Sunday, February 5, 2012

Technical Analysis for Nifty


Last Post concluded a probable breach of 200dma and the Channel break . Now what lies further in Short Term is analyzed in the charts below -


1. Monthly ,Weekly and Daily Charts ( Indicators ,Trendlines, Moving Averages ) :







2. Elliott Wave Analysis :



3. Fibonacci Extension Targets :



4. Liquidity : ( FII Data and Rupee Movement ) :




5. Option Data :



6. Wolfe Wave Pattern :



7. Volume Profile ( 10d ) :




Conclusions :

1. Trend is firmly UP in all Time Frames . No use going against the Trend .

2. A Near Term Top may come this week in 5385-5450 range apprx. ( Fibo. and EW Channel top )

3. Correction may be limited to 5200-5150 level only in the near term. ( Option data ,200dma ,Channel Top retrace in weekly ,daily )

4. Higher Targets may unfold later after correction. ( Wolfe Wave, EW wave 5).

5. Reversal in Short  Term only below 5050 as of now (10d profile) .

6. The Markets may show bullishness now upto the runup to Byelection results or the Budget .  ( Its not based on any Time analysis) .

Make the 'Trend' your Friend and Enjoy Trading !!!

30 comments:

jonak said...

Hi Aarve...there was open interest reduction means ...call writers are not sure of protecting 5400 right ..

bizagra said...

Dear Aarvee..now abc scenario invalidated??? thx

piyush sharda said...

rv,
how are u treating now since nov 10 6338 now. last u were putting xx at 5400 then zizzag a 5400-4639,
b (irregular going on) what r the changes in that??

AAR VEE said...

Hi Jonak ,

Ya, meant the same,writers getting itchy and showing the way may be.

AAR VEE said...

@ Bizagra , PS ,

Not clear about the larger TF counts as of now .Many probabilities, 1st wave Up , a A of the 'd' of the triangle in 4th since 2008,another X wave ,or even the expanded flat still on etc .
It will give a healthy retrace after completion of the five waves probably min. upto 4640 level ,the first gap fill. lets just wait for completion of a 5wave up and its corrective scenario to decide further.

piyush sharda said...

thanx rv.
what i feel out of all u mentioned
chances of expanded flat is very remote as b retraces max 80% in zigzag. looks more like 6338-4531
retrace going.

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Very nice presentation again, showing every aspect of current scenario very well.

Rgrds,

Kumar

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Kumarji ,

Regards

ubs said...

hi aar vee,

What about your views on SUCKER WAVE? does it stands invalidated?

regards,

Rajib said...

Strange move, may be a sub-wave in EW, but does W-1 do any subwave division? I know only 3rd & 5th!

Your wolf-wave target (5570-85) is matching with 2 of my targets coming from Fib extention and channel top. Being a trader, this much of trend becomes jittery, wish 5400 is protected before further move! :)

Regards,
Rajib

AAR VEE said...

@ ubs ,

The answer lies in a comment above . the larger TF count of the SUCKER WAVE is neither invalidated nor confirmed .

AAR VEE said...

Hi Rajib ,

The wave 1 will also subdivide in 5waves and the 3rd subwave of it can extend also ,why not ?

The WW target will keep on extending with time ,BNF has crossed that target also.If the correction in a 4th wave now remains confined above 5200 (most likely ) then higher targets also in pipeline.

Ya 50% of total fall since Nov.2010covered in one month !!! strange as u say .

Fate of 5400 may be decided tomorrow. Waiting for it.

Govind Bhagwat said...

Gr8 presentation...Aar Vee Sir...

Just my thoughts..not that I'm bearish...but would like to hedge...keeping in view alternate count of the irregular expanded flat from A:4639 - 5100 = 461, B: 5100 - 4531 = 569 (123% of A), C : 4531 - 5390 = 859...the alternate count is based on Wayne Gorman's prescription of Fibo ratios for irregular flat..the three alternatives - 0.618 of A or 1.618 of A or 0.618 from the end of A...all three conditions are met including even the last one today (5100 + 285 i.e. 61.8% of A - 461)..

..so keeping the fingers crossed & positions hedged for both bullish & bearish counts...

..yes another highlight...today's top 5390 is just short by 15 points of completing 61.8% of retracement of total fall from 5944 to 4531...let us see whether we do this tomorrow...

San said...

Nice analysis AAR VEE.

Suresh Gundappa said...

Someone left a comment with your link on my blog appreciating your work, I have to agree with the person that you are indeed doing a great job and more importantly very neat work in Technical analysis. it's one thing that TA gets often analysis wrong because market is bigger than TA. But it is important we do proper analysis. I am sure your site will have many more genuine followers and fans in days to come. Keep up the great work and don't stop irrespective of criticism.
Well done.
http://Sureshgundappa.blogspot.com

AAR VEE said...

@ Govind Bhagwat ,

Thanks for your comment and sharing the EW insight .

AAR VEE said...

@San ,

Thanks

AAR VEE said...

@ Suresh G.,

Thanks for ur comment. By analysis we only try to rationalize a random market by various methods.
Doing that we get some valid probabilities to trade and for any analysis equally important is to know its point of invalidation . Being right or wrong in analysis will happen but how u trade it so as to lose less when wrong and gain more when right is important.

I find you running a good blog and my best wishes for the same.

Anonymous said...

hi aar vee,

I left the your link on Suresh gundappa's blog. i see your communication with each other which made me to share these points with you..
1. i do agree with you that TA will rationalize random stuff to help to come up with close probabilities.
2. please let us know more about invalidation points with winning & losing trade management techniques.

this i asked on suresh gundappas blog but NO Response since long!!!

Shaggy Boo

AAR VEE said...

@Shaggy Boo,

The point of invalidation is the failure point of the method u r employing to take the trade. With EW it becomes easy to point to a level. Simliar with pattern trading ,trendline trading, range breakouts, SAR etc. U put ur s/l where the TA on which u took the trade goes wrong.
For details u have to study the various methods ,their execution and failures.

Anonymous said...

Hi Aarvee,

Can wave C be 350% of wave A? (or 200%+ if expanded flat) The reason I'm asking - is there any merit in maintaining the alternate count as ABC instead of 123. The move from 4530 seems like has no chance of being an ABC. What are your thoughts?

Cheers,
Badri

AAR VEE said...

@Badri,

This move from 4531 was considered as wave c-B (in 5 waves) for expanded flat which doesnt looks like one now.
Keeping various options open on long term charts.
It will give good trade down after completion of wave 5 which may target 50-62% retrace at least when top is in place.
Further clarity of longterm counts only on reaction/completion of retrace.

ubs said...

hi arvee,

Now that a top seems to be in place at around 5630, where do you feel the nifty is headed? Which would become the key level on nifty to watch out for wrt EW counts?

Warm Regards,

AAR VEE said...

@ ubs ,

The short term top apprx. at 5630 may be the end of wave 3 since 4530level. Now we may be heading to 5380 (23.6%) and below (5230 at 38.2% )in a wave 4. Option data indicates as of now that 5300 level may hold in this correction of wave 4 . Also as per alternation with wave 2 (which was deep),the wave 4 may be shallow.

Regards

bizagra said...

Aarvee sir, plz give update on yr counts.Any possibility of ABC ended @5630 now...i m asking as everyone is bullish now and waiting for buy on dips..???thx

AAR VEE said...

Hi bizagra ,

Pl. check the above comment for short term counts.

There are many probabilities at work in long term count so just going by these 5 waves up followed by a-b-c down to retrace at least 50-62% of the total upmove later after completion of 5 waves up.

A-B-C as expanded flat was ruled out on invalidating of C=1.62A and travel of C to .61A above end of A which are normal targets for expanded flats.

Trade in short to medium term is quite clear for 5waves up and then 3 waves down positionally.

bizagra said...

okk Thanks aarvee..

Alpesh , Dk said...

DEAR "RV"
Last 2 day nifty very volatile move ,
so where we r heading in this wave counte.we guess that we r in last C-4 wave & todays high made " B " WAVE ?
Plz guide me
regards,
Alpesh

AAR VEE said...

Hi Alpesh ,

Not counting waves on larger TF now. It may be a wave 4 but looks to me more like wave A of a larger correction to unfold ( wave 5 completed at 5630 in that case). Below 5225(38% retrace) is 5165
(200dma)and then we go to apprx.5100(50% retrace) where we also complete c=a ,where a=5630-5268,b=5268-5458 and c=5458-5100.

Valenzuelaquix said...

@Shaggy Boo, The point of invalidation is the failure point of the method u r employing to take the trade. With EW it becomes easy to point to a level. Simliar with pattern trading ,trendline trading, range breakouts, SAR etc. U put ur s/l where the TA on which u took the trade goes wrong. For details u have to study the various methods ,their execution and failures.

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