Sunday, June 30, 2013

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

Nifty unable to close below 5570 gave a quick upmove from the expiry day of last series . We check the probabilities ahead-

07/07/13: The week ended range bound between 5750-5900 in the support & resistance zone mentioned. Updated one EW probability in the post. 

14/07/13: The Triangle pattern developing since last week broke on upside. Updated chart added.

21/07/13: Holding 5935 on closing basis it went up again to make a new high as in the update last week. Now watch for 5975. Chart updated in the post with observations-





A probable range bound week's trading in the broader range of 5700-5900 . Support in the 5750-80 zone initially and Resistance in the 5900-50 zone . Break and close below 5725 may resume the down trend and close above 5950 will be further bullish .

Updated on 07-07-13 :

Updated on 14-07-13:

Updated on 21-07-13 :


Nilesh Patil said...

Good Morning sir,
Thanks for You view

Piyush Sharda said...

hi rv,
bearish count of five wave done at 5566??

AAR VEE said...

Tx Nilesh ,

Hi PS ,check hrly chart , a probability that 3rd done at 5566 and subwaves of 4th on ,invalidation at 5937.

Piyush Sharda said...

yes rv 6133 5683 have two waves in hour

shriram said...

form of 6229-5566 & S.MACD on Day smells of DZZ scent... ???

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE : 02-07-13

The Sensex has invalidated the wave 4 count yesterday by crossing the low of 1 as in red count ,so that count may not hold good here also.

Support in 5825-40 zone and resistance in 5925-40 zone as of now for positional trading.

May be in wave 4 from the low of 5566 for short term counts.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE: 03-07-13

The support zone taken out in gap down and closed below 200dma again .

Tested the last gap up top today. If holds the low of today then we may first fill today's gap down else we are going down to 5700 level for earlier gap fill.

Looks more like a B wave trading than a 4th.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 09-07-13

The 200dma has been whipsawed daily since start of July series.

20dma is supporting as of now and low of 5760 is crucial for the Triangle Pattern developing since the high of 5905 as suggested by contracting range and whipsaws.

The B wave may be trading in the Triangle and it may be in its d subwave.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 14-07-13

The triangle mentioned in above update broke on upside as expected.

Close has been above 50dma and 61.8% retrace ,now imp levels to watch.

Trading levels updated in the chart added to the post today.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 17-07-13

Since last two sessions,its closing below the 5975,the 61.8%retrace level, but not below 5935 level as mentioned in the weekend updated chart added in the post above.

Holding this level/2d low, probability of a new high,target zone of 6075-95 as mentioned in chart is still there as the subwave structure may not confirm a top being made at 6038 and has a bullish probability open.

Break of 2d low ,5910, will open up the further bearish probability down to 5850 and below.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 21-07-13

As updated in above comment a new high came.

Now watch for the supporting Trendline to further signal the move. Holding the crucial 5975 level it may give some bounces this week.

Even another high is probable in 6075-95 zone, but the corrective retrace is now exhausting so caution reqd.

Only a close above 6100 and specifically above 6135 may call for review of this probability , else sometime in this week we may resume the medium term down trend on from 6229 level.