As analyzed and observed in last week's post and comments , the downtrend continued . Lets check out the technical charts for trading this week.
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Technical bounce is expected this week from oversold zone with a probability of a last leg down left , so trading above 5900 we may get to apprx. 5960,5990 and below last session low of 5854 we may target apprx. 5830 ,5795.
14 comments:
Thanks Aarvee ji for your weekly outlook. :-)
Thank you RV for the analysis.
Short and Sweet
Thanks Tejpreetji ,Rajapvt ,Nilesh.
EOD 19-02-12
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-Hrly TF +ve divergence came about after an a-b-c retrace from 5911, the previous high upto todays low of 5883.Some indicators giving +ve divergence in daily TF also.
-Now immediate resistance may come at 5960-80 zone which has a confluence of dmas,fibo retrace and ew targets.The support is at 5920-35 zone.
- we have to watch for reaction at the resistance zone to assess further move as it will complete the EW corrective irregular flat pattern of a wave B there as in chart above.
-Now downward bias in short term to re assert only below 5900 close.
Resistance perfectly done. Now waiting for a support.
Plz update after sharp fall in nifty.
Hi Aarvee,
I want to understand whether the irregular B has already played out at 5971 or there is a possibilty of up move still left ?
In the retrace [B] wave, where A wave was from 5880-5969, as you have mentioned.
Can Nifty be still in the irregular B dividing in to a-B 5869-5854, b-B 5854-5971, now c-B ( running or completed ) at 5844,
the C- [B] to follow up.
please guide, thankyou
@Chetas -
Apart from impulse down again from 5970(as majority is considering) ,The Probability of being still in a corrective exists because the last move up from 5854 to 5970 looks a distinct 3 wave move and not a 5 wave one which usually ends a corrective subwave.
There may be two probable counts in a corrective B still being traded.
1. As U suggest, we are still in c-B and a upmove in C-B remains which again goes back to test 5970 apprx.
2. We did not end the A at 5880 but later at 5854 . 5880 was end of 3rd ,the A marked at 5869 may be 4th and 5854 may be the 5th to end the A down from 6112. Since 5854 we started a corrective upwards instead of irregular B ending there.
3. 6000 looks sealed for the series as of now looking at Option O.I. though move above 5900 cannot be ruled out .
4.As in the post above 5795-5830 remains the short term support.
thanks RV
The trading insight this week till Budget remain as in the last comment above ,
1.5800-6000 may be the broader trading range.
2. 5900 is immediate resistance,(which may be whipsawed) and 5795-5830 is a support zone.
3.Only on close above 5970 will any short term strength may be seen.Close below 5795 may be further bearish.
4. Till Budget one may trade light as volumes may be low and trading choppy.
Helpful information! Looking forward for more.
Hi dear RV,
Plz update chart with EW
Time to be crucail
Regards,
Alpesh
what next aarvee, please give update
Shweta Seth , alpesh kanpariya, anonymous@V
Thanks for following the blog ,updated post .
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