Sunday, August 11, 2013

Technical Analysis for Nifty

The Down Trend continues, firming up in Higher Time Frames. Chart updates and Observations as of now -





The Down Trend is quite strong and one can see it has spread from lower time frame to higher ones in last couple of weeks.

Break of 5500 will be signalling a continuation of the Down Trend to target 5450-5420-5350 in near term.

Short term bounce to unfold only on close above 5600 in next 2-3 sessions that can target apprx 5750-5800 if sustains.

Remember that in such a Down Trend surprise will be on downside and short term supports or a bounce may not hold strongly.

Stay with the Trend and enjoy till it lasts with proper risk management.


varun kumar said...

@ Good Morning sir,

Thanks for the guiding and support for stay with the trend.

shriram said...


Super post V,

get the sense ur gunning for 4400 NS :-p

Anuj said...

Dear Aar-vee...plz update..thx

AAR VEE said...

@Varun ,shriram & Anuj -

Predict & Perish , Follow & Flourish.

Update as on 15-08-13

Hourly and daily TF's have turned on their heels in last 3 sessions.

Some of the cautions mentioned in the charts have to be kept in mind.

Monthly chart will matter only at end of the month.Prices have moved again inside the broken Trendline.

Weekly Trendline as shown is being tested and close on/near it.

Daily TL has clearly been whipsawed and close is above it in last couple of sessions.

Hourly channel was broken on upside on Monday itself with eod close above 5600.

Resume of downtrend only on close below 5600. Holding 5670 on closing basis may lead to further upside.

Green shoots visible. Time to be cautious for having any strong bias. Trading light till price confirmation will be prudent.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 18-08-13

The observations and levels in the above post are valid for trading this week also.

The bounce came on close above 5600 to target 5750 buut could not sustain.The down trend in larger tf have been effective and surprise was on downside as is being stressed since start of correction from 6093.

The targets are same as that mentioned in the post for the short term and resistance is at 5600 closing now. bounce above that again if comes.

Each support broken will turn into resistance if the Downtrend continues as now.

Kailash said...

Please update

radhakrishnan said...

I am watching your blog for the past 2 weeks. Just 1 thing i ve to say u r mindblowing... keep up this good work and continue to enlighten us...

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE: 25-08-13

The Targets mentioned in the post above that of 5450-5420-5350 have been achieved.

Downmove extended 100 pts below 5350 but except for one close all closes have been above 5400 last week. This indicates short covering/buying at lower levels after a swift downmove.

As of now the Short term trend is Neutral to Bullish, only a close below 5300 will be signalling the restart of downtrend.
Medium term is Bearish till closes above 5755 apprx.

The expiry week may broadly trade in the 5550-5350 range.

AAR VEE said...


Breaks the range 5550-5350 and closes below 5300. Larger TF downtrend asserts itself and the mantra of the series- surprises will be on downside continues.

Now 5350 becomes the resistance on closing basis and targets down may be 5250,5180,5130,5080.