of the ED has been broken and ST top is in at 5449.

- Support may come in at 5320-48 range.

- The EW probability of correction after probable W-X-Y is on with first leg of a/1 and b/2 completed today. 5320 on closing basis may decide whether correction is going to be deep else its hrly only with resumption of uptrend.

-Option O.I. now points to a broader range of 5320-5450 .with 5300 pe and 5500 ce having o.i apprx 1 cr each.

Karthikg said...

Timing as usual remains a suspect.it looks like its going to take quite some time for nifty to touch 5800 to 5900.maybe 8 to 10 weeks or more.next week it would in the range of 5300 to 5470 before breaking out to 5800 to 5900 in subsequent weeks

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