Monday, May 6, 2013

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty


Was not able to update a new post last month but observations in the comment section of last post held good to capture the reversal from 5477 bottom above crucial 5550 level then. We have done the 5960 target as mentioned. Now further-


Blogger AAR VEE said...
07-4-13 :
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Broken and closed below 5600 level.

Now supports below are at apprx 5525 ,the ew tgt of c=a from 6112. and apprx 5440,the gap fill and fibo 50% level from 4770-6112.

An oversold bounce may materialize if the last low of 5535 is held on closing basis in first half of the week .Resistance will be at 200dma now at 5640.

Only on close above 200dma may change the bias to Up .

The hourly counts in red ,alternate, showing a wave 5-C may be in play if 5525 holds .

April 7, 2013 at 10:57 PM
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 AAR VEE said...
Blogger14-04-13
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1. There is +ve divergence in daily and hrly charts with weekly in oversold.

2.Larger Trend remains down below 200dma .

3. Imp level to watch is 5550 for the short term. Its apprx 50 wma and 34 hr ma. Above it we may see upmove to 200dma.

4. Hrly Closing below last low of 5477 may get apprx 5440 and below which is the gap fill and 50% retrace level of 4770-6112.

5. Sustained upmove only above 200dma closing for atleast 2 sessions.

6. EW counts suggest a completion of W-X-Y move from 6112 and now extending below 5525 to the Monthly trendline since march 2009 onwards.

April 14, 2013 at 11:34 PM
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Blogger AAR VEE said...
Anonymous@V ,

1. Last week it was indicated of EW count completion ,+ve divergence ,5550 as imp level ,200dma as target and up move above it.

2.Now 200dma and 50 dma remain positional levels to watch for support.

3. Targets of this move as per fibo. retrace are 5870,5960.

4. Pain has shifted to Bears above 5695 in this series and is likely to continue till expiry.

5. Immediate support is near 5770-90 for up move to continue for the above targets.

6. EW count indicates a 5 wave move from 5477 low . We may be in the 3rd/4th wave of it.

April 23, 2013 at 9:10 AM
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Check the Charts of different Time Frame carefully with observations on them.

1. Monthly TF :




2. Weekly TF :





3. Daily TF :




4. Hourly TF:




- We have either made a Short term Top at 6019 or may do so in first half of this week.  

- Retrace to 5750-5850 zone may follow in Short term (week or two). The nature and pattern of this correction will dictate the follow up on upside .

- Medium Term (May &June series) looks good with further upside to come, if the important Trendline as mentioned in Weekly Chart holds for support.

- Moving further (After above) ,the Upper and Lower Trendlines as shown in Monthly chart will come into play that will decide the course of action .

13 comments:

alpesh kanpariya said...

Hi, dear RV,
Superb & nice . Now clear the picture.
Thx
Regards,
Alpesh

rajapvt said...

Thanks for the update.

AAR VEE said...

Have reposted Weekly and Daily chart.

Though had mentioned in the observations on weekly chart that probability that A-B-C from 4530 may be over (D leg in monthly done) but had not marked red count with A at 5477( probable a-E in monthly ) .This count suggests c-E down may be upto monthly lower TL of triangle in short term.

Have added this red count in weekly and daily.

Anonymous@V said...

momentum indicates 6110 will be tested before any retracement....may extend upto 6350...

Cheers@RV and thanks for the update

Tushar Thete said...

Hi Aarvee,

Thanks for the update.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE :
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1. The counts shown in hrly chart with wave 5 at 6019 is now invalidated. Probable counts now look as wave 3 at 6019 followed by a Triangle in wave 4 ending at 5928 and wave 5 since.

2. Wave v-5 may be forming an Ending Diagonal in 5 min chart.

3. The major resistance now comes at the Trendline joining the 6335(nov 10) and 6112 ( recent high) . Its apprx at 6070-80 zone.

4. Negative diversions persist in 5 min and hourly indicators.

5. 6000 level will b the SAR for positional trade ,below which will signal a Top in place for the short term .

divya thakor said...

hi arvee
is that possibilitites still exist on monthly time frame?
that is
4th wave as a triangle of a A,B,C,D,E get comleted at 5477 and wave 4 get over and wave 5th is on?
and if not how it will get confirmed that 4th is still on?

AAR VEE said...

@Divya ,

Such a probability may exist if the D leg of 4th was done at 6112 and E ended at 5477 ,truncated , not touching the lower TL.

My preferred view as in the post is of D on now in monthly ,E leg of this D in Daily , 5th of the a-E-D in Hourly.

Alternately it may be B up of the E if D done at 6112 and A-E done at 5477 in a-b-c. (Red in Daily ).

The confirmation may only be a firm breakout above the 6350 (Jan 2008) -6335(Nov 2010) Trendline ,the top TL of the triangle, that may suggest end of 4th.

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE :
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The closing is strong right at the TL resistance.

Seeing the subwaves and price action , we can't rule out the possibility of 5th in an Ending Diagonal.
Consider the Hourly chart in post above and mark a-5 in place of 5 and subsequently b down at 5928 and c-5 up at top TL today.
Lets see how it works out tmrw.

Trend remains up till breach of 6000 as of now in short term.

divya thakor said...

thanks aar-vee

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV,

Gone through your post, its really very good & well described.

Rgrds,

Kumar

Anonymous@V said...

great RV Thanks and cheers

AAR VEE said...

Thanks all .

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