Sunday, June 2, 2013

Nifty Update : Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis

Added Updated Chart as on 09-06-13 in the Post below . Brief in Comment section.

Blogger AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 26-05-13

The move down has almost done the target apprx. 5930 and retraced 38.2% of the upmove from 5477-6229.

Holding this low of last session on closing basis ,there are chances of a bounce . This may target 6080-6120-6170

close above 6170 will propel prices to new high above 6229.

Close below 5930 will be further bearish to target 5850-5770.

EW probabilities indicate-
1. Bullish, If A=5477-6229 B=6229-5930 then C up to come targeting new highs to levels as mentioned in above post .

2. Sideways , If A=5477-6229 ,a-B=6229-5930 ,b-B up to come sideways this week followed by c-B down later.

3.Few other probabilities like may be in 4th wave, down from 6229 ,and 5th to target low again and probably lower early in week and then retrace up for a corrective later on .

5930 may hold on closing basis and bounce to be seen in expiry week with volatile sessions.

May 26, 2013 at 9:37 PM
Further : 


rajapvt said...

Thanks for the update.

alpesh kanpariya said...

Dear " rajivsir " ,
One reqvest to update hourly chart with EW count
Please one agine. Please for that

AAR VEE said...

@ alpesh kanpariya ,

There is a high probability that a 5 wave move from 6134 has got completed at today's low of 5869.Now if this low holds tmrw then we may see an upmove developing.

This also implies an a-b-c move from 6229 may have ended (at apprx 50% retrace of 5477-6229) at today's low.

For this probability to materialize the price should move above today's high . and low should not break obviously else it invalidates.(s/l at 5869 for this /15 min orb break down)

Alternately if it breaks the low today , the positive diversions in hrly gets negated and then we may be in a bearish 3rd wave from 6229 as seen in daily chart.

alpesh kanpariya said...

Hi dear,
Thx a lot for your guidence
But i seen in hourly chart may be we r in irregular wave 4 buz from todaya low we r got tiny 1,2,3,4,5 wave of wave c-4 .... also last 2 days wave strukcher devlop like we r in wave 4(irregular)
I see right view or not ? Pla guide

alpesh kanpariya said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AAR VEE said...

@ alpesh kanpariya ,

I reviewed the probability as mentioned by you ,it seems quite possible that we may be in an irregular 4th since low of 5884 the c-4 of which was done at yesterdays high.As per this we may move down to whipsaw yesterday's low of 5869 in a wave 5.

Caution reqd , as larger trend is down so any contra positions for long in anticipation of count completion should be done with hedging or on confirmation only with s/l.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE :09-06-13
The Trend is down but with a probability of short term reversal this week.

1. Prices have corrected almost 50% retrace of the last rise from 5477-6229.

2.The NF open interest shows closing of weak longs in roll over for this series. The NF o.i. may not support a bigger down move from here till signs of positional shorts appear.

3.5900 puts are being written from day one of the down move and have max. open interest on both sides as of now.Though prices closed below 5900,followup has to be seen.

4.Pattern wise a Bullish Wolfe wave pattern is maturing .It has higher targets and will discuss later.

5. Prices were supported by 50dma & at apprx range as shown in chart above but closed below 50dma in the range. Followup has to be watched.

6.EW probability points to a near completion of a 5 wave move from 6134 top. We may be in the 5th wave .

7.Though the low of 5869 was held narrowly in last session there is a probability of whipsawing it.

8.Price wise any close above 50dma, 5890,may be a signal of short term low being made.Hrly closing above 5930 and holding it will also be an intraday signal for bullish probability.

So the support range of 5840-65 as shown in chart is still valid. Only close below 5840 will be further bearish.

AAR VEE said...

Trading in Open first hour has thrown up a Bearish EW Probability that of a B wave Triangle trading since 05-06-13.

Break of 5869-71 double bottom may signal a C wave down move. Invalid now only on close above 5970.

Caution/hedge/ proper s/l required now as its on cross roads.

AAR VEE said...

Update: 11-06-13

1. Support zone at 5840 broken and closed below it.

2. Close below 200dma at 5795 apprx.

3. Option data changed today with 5900 pe shedding o.i and 5700 pe gaining it. 6100 ce now becomes the strike with max o.i.

4. NF today added 11.5% o.i. with slide, which may be positional shorts.

5. Immediate Target down in zone of 5720-50 . Resistance now at 5840-65. Pivot is 200dma.

alpesh kanpariya said...

Hi, dear Rajivsir,
Last 5 years nifty make ascending tringle in monthly chart so thats y 5600-5750 band is major support zone..
.all major mkt( dow, ftcs, cac)are give last 10-15 year tl breakout and in hangsang and india are waitting for in tringle breakout....
. Rupee is run for all time low but look tried 59-60 is looking for major resis. And devlope nagative div. In rsi (also in very overbought zone) .so we see from here to 5-10 % correction any time ? May be...
.bur pricewise we close below 200 SMA last 2 days . We follow price...trand is our friend..
. In major nifty stock seen near end of downside.
So lets see that nifty what should doing 5600-5750 area .we see from here 10-15% upmove & see breakout from 6350 zone.
Please guide

Anonymous said...

Hello. And Bye.