Was not able to update a new post last month but observations in the comment section of last post held good to capture the reversal from 5477 bottom above crucial 5550 level then. We have done the 5960 target as mentioned. Now further-
Broken and closed below 5600 level.
Now supports below are at apprx 5525 ,the ew tgt of c=a from 6112. and apprx 5440,the gap fill and fibo 50% level from 4770-6112.
An oversold bounce may materialize if the last low of 5535 is held on closing basis in first half of the week .Resistance will be at 200dma now at 5640.
Only on close above 200dma may change the bias to Up .
The hourly counts in red ,alternate, showing a wave 5-C may be in play if 5525 holds .
1. There is +ve divergence in daily and hrly charts with weekly in oversold.
2.Larger Trend remains down below 200dma .
3. Imp level to watch is 5550 for the short term. Its apprx 50 wma and 34 hr ma. Above it we may see upmove to 200dma.
4. Hrly Closing below last low of 5477 may get apprx 5440 and below which is the gap fill and 50% retrace level of 4770-6112.
5. Sustained upmove only above 200dma closing for atleast 2 sessions.
6. EW counts suggest a completion of W-X-Y move from 6112 and now extending below 5525 to the Monthly trendline since march 2009 onwards.
1. Last week it was indicated of EW count completion ,+ve divergence ,5550 as imp level ,200dma as target and up move above it.
2.Now 200dma and 50 dma remain positional levels to watch for support.
3. Targets of this move as per fibo. retrace are 5870,5960.
4. Pain has shifted to Bears above 5695 in this series and is likely to continue till expiry.
5. Immediate support is near 5770-90 for up move to continue for the above targets.
6. EW count indicates a 5 wave move from 5477 low . We may be in the 3rd/4th wave of it.
Check the Charts of different Time Frame carefully with observations on them.
1. Monthly TF :
2. Weekly TF :
3. Daily TF :
4. Hourly TF:
- We have either made a Short term Top at 6019 or may do so in first half of this week.
- Retrace to 5750-5850 zone may follow in Short term (week or two). The nature and pattern of this correction will dictate the follow up on upside .
- Medium Term (May &June series) looks good with further upside to come, if the important Trendline as mentioned in Weekly Chart holds for support.
- Moving further (After above) ,the Upper and Lower Trendlines as shown in Monthly chart will come into play that will decide the course of action .