Thursday, July 14, 2011

Update for Nifty 15-07-2011

As posted in Weekend Post and last Update , we are in a correction within a correction of Higher TF , hence Whipsaws and Test of crucial levels are expected.Today was one such day where the Weekly SAR of 5625 got whipsawed .

Now for Tomorrow's trading one can consider following  -

1. Nifty closed at apprx. 5dema level of 5600. Todays high was the high of this Week and last three days are in uptrend with HH and HL .

2. Broader Trading Range may be between 5550-5650. (as per Emas and Pivots)

3. This range may be traded with intraday SAR of 5575 as suggested by 5d Volume Profile. The supports and resistances are marked in the chart.

4.  Options data suggest 5500 as a good support on closing basis ,5600 as conflict level and 5700 as immediate resistance level . Fine tuning it with 5demas and volume profile gives 5530 as good support on closing basis ,5640/50 as conflict level and 5710 as resistance.

5. The EW count suggests two equally probable counts for tmrw. The Preferable count in Red suggests a downmove of b wave initially  , then may be the c wave up, whereas the Blue alternate suggests a trend day with down bias. Hence the use of intraday SAR may help to judge the bias and trade.

All indications of a Choppy day ahead , so trade light and carry Positionals home only on closing below 5500 or above 5650.


Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Very good picture again, i fully agree that crucial time ahead. Bulls & bears both will fight for their survival. Lets see how it unfolds, good work.



AAR VEE said...

Hi Kumarji,

Thanks ,
Broader picture may still not be clear for yet another week may be. Rightly said ,we have to wait and see how it unfolds.


Rajib said...


How are you doing?

Nicely said, "we can always choose how to respond".

To me that's what is trading!

Though levels, resistance, support etc. are important from technical point of view, at the end of the day it all depends how we choose to respond to those levels is what makes a trade success or failure!


AAR VEE said...

Hi Rajib,

Long time no see :))

Hope ur enjoying the fruits of marriage.

Thats the secret of success in trading as per me. Response includes all -risk management ,money management ,timing etc.

All the best and take care.
Say Hi to ur partner.

jagannathan said...

Some one has stated as per elliot analysis there may be a fall of 200 to 250 points from 5660.Is it possible

AAR VEE said...


Anything is possible in markets :),fall of 200-250 pts or a move up of similar quantum above 5650.
Lets not keep any bias and let market do the final talking ,we will reap after the noise stops.