Sunday, August 26, 2012

Trading Nifty

Nifty is slowly grinding up on weekly basis with no correction of consequence . The indicators in different time frames are showing negative diversions wrt the price movement along with a completion of a wave count . What to expect next -

Check out the self explanatory charts of different time frames below along with the observations for each .

Weekly :

Daily :

Hourly :

5 Min :

Positional targets for correction if the High is in place :

Following chart was shared on Twitter,( Click Here to follow ), on 23-08-12.

So as of now a short term top looks in place at 5449 but since the FII turnover data is bullish along with Option open interest ( 5300-5500 ) combined with an expiry week trading ,where the demand-supply condition of this series will be squared off , an extended upmove probability above 5450 cannot be ruled out . Hence till 5450 is not crossed its a sell on rise market which weakens below 5370 but above 5450 the upmove may extend to 5510-5640 zone . 


Rahul K. Jamkar said...

GM sir and thank you very much for the clean and clear update.

Rahul K. Jamkar said...

GM sir and thank you very much for the clean and clear update.

Nilesh Patil said...

Good Morning Sir,
Thank You for your crystal clear analysis.

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Superb analysis as usual & blockbuster technical movie, keep continue good work:)



SP said...

Thanks for sharing your unbiased observations :)

AAR VEE said...

Thanks dear Rahul ,Nilesh ,SP and Kumarji for ur kind appreciation .
Its wonderful to have your continous support to keep the blog going. Thanks & Regards.

Now looks like a 5 waves move down from the top of which we may be in the 3rd wave.It points to a positional deeper correction further ( may be in a ZZ of 5-3-5).5390 now is level to watch on closing basis for invalidation .

KRG said...

A pattern like this in traditional TA had to break down... But as I mentioned elsewhere, after 2003, a number of times I had seen the opposite result.... Lets see, in any case traders like you can quickly adjust.... Nice charts RV


Smita said...

Thanks Aarvee ji ,for your analysis .


AAR VEE said...

@KRG ,

We have to trade whats unfolding in front of us with risk measured in that probability . 5600-5800 target calls had become common ,may be the boat became heavy that side.


Thanks Smitaji for your comment.

Piyush Sharda said...

good analysis rv,

as u follow fii flows i have seen in last few weeks the cash inflows is matched with stock future outflows. can large part of this cash inlow be just arbitrage buy cash sell futures to take small returns??

Anonymous said...

4996-5014 shud come first before resuming its journey towards 5630-5710 but this expiry to break 5300 in future is difficult looking at the open interest so the slide shud begin from next contract


karthikg said...

Anything is possible in the markets but i think the fall may not be as much as 4996-5014 and may get curtailed somewhere in the range 5220-5260.After that i think the fresh move towards 5800-5900 will gain momentum.

AAR VEE said...

@PS ,

Have not dissected the FII data as u have done . Cant be very sure about the insight as there is no way to check on it . Going by the past data if we check 2010 data which was almost similar bullish data where FII's poured in lot of cash buy in a small range and market looked set to cross the all time high easily but opposite happened and in 2010 year end we started the slide down. So this may justify ur theory of arbitrage trades for safety( that too near Market Tops seeing the VIX and ATR)

Piyush Sharda said...


the way a fund manager has to think is slightly different than us they have to perform when market rallies. because if market rallies and they act smart by not investing and if market rallies more to dent their short term performance they get fired. if market falls they can justify poor performance. so always when international news flow is +ve fii money will be +ve i have broadly observed it. if india screws up bad thats different. but if u get money at 0.5- 1% and u make 10%-15% pa in arbitrage by buying cash and selling futures till exipiry its no brainer.

karthikg said...

A retest of 5260 today and then bernanke is your uncle:-).We are very near the next stage of the breakout and once we are done with a a retest of 5260 today i think we should zoom towards 5600-5900 very very soon.Possibly starting next week.

Anonymous said...

5164-5178 could give us a reprieve for short time and from there 5279-5286 is possible before resuming its journey towards 4993-5014


Karthikg said...

Shailesh your targets have been very good even earlier so you could be right too. I guess if we dont move above 5400 next week then what you say could very well happen.

AAR VEE said...

Dear Karthikg and Shailesh ,

Thanks for sharing ur views .