Sunday, January 15, 2012

Technical Analysis for Nifty


The Markets have moved up in last two weeks since the start of 2012. There are Bullish signals all over. Some questions like - Have we bottomed out? Is this rally sustainable ? How far can we move ahead? What's the signal of end of this upmove? etc, may be answered by combination of Technical Methods. Below are some self explanatory charts with observations -

1. Indicators :





2. Pattern :



3. Moving Averages :



4. Fibonacci Levels :



5. Options Data :



6. FII Data :



7. Elliott Wave Analysis :





Conclusions :

1. All the charts above have a Bullish undertone except EW which is suggesting either a Top made or one nearby .

This Rally is Non Trending ,Corrective in nature ,as the Larger Trend remains Down.

2. We may go at best to 4950-5025 levels, if not already topped out near 4900 in the last session . Close below 4700 may bring a new Low now.

3. Caution against enthusiasm for holding Longs , Buying on Dips or getting into New Investment mode . Traders should use the Rally to either get out of longs and Investors should wait on sidelines for the signals for any Bullish turnaround to appear. Few such signals for those interested in new Investments have been given in previous Posts.

4. 4780 is the key level to watch . Breach of this level in Trading may signal the end of this Upmove and then the Markets will become 'Sell on Rise' Positionally. 

Have a Profitable Trading Ahead !!!



 

15 comments:

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Thanx for releasing new movie on PONGAL. Its very well picturised, good direction & all the levels are given with sound reasoning & far fetched vision.

Happy Pongal & Makar Sankranti to you, your family & all your followers too:)

Rgrds,

Kumar

piyush sharda said...

nice one rv...
triange wud be real foresight if it plays out..

piyush sharda said...

rv just noted, 3rd smaller than 1. so if 5th of c pending max 168 points 4804+168=4972

mridul said...

even the lagging macd in weekly chart giving buy and with positive divergrnce and daily overstretched so few days can be range bound and few week may be good up. so the conclusion is PREBUDGET RALLY AFTER A MINOR FALL. thanks for your efforts dear RV

mridul said...

nice observation and may be useful.thanks ps.

shriram said...

Dear RV,

I have a small reservation on 1 of ur obsv.. u say in the fibbo chart, tat we had a strong close on Friday...

But the EOD candle was a Spinning Top, tats Indecisive!

Wot made u say so?

rgds
SMO

shriram said...

And one pt of appreciation !

The ABC as ZZ 4532-4801-4588-4899 makes a lot of sense , esp if one can construct a ||el wave cahnnel thru 4532-4588 & 4801-4899 !

Nice, seems we have finished one set of ABC & a 5fifer impulse or a X shall follow DOWN starting tomo :-)

Cheers
SMO

AAR VEE said...

@Kumarji-

Thanks for the appreciation and Wishing You and All friends Happy Sankranti and Pongal.

Regards

AAR VEE said...

@ PS,

Triangle is something that I have been eyeing since last few weeks due to low volumes and as said the internal structure,the subwaves behaving in 3-3-3 pattern.

Ya as per this count there is a difference of 2 points apprx. by which 3rd is shorter. Though broadly the count looks right , u know how the subwave counting may be tricky.

AAR VEE said...

@ Mridul ,

Thanks for leaving the comment .Budget is still far away and may be delayd due to elections. Range bound trading is going on from apprx. dec end on low volumes ,may be now the range expands with volumes and we may have some trending move.

If the big C is coming down in near term, the Indicators in Weekly may be a trap for bulls and people buying on dips.

AAR VEE said...

@ Shriram ,

Thanks for ur comments.

Fibo chart is what its meant for ,seeing the fibo levels and the close is near 61.8% giving a new high in last session,hence the observation that close is strong as per the chart.

Candlesticks formation has no relation with fibonacci chart and is a separate study which I have not much idea and rarely use them in my observations.

AAR VEE said...

@ PS,

Sorry ,the above comment for u had some calculations for the subwave 3v/s subwave 1 of a different count not given in the chart.

Yes ur observation is correct about the red count that wave 5 should come to end with length shorter than 3 going by this count ,but for the levels we will have to wait for the 4th to be over.

shriram said...

tks for clarifying RV

rgds

AAR VEE said...

@ PS,

Please check the red counts again-

If wave 5th is pending, than as per it-

wave 1= 4588-4781 =193 pts
wave 3=4687-4899= 212 points,

so here wave 3 is larger than wave 1 ,hence wave 5 to end less than wave 3 is negated.

My last comment to you is invalid as the counts had been taken as black one (but wave 5 has already ended there) and insight was for red one (where wave 5 is pending). Sorry for the confusion.

piyush sharda said...

sorry dear rv for having given so much stress to u :-)

dont use g mail regularly so just visited ur blog to see ur reply .

ur latest count of wave 3 ending at 4899 seems to be playing out well

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