Monday, July 6, 2015

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty





Let's Replug from the previous couple of Posts :

>>> Below is the Daily TF Chart from the March 16th post : 

http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2015/03/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-for.html#more

It observes a Gap area 7936-75 just below the pivot low of 7961 which may be the likely Target of this correction.



One of the conclusions in this Post was -

If it's a wave 4 correction and gives a time and price wise larger correction, then the Positional Targets can be 8370 and 7900 apprx.

The expected Correction continued time wise from March till June and retraced apprx 38% ( as shown in the Fibo chart of the Post ) with low made being 7940.


>>> This is May 31st Post  when some Reversal signals began to appear: 

http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2015/05/elliott-wave-technical-analysis-for.html#more 

Updated in comment section of the post :

Observations :

1. Positive divergence in Weekly indicators.

2. Last whole week traded above 8300 and last 4 close above 200dma apprx.

3. Still 50 and 200dma also 20 and 50dma are bearishly aligned.

4. So multiple timeframe contra indications and Greece news keeping the markets choppy.

5. 200dma can be pivot to trade both sides. Bias long with 8200 on closing basis in short term.

6. Light position size till resolves.

Low made was 8195 in next trading session with bias Long 8200 on closing basis.


Now further :

A Bullish probability is likely ( depends on Greek News also ) . Please check the charts below for details -

1.




2.




3.




4.




Charts suggest Positional Long Bias holding 8400 on Closing basis ( 200dma and Pattern Neckline at 8380 apprx) . The likely Target of this move may be retest of pivot at 8845 and above it with some short term corrections which can be bought on dips.

Neutral Bias Below 8380 upto 8200.

Even in case of a Bearish Greek News, 8200 remains the level to watch on Closing basis  (Hourly T/L support and Pattern validity here). We may get a new low below 7940 only if we break 8200 on Closing, then the likely Target would be in the range of 7500-7700.

6 comments:

saroj maji said...

Do you think wave 4 correction is of W-X-Y-XX-Z type or it'll be of A-B-C type of which A down (9119-7997) is complete and B up (7997- till now) is about to complete or may be completed @8561 and we are progressing with C down move towards 7500 (50% retracement of 5933-9119 3rd up wave). Need your valuable opinion.

AAR VEE said...

@ saroj maji,

There always is such a probability that we further extend the correction.

The conclusions of the post have taken this into account without mentioning the bearish counts in your comment.

Now that 200dma is broken again and closed below 8400 we can keep 200dma as pivot and trade the direction.

Thanks

PANKAJ SHAH said...

it seems today will be a final day of fight between bulls and bears. if we could not cross 8655 and we reverse below yday's low of 8550 we may see sharp down move. your views?

saurabh said...

hi sir

any updates..

PANKAJ SHAH said...

sharp down move has started as expected. bigger fall coming ?

PANKAJ SHAH said...

as expected bigger fall has come.
update yr views

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