UPDATE 13-10-13
As in the last comment, a close above 5970 and not closing below 5885 had bullish bias and break on upside.
1. The moves now will be based on News flow from USA on debt ceiling and shutdown.Volatility is likely to increase with some roller coaster move.
2. If its a 5 wave move from 5701, it has legs to go above 6142 as well as 6229 further on positive news.
3.If its a 3 wave move from 5701 then its in c of it from 5823, making an ending diagonal,rising wedge and is in its last leg. It may come down positionally after breaking the uptrendline back to near 5900 levels and further below to 5700 in a Flat corrective.
4. In larger TF its one a-b-c from 6229-5119(wave A) and likely another a-b-c on from 5119 (wave B).
From 5701 it can be c up or in b of b as in two probabilities above (pts 2 &3) in short term.
5. Price wise close below 6000 may signal a short term top in place and likely start of down trend.
Else we may be in for higher targets of 6150 (cross 6142 in iii-c)),6230 (cross 6229 in v-c) and further to 6335 (c=.62a, where a=5119-6142).
overall this a-b-c from 5119 may be a sucker B wave ( wave A in a-b-c from 6229-5119) giving a false impression of a long term bullish breakout crossing vital price levels and historic pivots only to deceive and go down in a bearish C wave down.
11 comments:
Looking at rupee trend....US shutdown being technical in nature....fii being long....6147....6230....6338....all earlier swing highs or all time highs to be taken out....a bit of positive newsflow can be a blast from the past....IT sector doing well to support real estate.....which is good for overall economy....nifty has been range bound for last 5years....post 2008......remember the last election result.....15% circuit for nifty....removal of uncertainty to any extent will be the final straw on the bear"s back.....its time to go for the bear hunt....
Rupee on appreciating trend....fii continue to be buyers....debt issue settled in US....post results banks and IT correcting....idfc consolidating between 92.50 and 97.50 with ABC wave correction....watch for breakout above 97-99 ....target....108 to 112....
lot of consolidation taken place on oct nifty futures around 6130....for the last 3 - 4 days....watch it for breakout
UPDATE 17-10-13
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Probable short term top in place at 6156 with a small probability of it's intra-day retest tmrw.
Only if price closes above 6120 on hrly basis it can try and test the high of 6156.
If the price does not cross 6120 and closes below 6020 on hrly basis then short term top may be in place at 6156.
Only on eod closing basis above 6150 will the uptrend resume for new highs. We may be now going down in this series.
thanks for update....cheers....i think i need to watch out...will be on guard....
CAD to be closer to 50 billion rather then 70...hugely positive for rupee...range 59 to 60....good for fii....double profit for them....god for india....will help keep inflation in check...oil price in technical downtrend....nuclear talks with iran positive for oil going down...
sorry READ CAD AT 60 NOT 50
moody's says indian eco improving ......too late....for them.....prices are already reflecting
today looks like big ticket shorts are covering up....
Looks like the sucker B created bullish impact on all. Looking forward to see the update on projections now.
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