Sunday, October 10, 2010

Weekend Analysis

1. Volume Profiles

The 2d volume profile shows upmove above 6120 and resistance at 6185 levels.

The 10d profile shows positional selling above 6175 levels.There is some support at 6030 level.

2. Indicators

The hourly indicators show exhausted indicators ready for a bounce ,may be after a double dip / retest of lows with +ve diversion.

The intraday indicators show positive diversion ,which maintained will result in a bounce.

The short term daily indicators are in sell mode ,yet to exhaust ,indicating of some more downside probability.

3. Option Analysis

The support of the series seems to be at 6000 level with  max. put open interest of apprx. 85 lac built up at this strike ,where as some resistance at 6200 level with max. call built up of apprx. 56 lac at this strike.
6000 level can be considered a good support for this series going ahead , breaking of which will bring in larger ,swift correction.

4. Pattern & Fibo-Retrace

A broad Channel pattern has been broken in last trading day ,suggesting caution.The support came from another channel pattern with previous high of 6070 level.

5. EW

As suggested in last weekend's post on EW-,
The first modest target (1.618 of the 1st wave)  for the 5th wave of apprx. 6235, has been achieved. Now as per EW probabilities, above 6235 apprx. target will be 6345 ,6395.

Below 5965 ,the 5th wave will be considered over at the recent high and the downmove will be considered to be a part of the larger A-B-C correction to unfold.

The broader trading range  for next week may be 6030-6230 ,with max.action in the zone of 6070-6185 level. It may be a range bound week with no breakout in either direction i.e. below 6000 or above 6230.

Have a profitable trading week ahead.!!!


Alpesh & Daxesh said...

Hi dear AAR VEE,
plz tell me all this level are nf or ns ?

manu said...

pa ji.. thnx..

AAR VEE said...

Hi alpesh,

The levels are for Nifty spot only .

Hi manu,


mynac said...

Dear Ilango Said,
"I see "Aarvee", making unbelievable progress."
Congrats.Your Analysis is always really to the point & useful.

AAR VEE said...


Thanks ,just trying to execute what little i know in a simple manner as to help friends (most of them are intraday rather than positional).Hope the efforts turns into profits for friends.

BTW check out 6000 puts they are showing unwinding ,an alert signal.

r m said...


Great Work! Thanks!

I am confused about 6000PE remark. The NSE site shows that 6000PE added in open interests for all the three series today:

Oct2010 +352,150
Nov2010 +43,800
Dec2010 +24,050


AAR VEE said...

Hi rm,

Ya pointed this out intentionally.Go to option chain at nse site and click 'quote' for 6000pe ,u will get the actual figure that is less apprx 4lac shares.I have been pointing out regularly that people checking option O.I.intraday should be careful since nse does not updates it in real time and some times even eod too,
when the next day starts u come to know a very different figure.
(I have kept record of their data and once pointed out to mok when shai got his expiry figure wrong because he based it on wrong data a couple of months ago.)
This figure is to be double checked always.

I also follow the stock fortune data ,which i have found reliable till is

Pl. note todays reading of nse site and then check tmrw morning u will get the game and all this makes this figure more imp. for me.
conspiracy theory??why not with 1lac crore put in daily ,why not?

mo k said...

stockfortune data:
NIFTY OPTIDX PE 28-Oct-2010 6,000 7,975,200 OI [-393,700 COI]

nse site
8,721,050 OI [352,150 COI]

thanks RV, wow, gotta be careful ...
the biggies always seem to wear falsies. :D

RV, thanks for this fantastic detailed analysis.

mo k said...

and myfno site

mo k said...

sorry, the above is for Call6000

for Put 6000 it is
still negative only.

mo k said...

RV, :)
NSE bhavcopy says its option chain is wrong and stockfortune data is CORRECT :)
NIFTY 11-Oct-2010 28-Oct-2010 6000.00 7975200 OI [-393700 cOI]

so COI is negative, OI is DOWN,.

r m said...

A truckload of thanks RV!

Even the "quote" link on the option chain gives the wrong OI. It is only the derivative quote which gives the correct and updated OI.

I guess NSE is sleeping on the job.

The ODIN and Indiainfoline's trade terminal are also cheerfully passing out the wrong OI to us! I will never buy Financial Technology share - they are as bad as NSE!

In future (or should i say option!) I'll be extremely wary of informations dispensed by NSE. :)


AAR VEE said...

hi mok,

can u add the download link of nse bhavcopy at the bottom of the blog ,say in link section.It will be helpful to all

mo k said...

hi RV,
sure, will do :)

mo k said...

RV, ok done !!

AAR VEE said...

Thanks mok

AAR VEE said...

hi mok ,rm

The 6000pe figure was an alert as mentioned and its importance due to hiding of it came true.just see 87 lac turned 79 lac ,difference of 10%+!!!!.Keep a third eye on these games ,they are good reconer for things to come

wormwood34 said...

thanks aarvee...nice informative post..

AAR VEE said...

Thanks ww34