Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Trading Notes

Last two days of  Nifty trading has not produced the impulse down below 5360 and neither has  crossed the 5430 level as analyzed in the Weekend Post - CLICK HERE for the detailed analysis and insight.

Following are the developing observations -

1. The absence on any trending downmove puts a question mark on the start of the 5th wave(as suggested in the last post) , It should still be considered a continuation of the 4th. A likely Triangle pattern of the 4th can be as shown in the chart below. It also is emphasized by the low volumes of the trade.

2. The 'e' leg of the 4th may be the last leg of the upmove in this pattern, so one should be cautious now in counter trend trades (long) as it may or may not reach the desired level and end truncated.The Volume Profile Resistance shown in the Weekend Post , near 5500/10 level may hold for this upmove.

3. The 2 day trading has developed the high volume node at apprx. 5365 level which also is the trendline support of the Triangle.Trading below it now will open the doors for further downmove . Also the volumes at this support are on the lower side in the larger TF profile.

4. Today's trading was resulted by the positive diversion developing since weekend , and now the intraday chart has developed a negative diversion. It should be traded with caution as any opening upmove above 5450 can negate it. (may give an initial dip followed by upmove resisted at 5430/50 tomorrow if 5360 holds)

5. As suggested in the Weekend Post , now 5450 should be used as SAR to manage trade in case of any upmove . 


AAR VEE said...

Hi Avinash,

The chart i use is a simple Volume profile,i.e. volume at particular price levels (horizontal bars are volumes at prices in front of them).

I use free charts available at 'volumedigger.com' site.(Symbol of Nifty is .NSEI),u get data for upto 10days(enough for shortterm swing) in different time variables.u can follow it live or eod.also Stock charts are there.(symbol as per NSE)

Unknown said...

fantastic work aar-vee.
its just very simple to understand.

AAR VEE said...

Hi jigs,

Thanks ,
Hope it also helps to make some money in simple easy manner.

Unknown said...

i follow JNSAR trading nifty and banknifty. cause i am not full time trader but it helps me lot to understand market.
do you need any charting software??

AAR VEE said...

Its nice to manage trade with the methods u follow.
I too am basically positional/swing trader.More stress on money and position management.

I use chart nexus eod.GCI MT4 in real time and other free softwares.
what are u suggesting??

Unknown said...

i must give you gift rather than asking you want or not
i will mail you as early as possibe

Unknown said...

i have amibroker for you

Unknown said...

i am not vendor of ami.
but i have it and i want to share it with all you experts like you ilango sir, DRsir

AAR VEE said...

Thanks jigs,

U may send it at my mail.
but i should let u know that i am not a very tech savvy person and almost averse to softwares :),it may be sometime before i get to know it and use it. My friends from JN are using it and i get afraid listening to all data downloading ,afl etc.:)
Thanks any way ,it will be great help.

Unknown said...

just 2 thing to download
yes you must download eod file daily
but it will take just some seconds
regarding afl i will sent you some fine afl too man.
the biggest benifit for you is it will save your time all you need in single software with some clicks

AAR VEE said...

Thoughtful of u ,

mridul said...

hi rv
the effect of negative divergencs already taken places, nifty from 5444 to 5416 in last hr,so now we see it a fresh from tomo morning

AAR VEE said...

Hi mridul,

Since the intraday 5min indicators,stochs and rsi have not exhausted in oversold region ,macd below zero as on close and moreover the higher TF of hourly in overbought region can extend the effect and give a dip initially.
It has a good probability but then always to be traded with strict s/l,

Shradha Saburi said...

@ Aar Vee Sir,
Thank you verymuch you have got good teaching skill for newbees.

AAR VEE said...

@Shradha Saburi-

Who am I to teach? -'Sabka Malik Ek'


@Aarvee ...

Lucid Explanation and charts too .... I think that if NF has to break down then today's up move was required may be the MF's have adjusted their NAV's ... Looking for fall after a False break out on the upside

AAR VEE said...

Hi PT,

Ya all the pointers towards a pending fall.We all can take just educated guess keeping caution against our own bias.It helps to keep the a/c healthy :)