Sunday, June 16, 2013

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

Let's check out the different Time frames and Probabilities for Trading -

1. Monthly :

2. Weekly :

3. Daily :

4. Fibonacci & Moving Average :

5. Probable EW Count :

Trend is Down but may be waning for Short term, the direction for which may be decided by the RBI Policy & Fed. announcements early this week. Good Support in 5700-5640 zone. Below 5640 close can be further bearish. 200dma is the important pivot for both sides on closing basis .


Unknown said...

Good morning and thank you for the update.

Parminder said...

Thanks Rajiv sir,
for ur insight wave counts and wonderful post
Warm regards

Nilesh Patil said...

Thanks RV sir

shriram said...


What is ur pref. wave-count up from 4531 pls ?

Are you seeing this upmove as a 5-3-5-5 LD or a corrective CT, or a developing new IM Degree Impulse UP ??

AAR VEE said...

@Rajapvt ,Parminder, Nilesh ,

Thanks for your comments .

@Shriram ,
Pl. Refer couple of posts back -

shriram said...

Thank u RV,

so, if the pref count is a Downward Corrective / Ascending CT

where should the "e" leg stop for this alt ?

How bout seeing 6357-2253-6339

and Y in play as a flat as 6339-4531-6230-XXXX as a 3wave ?

AAR VEE said...

@Shriram ,

There may be many other valid EW probabilities in every time frame.
One sticks to his preferred till invalids in that tf which u r trading.
I have been following this long term counts since 2010 top and have been updating about the triangle probability since 6357,though more of an academic exercise than trading one.
Break of TL down may give new probabilities.

shriram said...

yes, i just wanted to hear how u filter in / phase out counts/lables.

Tks for the clarity


AAR VEE said...

@Shriram ,

How to filter in/phase out counts :
Some steps to help -

1. Have a probable count aligned in trading TF with the Higher TF,like if you r trading Hourly TF ,then have have counts in it aligned with Daily TF. Naturally the counts in lower tf will be subwaves of higher tf.

2.Trendlines and channels to help in assessing the move.
Imp is the visual structure of wave formation along with time taken with reference to other waves.
Basic indicators as macd,stoch movement to be aligned with counts.

3.Simple targets as per wave counts/subwave moves to be part booked and fibonacci retraces/extensions for part booking / reentering.

4.Eye for Pattern formation in a corrective move ,may be classical or geometric .

5.Avoid wave trading in lower tf as 5/10/15 min ,intraday , as consumes lot of mental capital and blurs larger picture . Only to be used for entry and exit fine tuning .

6. EW enthusiats should patiently wait for pattern confirmation ipo predicting the move . Counts of 5 & 3's may help in assessing a likely pattern and trade should be in reaction to that rather than based on prediction.

7. Low risk areas should be found for trading ,like in above chart the top near 5860 was near invalidation of 4th at 5885 for tgt of previous low for wave 5.Hedging may be done for a news based event move.So probability of trade with low risk with help of EW levels.

8.Sensing a 5 wave move in higher tf, the lower tf to be used for re-entry or simple trailing stoploss.

9. Flexibility is primary requisite for EW trading . One gets new counts,invalidations,pattern formation changed, move extensions/curtailment etc. regularly . Mindset to be tuned to take benefit of move by reacting to these rather than stuck with ideal EW trade scenario.

10.Its a game of finding probable trades , getting targets, part booking , re- entry levels, reversal and confirmation levels to trade . The subjective nature of the theory should be curtailed with less prediction ,more reaction . low risk zones , right position size etc.So along with Method ,Mindset& Money management are equally important.

paddy said...

Its a Treat to watch your posts RV!! Its a great learning here.. Thanks a Ton!!

shriram said...

Yes RV,

very well put indeed :-)

The 2252-4531 TL is coming today @ 5615 NS, and we made a low of 5618

Time to Sell 3% OTM PEs , with 1/2 SL for June ??

shriram said...


As per the ABCDE lable, "E" should form here is it not near 5600 NS ?

How much Under-shoot is accepted for "e" in an Ascending CT.

@ wot NS level will the lable invalidated & one need to look for other alts. ?


AAR VEE said...


I dont recommend /endrose any options trading .

Ya as in monthly chart ascending triangle the E should form near it .
Break of TL on monthly closing basis will call for alternate counts specially if held below it further .
Counts in lower tf may give some earlier hint.

shriram said...

tks RV,

I regularly write 5% Next mnth OTM options esp near higher Degree Support /RES zones (or suspected Trend Exhaustion signals) , with 1/2 premium as SL

infact that is bred & butter. And the reason to re-confirm the written PEs.

Tks for ur fdbk