Sunday, March 31, 2013

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty


The bounce in oversold conditions materialized on the last trading session of the March series after trading in an ending diagonal pattern in the truncated week. Lets check the trading probabilities ahead .



1. Daily Chart :


In Daily time frame there is a higher probability of an Upmove, if keeps above 5600 on closing basis. 

2. Hourly Chart : 


In Hourly time frame the probability of a bounce to resistance levels with a retest of recent low also exists .

3. Option data has the highest build up of Open Interest on both sides at 5600 pe . Also 5700 pe exceeds the 5700 ce as of now . It suggests a Support at 5600 and one developing above  .

Positional bias is Up as of now if 5600 level holds on closing basis . 
The Targets may be apprx 5750-80 and above it to apprx. 5880-5900 . 
The immediate Support is at 200dma and recent low.
Closing below 5600 will invalidate the Upmove probabilities.

20 comments:

rajapvt said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rajapvt said...

Thanks for the update Aarvee. I have checked the blog this time after rally. Waiting for that final bounce upto 5971 level.

rajapvt said...

Aarvee: What could be the 5th down possible level (below 5604 and can it be 5500 or even below)? Is that the level one can go for long? Please share. Thanks in advance.

rajapvt said...

Aarvee ji: Closing below 5600 invalidate upmove pattern means on hourly closing basis or the daily closing basis? Can I know. Thanks in advance.

AAR VEE said...

@rajapvt -

1.5TH shown in red count hrly normally may just end near 5604 or whipsaw it.Extensions also possible.

2.Predicting and trading perceived bottom is not advised. rather wait for confirmation of bottom and then enter above.

3.Seeing the move from 5604 up and following the preferred black counts marked in hrly chart,it can be a wave 1 ended at 5745 today and now in wave 2 if does not violates 5604.

4.One should also check the test of 200dma for price action and can take positions if going to close above it ,else wait.

5.Its on daily closing basis based on 5604 bottom and pe build up at 5600 level.Closing below should be a caution for those already holding longs or entering in expectation of a bottom tmrw.

AAR VEE said...

07-4-13 :
---------
Broken and closed below 5600 level.

Now supports below are at apprx 5525 ,the ew tgt of c=a from 6112. and apprx 5440,the gap fill and fibo 50% level from 4770-6112.

An oversold bounce may materialize if the last low of 5535 is held on closing basis in first half of the week .Resistance will be at 200dma now at 5640.

Only on close above 200dma may change the bias to Up .

The hourly counts in red ,alternate, showing a wave 5-C may be in play if 5525 holds .

Alpesh , Dk said...

Dear RAJIV Sir,
now your w-x-y count is valid or still change from it...? In nifty long term "wave C " is start from 6112 .. buz nifty already close below "200 SMA " & also may be close below "50 week SMA"
so give some cleary on that?
now 5440 is short term buying chance or wait??
regards,
Alpesh

alpesh kanpariya said...

Hi, dear sir,
What do u see of this bounce back, this is corrective wave or implusive wave . So buy on deep or wait close above 200 sma?
Regards,
Alpesh

rajapvt said...

Finally we closed below 5600 on weekly basis. I am curious to know the next projections. Please update whenever you get free time. Thanks in advance.

AAR VEE said...

14-04-13
--------------

1. There is +ve divergence in daily and hrly charts with weekly in oversold.

2.Larger Trend remains down below 200dma .

3. Imp level to watch is 5550 for the short term. Its apprx 50 wma and 34 hr ma. Above it we may see upmove to 200dma.

4. Hrly Closing below last low of 5477 may get apprx 5440 and below which is the gap fill and 50% retrace level of 4770-6112.

5. Sustained upmove only above 200dma closing for atleast 2 sessions.

6. EW counts suggest a completion of W-X-Y move from 6112 and now extending below 5525 to the Monthly trendline since march 2009 onwards.

rajapvt said...

Thanks Aarvee.

chetas said...

Dear Aarvee,

Please do something to remove all this anonymous post, i cannot understand why they come and advertise here

Anonymous@V said...

Dear AV,

Pls update what next, eagerly awaiting. looks like sustained upmove till 5970 with FII short covering

AAR VEE said...

@Chetas ,

Tx for bringing the spam comments to notice. Its a menace every blogger faces ,one can only mark them as spam and delete ,rest is for google to decide.

AAR VEE said...

Anonymous@V ,

1. Last week it was indicated of EW count completion ,+ve divergence ,5550 as imp level ,200dma as target and up move above it.

2.Now 200dma and 50 dma remain positional levels to watch for support.

3. Targets of this move as per fibo. retrace are 5870,5960.

4. Pain has shifted to Bears above 5695 in this series and is likely to continue till expiry.

5. Immediate support is near 5770-90 for up move to continue for the above targets.

6. EW count indicates a 5 wave move from 5477 low . We may be in the 3rd/4th wave of it.

Anonymous@V said...

Great RV,

From the tick reading it is obvious that the bulls are coming back with renewed vigour with each attempt of profit booking. FII were shorting futures and buying stock futures indicative of hedging with positive stance which is now being reversed, almost daily lot of FII short covering in nifty futures seen. The long only funds have been underweight India for the past few weeks which is getting corrected. Indian investors will come with the momentum near the top that is what has been observed in the past. History repeats itself. The past downswing has been good for me from trading viewpoint. Fund flows to keep flowing with no signs of QE withdrawal anytime soon, developed world remians moribund and hence no risk of inflation for them. But for India it was painful which has corrected by luck (oil and commodities coming down )and a bit of hard decision making by RBI and FM.Also slowing of china will be good for India as commodities will maintain downward bias helping CAD/ Fiscal. Govt spending on elections and food security bill leeway due to fisc correction will boost GDP handsomely. Today china figures were negative but france figures were positive wrt expectations. Derivative expiry will pull up markets further. Tech Mahindra and Satyam twins have corrected handsomely from their tops , as I see from the tick movement ( hope your tech analysis will be supportive ) with results expected to be decent esp satyam being a return to growth strategy. Also NMDC looks good on the charts to me. Ranbaxy is a dark horse in pharma who will benefit with rising india GDP and cost savings by the developed world, though it hs risen quite sharply from the lows. Most nifty pharma stocks are at life high.I or my immediate relatives may have position in the mentioned stocks. Consumer, pharma, realty ( though risky )can be good long bets. Realty can surprise on the upside if markets sustain upmove. Shale gas discovery will be a boon and Natgas pricing reform will encourage more gas discovery in 2014. The positives will keep rolling and technical keep improving with corrections though. In the worst of times we have been 4% GDP growth. last Quarter was 4.5%. The only way fundamentally seems up.

Keep posting your technicals, they help me a lot.

Cheers
Anonymous@V

rajapvt said...

Commodity prices going down. Any possibility of going new high?

Tushar Thete said...

Hi Aarvee,

Request you to plot EW counts for short term direction.

Thanks in Advance!!

AAR VEE said...

Pl check . Will post later tonight .

Anonymous@V said...

satyam and techm have pulled up sharply as expected from oversold.....the consumer story that I have been advocating is validated by the HUL raising stake in the indian subsidiary....would like to reassess nmdc as iron ore prices outlook seems dim......no pullback from oversold bad sign....indian hotels looks good for upmove after long - time correction...crompton greaves good bet from medium term....almost near bottom.....Tisco looks good for continued upmove till 322 to 335....I or my immediate relatives may have stake / trading position in mentioned stocks....

eagerly await your nifty insights RV...though i expect new highs based on the technical strength and underlying liquidity and economy troughing out....lot of nifty stocks are near life lows....when they pullback 6300 earlier top may be easily taken out....

Cheers


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