To keep the 'date' with the 'Expiry' week , following are my observations that may hold good till expiry on 24-02-11. (Friday excluded)
1. Expiry Week trading is taken over by the Market dynamics pertaining to demand & supply of various types of players, the Long term players' rollover to next series, single series positional players' liquidation ,Intraday players activism etc. The Expiry is the sum total effect of all this and more.
2. Feb. series has seen both a big fall and a big rise with good volumes. It becomes all the more tricky to judge the Expiry if the Markets have trended both ways.
3. Last Week was traded in the range of 5400 - 5600.
4. Last trading day had record turnover in F&O segment and especially in Index options.
5. FII's were buyers in the last trading session for 200 cr+
6. Last Two trading sessions had a VWAP of apprx. 5520 NF with good volumes.
7. Volume profiles , the Volumes at a Price , for 5day and 10 day are identical with High Volume Nodes at apprx. 5485-5500 levels .
8. The Option Analysis shows the built up of Max. Open Interest on Put side at 5400 strike ( 1 cr+) and that at Call side at 5600 strike (apprx.86 lacs). The Maximum Pain level ,the one which causes max. pain to majority is at 5500 levels.
9. Interestingly , The 5400-5415 range has the 5day lema,5week lema and 5month lema in it .
10. Though the last session close was below all important averages as 5dema,20dema ,5week ema etc. (making the Trend down in all Time Frames), It was a positive week with close above the last Week's high of 5542 and also it made a new high above the previous high of the Feb ,series at 5556.
My bias is that this Week's trading upto expiry will be in the range of 5400-5600 ,may be with a whipsaw below 5400 . The expiry can be expected in the range of 5500 +/- 50 points, i.e. between 5450 and 5550 ,probably in the lower half of the range below 5525.
(One may also keep 5415 level as a SAR ,Trade short below it and long above it , booking profits quickly, trade light and nimble)
Have a nice Trading Week ahead !!