We have completed half year trading of 2012 . Lets check out Nifty in different time frames along with probable Elliott wave counts , Indicators , Patterns ,Trendlines and associated data for what lies ahead .
I was to post this at weekend (but couldn't do so due to internet services disruption) so the charts have captured the move till last week only .
1. The probable EW count that I have been following since high of Nov. 2010 is as in chart below . It should be noted that the Channel move since the correction set in from 6338 has been broken upwards , tested on multi week basis and prices are sustaining comfortably above it .
2. The Fibonacci chart below shows the retraces of the X waves in this corrective till now. It normally retraces 61.8% -76%. We may now be doing an X wave from 4770 ( or alternately a B wave ).
3. The Stoch Indicator behaviour since Nov 2010 on Weekly basis is as below . We are now in overbought zone and near the red trendline marked that may offer resistance.
4. The Daily chart below has combination of RSI , Channels & Trendlines . The Red Trendline from 6338-5630 may act as a Resistance (now near 5400 apprx) . If that is taken out and sustained ,then we may move in the Green Channel bullishly upwards.
The RSI behaviour shows a near Overbought zone trading now. Its time to be cautious as well as have an eye on a bullish trending move in overbought zone above the red trendline.
5. While labelling EW counts from 4770 , I came across an interesting observation that the last few days of trading on hourly TF looks almost similar to that in Daily TF of 2009 . ( Had posted the same observation at Twitter on 19th June also.)
6. As of now I find the upmove since 4770 as a 3 wave structure of A-B-C and hence marked it as a whole for a X (or B) wave . Will relook at its structure if sustains above 5500 for an impulse move. (Had posted the same insight at Twitter on 26th June)
7. The structure of Long Term chart with 50-200dma Death cross again is cautioning against a sustained upmove as of now . It can very well again reverse as it did in 2004 which will be very Bullish .
8. The Market moves on Liquidity which decides the Price and Volumes both . The FII data for 2012 till now is quite bullish . They have poured in large sum of money despite all talks of Global problems and Local fundamental issues . Its at par with 2009 data when the recent years low was made. They seem to bet on further bullishness to come . Check out yearly data since 2008 and you can see how they have deployed their bets.
9. Can this be the alternate Bullish count where the wave 4 since 2008, as taken in Basic EW counts of Long term ( Check Here ) , has ended recently ?
1. We are at a critical juncture for both Long term and Short term trading where both the probabilities, of going lower below 4770 and higher above 5630, exists.
2. In short term the zone of 5300- 5425 looks a probable Resistance as per Fibonacci , probable EW counts and Trendlines . A Reversal may also come from this zone so caution required with an eye for any topping out signals.
3. Sustaining above 5400 and Red Trendline resistance may open up higher targets above 5800 , with a up trending move in overbought zone as in Jan-Feb rally.
4. In case of correction from Resistance zone , keep an eye on lower trendline of Green Channel and Monthly Trendline for Support.