Sunday, May 19, 2013

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

Global liquidity flows , probable current a/c deficit to go down with Crude & Gold prices, and Interest rate cut probability on low inflation data , help maintaining the Trend on Upside . Now further -





Larger trend remains UP, Short term weakness only below a close of 6150 now, in that case support near apprx 6000. Positional targets on upside apprx. 6270,6350 . 


paddy said...

Thanks RV!! Your views are always useful for the week ahead!!

Parminder said...

Thanks Rv for ur educative post after long time

anonymous@V said...

looks like time to book profits thought the trend seems to be up....thanks and cheers RV

rajapvt said...

Thank you for the update, somehow this week I missed to watch the blog, and profit booking too at 6200 :D

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Paddy ,Parminder, anonymous@v & rajapvt for ur comments.

The move on Monday whipsawed the top TL of Expanding Triangle and entered in a correction zone.

6170-80 now becomes a Positional Resistance. Downside Targets may be apprx 6070 ,6030 now in couple of days.

Caution for shorts near 6070 level, as if this corrective is an a-b-c from 6229 then as of now c=a comes at 6070 which is also the 61.8% retrace of 5970-6229.

San said...

Nice post RV!

alpesh kanpariya said...

Dear. RV,
Need some update, where nifty going, support or in which wave we r?

AAR VEE said...

Thanks SAN for leaving comment.

6070,6030 done today and much lower.
May be in its 3rd/C after doing the expanding triangle in 5th.

Now the lower TL of ET broken today and 20dma at 6040 are positional resistance. Supports at 5930,5890 as of now.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 26-05-13

The move down has almost done the target apprx. 5930 and retraced 38.2% of the upmove from 5477-6229.

Holding this low of last session on closing basis ,there are chances of a bounce . This may target 6080-6120-6170

close above 6170 will propel prices to new high above 6229.

Close below 5930 will be further bearish to target 5850-5770.

EW probabilities indicate-
1. Bullish, If A=5477-6229 B=6229-5930 then C up to come targeting new highs to levels as mentioned in above post .

2. Sideways , If A=5477-6229 ,a-B=6229-5930 ,b-B up to come sideways this week followed by c-B down later.

3.Few other probabilities like may be in 4th wave, down from 6229 ,and 5th to target low again and probably lower early in week and then retrace up for a corrective later on .

5930 may hold on closing basis and bounce to be seen in expiry week with volatile sessions.

Anonymous@V said...

Thanks RV...looks like 5850 will be tested as seen by sharp downmove and receding FII flows and fear of fed decreasing to be range bound for seasonally weak months of may and june....cheers

Need some help on Ranbaxy chart from you....if possible please do me a is urgent as I seem to be stuck up on the wrong side...

AAR VEE said...


Thanks for your comment.

Ranbaxy has been taken over by controversies and poor fundamentals.(fine of $500m by USFDA etc)
Technicals wont help much in short term.

alpesh kanpariya said...

Dear Rajivsir,
You r mentionon sunday ew probabilities abv, now we r in bullish count or with sideways ? If we r in sideways ,so what tgt of nifty ? In long term 6340 is significant resis. So we sell here in nifty or stay with trande ?
Plz guide,

AAR VEE said...

@ alpesh kanpariya ,

The Weekend analysis signaled the higher probability EW trade as that of a bounce up to the targets mentioned.

6170 is yet to be done (till then sideways B) and it was mentioned that only on close above this the higher targets as in post may be achieved.(Then probability of C)

The targets above 6170 as in post are 6270,6350.

Watch the weekly chart in above post, the top TL has not been tested by E ,which may give these targets.