Sunday, December 9, 2012

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty




Please check the trading insight provided at the end of the last post- CLICK HERE , we now move forward with it in the charts and observations given below-



1. Weekly Chart :



2. Channels :



3. Daily Chart :



4. Hourly Chart :



5. Options Data :



6. Alternate Bullish Pattern :



Now the trading insight in short term may be as follows -

Markets are in a larger uptrend but now with signs of exhaustion in daily time frame.

Broader range of trading may be 5800-6000 with a downward bias this week. 
In the short term this range has higher probability of breaking down than up as of now, till closes below the recent top of 5950.

Upmove to resume/extend on closing above 5950-70 only (with targets of 6050,6150 apprx) . Below last session low of 5890 , weakness will creep in price structure (with targets of 5825 ,5790,5735 ).




   

16 comments:

Tejpreet Singh Chadha said...

Thanks a lot Aarvee ji for your crisp analysis. Appreciate your efforts. Keep up the good work. Hope to see follow up weekly updates.
I have been silent follower of this blog :-)

Karthikg:- I would also take this opportunity to highlight your excellent analysis time to time on this blog.

Happy trading :-)

Waquar said...

Love ur posts aarvee, how simply u illustrate the different probabilities :-)

Anonymous@Vee said...

Thanks RV,

Looks like 5825 will hold and uptrend will resume based on fundamental hindsights....short term overbought but watch for speed of correction to 5825....fund flows remain positive....also november expiry was explosive on the upside so the bullish bias continues....watch out for infrastructure stocks as interest rates come down and NIB is cleared....Keep up with your good work....Cheers

SP said...

Nothing can escape from your THIRD EYE! & Thanks for sharing. Have a nice time :)

Piyush Sharda said...

good work rv

Smita said...

Thanks RV !

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Very objective analysis, how anyone can object? Very good work, keep it up:)

Rgrds,

Kumar

AAR VEE said...

Thanks,dear Tejpreetji,Waquar,Anonymous,SP,Piyush,Smita and Kumarji ,for encouraging and leaving positive comments.Regards

Todays action throws up 5910 as an important price level (SAR) for positional trade ,above or below which a trending move may happen. Will depend on open and ORB 15 min for trading the swing.

Anonymous said...

Hello Aarvee,

Excellent unbiased analysis by presenting the alternate view too! What do you think of today's move? Fresh 52 week high followed by sharp drop and close below 5900. Anything important your third eye can discern?

Thanks in advance.
Badri

AAR VEE said...

Hi Badri ,

Thanks for ur comments .

Basic insight remains the same of signals of exhaustion.

Tradingwise 5910 as mentioned yesterday is imp pivot., one has to manage it with booking at resistances in this uptrend.

Tomorrow again we may see the whipsaw of this level .

correction has been sideways till now more of timewise and less price retrace.

some indications that retest of top or a new high may come before some move downwards if its still trading the 4th subwave for the move since 5548 .

levels to trade remain same as mentioned in the post.

AAR VEE said...

WEEKEND UPDATE :16-12-12
--------------------------

The trading insight remains same as in the post above.

5910 now is imp level as mentioned in the comment above on closing basis ,above which we can see the upmove .Below 5880, the last close, it remains weak.

Target remains same on both sides with minor adjustments (due to a new top formed above 5950 that of 5965 last week).

Ananymous@V said...

Thanks RV...
always eagerly await update from you...hope you find time to comment if there is any change expected from your weekly update....

As usual undercurrents look shinning bright....plenty of liquidity promised by the Fed again ....it goes by QE4 or any other name.....Retail investors who were caught in the last bull run around 19000-19500 when lot of mutual funds ( MFs ) were having positive fund flows...are exiting now....this supply will get exhausted soon.....and the tide will turn whem markets hit new high....retail money will come again....not many offerings in primary markets....all recent placements and IPOs in the positive....investors are in the money....rate cuts by RBI round the corner....watch for US treasuries yield climbing up....rupee to strengthen going forward.....if infrastructure bottlenecks can be sorted out.....new high and sustained bull run in the wings....it is india shining again....


As i said last time...watch for speed of correction to 5830...it tested only 5840 and that too reluctantly and briefly....indicates bullish fervour.... looks like 5970 will be taken out....with a bang.....already on the futures side....6002 has been tested....in dec series....

Dear RV thanks for accomodating my comments...

Cheers

AAR VEE said...

Ananymous@V,

Thanks for sharing detail inputs ,my update is in last comment posted yesterday.

Parminder said...

Hi, Aarvee sir,
waiting for ur latest updates with detailed analysis as always.
Regards

salimkabani said...

sir
this is my first visit to this blog.
really amazing.

hope for early updating

thanks a lot.

COMMODITY TIPS,MCX COMMODITY TIPS said...

The rupee was at 60.64/67 in early trades as against Thursday’s close Of 60.43/44. Agri Tips

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