Saturday, January 21, 2012

Elliott Wave Update for Nifty


The cross of 5025 and close above it has brought me back to the planning table . The EW perspective of the Basic Counts , that of a Third zigzag in progress and we are in the wave B of that , remains as it is . Below are some Charts , Observations and Conclusions for the Short Term EW update-

The wave B now is forming an Expanded Flat , where the 'b-B' wave is an irregular that goes below that of A and 'c-B' will terminate beyond the start of 'a-B'.

1. The Expanded Flat in a simple line diagram looks like this-




2. Wave B as shown in the Daily chart below, will now end beyond 5099.



3. Probable Target for the upmove in the short term may be as below .



4. The c-B has started from the low of 4532 and may be moving in 5 waves as below.



Conclusions :

1. The broader conclusions remain the same as in last Post , please refer to them -
Click Here

2. The subwaves count for c-B have changed along with Pattern for wave B from the last post . Now we Target above 5200 in the Short Term .

As per EWI - In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A.

The important word to mark in the above sentence is ' substantially' . We can now expect and keep open the probability of a close above 200dma and may be the  break of the downtrendline since 6338 , Nov.10, to make everyone bullish. ( thats the work of a wave B - the 'sucker wave', to make one a believer and then suck , here by making one 'buy on dips' ).

3. The  fall after c-B whenver ends ( not far away ) will be more vicious and swift now and will Target  a new low below the 4530 level. 

26 comments:

Rajib said...

Right AAR VEE; I too think it's more of a stubborn sucker wave.

Regards,
Rajib

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Very nice presentation again with open mind, keep it up.

Rgrds,

Kumar

AAR VEE said...

Hi Rajib ,
Thanks for sharing ur views. I am amazed how your P&F method works fine in all TF's,may be its ur application of it that does wonders. Keep doing the good work.

AAR VEE said...

@ Kumarji ,

Thanks for the comment and encouraging words.

Regards

piyush sharda said...

very clear and precise rv. looking at ur hour labelling i am always amazed how clearly and precisely u label.

Anonymous said...

Thumbs up Aarvee :)

One doubt though can the final ABC be a 5-3-5? The reason I'm asking this is because I was thinking can we treat 5400-4530 as A and we are currently in B, C to follow as a 5. Please humor my limited EW knowledge. Thanks in advance.


Best regards,
Badri

AAR VEE said...

@ PS,

Thanks for leaving an appreciating view of the post.

AAR VEE said...

@Badri ,

Thanks for the comment.

What I can get from ur query is about the A-B-C pattern since 5400. As per the basic counts its likely to end up as 5-3-5 zigzag (the third one in larger TF since 6338).I am treating A as 5400-4640 in 5 waves and then the B in 3 waves described above as a-B,b-B and now in c-B.The B wave is trading as 3-3-5 expanded flat. After this the likely C may travel in 5 waves down.

Regards

Anonymous said...

Just trying to learn from a EW fluent person - are you saying if I counted my way that is right too? And your experience tells you to count the way you have marked above? And the only difference between the 2 ways going to be the A=C targets depending on where we count as end point? Thanks in advance.

Best regards,
Badri

AAR VEE said...

@Badri ,

I didnt comment on your count but the basic pattern that I have been folowing since 5400.

EW being subjective has many valid counts and likewise targets. You have to validate your own counts by subwave counting etc.

piyush sharda said...

rv,

i wud request u to make a educative post for ur readers on how do u label. how do u give preferred /alternate view what factors u consider important? at times more than 2 counts are available. how do u select 2 (preferred and alternate)of course when time permits.

AAR VEE said...

PS,

As a trader following EW ,u must be clear that there are no fixed rules for labelling other than the 'Hard Rules' .
EW is quite subjective with many valid counts moving simultaneously .
I try to judge the hourly counts if valid by 5 min count and that hrly count fits in larger TF of daily.
Help of indicators and data for smart money movement is also accounted,which again is subjective.
At times the subwave counts become difficult to label ,(as now in the extended move). EW is used only for likely trend and targets if the counts turn valid and as stoploss if invalid.
Opposite views for preferred and alternate count would keep one objective and trade the market as probability only.

AAR VEE said...

vishal said...
dear aarvee ,
so no more free updates?

January 27, 2012 7:45 AM

AAR VEE said...
Hi Vishal ,

The advisory services are on from last 6 months. Updates are provided here on change of insight from last post. There are being provided regularly.

January 27, 2012 10:01 AM

piyush sharda said...

thanx rv,
saved ur msg

bizagra said...

aarvee sir plz update yr counts...or no change in view??
Thanks

vishal said...

hello

please can you tell us , where does your counts stands. Any change with your views or maintaining the same.

thanks

AAR VEE said...

@bizagra,Vishal -

Why should there be any chane in the stand ? The count continues well infact it managed exactly what was concluded. We may now be in B-4 ,with 4 going for a Flat
( expanded flat if crosses 5217).
Update on any change in view(to Short term Bullish ,which will be above 5400 only ) or probable start of C down will be done when unfolds.

bizagra said...

Thnks aarvee.

vishal said...

hello

please we say that today's move is end of c B . whats your say .

manojag said...

RV,
Great analysis.'B' may be over today.'C' could be very bearish if this plays out.
cheers
manoj

Free Mcx Tips said...

Hey are you maintain the same count or status or do you have any change in it

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Manoj ji,

There is a probability that if we move above today's high of 5290,then the monday's move was a minor 4th and we still are in major wave 3 since 4532. the move from monday's low ,5077, may then be wave 5-3 likely to end near 5350apprx. From there the major wave4 may unfold.
If we move below 5225 tmrw ,the C-4count continues.

In larger count the B still has wave4 th and 5th to finish as of now.

Regards

Govind Bhagwat said...

Your post is great insight....Aar Vee Sirji...thanks a ton...

...Irregular flat it appears to be as said by you...understand that the counts are subjective & the current upmove may extend further...though, one question, as follows, Sirji for just academic interest...

In the current scenario...is following count valid one for corrective 3-3-5 ?

A : 4639 to 5100 = 461
B : 5100 to 4588 = 512 (111% of A)
C : 4588 to 5335 = 747 (162% of A)

...I guess the problem being the path taken by B3 - (B1 5100 - 4728, B2 4728 - 4840, B3 4840 - 4588) ???...sorry for the second question...

Warm regards,
Govind

bizagra said...

Aarvee sir plz update yr counts as we are nearing 5400 now...Thanks

AAR VEE said...

Hi Govind ,

The answer lies in your comment about subjectivity of EW counts.
I try to present my view on the blog and find it hard to validate/invalidate others count.

Regards

Kristen said...

very clear and precise rv. looking at ur hour labelling i am always amazed how clearly and precisely u label.

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