Sunday, December 23, 2012

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty


One can check couple of previous Posts to get the Trading insight and EW Counts being followed . Check charts there for developing Negative Diversions appearing in the resistance zone of 5950-70 starting for 10 min and moving to Hourly and Daily time frame and now in Weekly .
The Charts and Observations have been updated below. -

1. Weekly :



2. Daily :



3. Hourly :



4. Fibonacci Retrace :



5. Pattern :



Conclusions :

1. Resistance zone remains 5950-70 on closing basis , below which the bias is Down . Sell on Rise Market Positionally .

2. 5910 to act as immediate resistance on closing basis in short term .

3. The down move may continue in near term for targets 5810,5790,5745. (May just whipsaw 5800 to move up also this week )

4. A corrective up move may develop in short term to retrace this down move from 5965( Wave B-4 ). It may then bring a further down leg to complete this corrective as a whole (Wave C-4) .  The targets later may be 5715,5600,5550 in medium term TF ,if this probability holds .

5. Up move now to resume only on close above 5970 which may invalidate this probability discussed above . Caution for bearish view on close above 5895-5910 in short term .


22 comments:

AAR VEE said...

Dear Parminder and salimkabani -

Thanks for leaving your comments in last post .
Regards

Ananymous@V said...

Technicals as easy as they can be...made by RV.....hats off.....topi off....

but I still beleieve given the funds flow.....markets will trend up.....there is no place for the money to flow....except india....

NIKUNJ NARIYA said...

Thankx Aarvee ji
for your splendid
analysis. Hope
to see follow up
weekly updates.
I have been silent
follower of this
blog
Have a great start to the week :)

jai shree krishna

salimkabani said...

sir
thanks a lot for update.

Piyush Sharda said...

good analysis rv. left oi this time.
we r close to expiry thats why?

AAR VEE said...

Ananymous@V,

Nothing like it ,I have my share of rights and wrongs on regular basis.

Check 2010 FII figures and see what happened in 2011 ,not that its going to happen again, just a lesson from near history.

Demand and supply is what makes the market ,price shows it and TA may help to arrive at that probability early. Trying to post that trade able probabilities.Learning still--

Regards

AAR VEE said...

@NIKUNJ NARIYA ,

Thanks for ur comment .

I post normally every week,depends on market and trading insight too .If not as a separate post then u can find update in comments of the latest post.Normally with a new post i like to give new development noted.

Regards

AAR VEE said...

@salimkabani

Thanks

AAR VEE said...

@Piyush ,
Thanks for ur comment ,
U R Right about the options O.I .The main game of writing options happened already in range of 5800-6000 as pointed in last posts and this being truncated week.
I like to post the analysis of what i'm trading and how i arrived at the probability after filtering say 2-3 dozen charts ,indicators and data. :)

Piyush Sharda said...

got it rv,
thanx.
and merry christmas

Prithvi Yashashvi said...

@Aar Vee,

Same copy to JnFamily's Charts.

I think its a total copy of than blog.

AAR VEE said...

@PS,

Same to U,

@Prithvi ,

Thanks for visiting here and commenting .I wish u were more detailed in ur wonderful insight.Do some back test and let me know the results . They teach some good things at JN weekend post ,Hope people like u take some benefit and do well in life.

Regards

Ananymous@V said...

Dear RV,

It is not just fund flows that I am tracking.....the sentiment is too bullish for india.......esp among FII's..... Retail still remain sellers in 19000-19500 range....but for how long.....also world eco is showing signs of pick up this year ....for 2013.......and liquidity at present is unprecedented.....never before seen in history.....investment by consummer companies being made in india over next 2 years is equal to last 2 decades....retail fdi is a game changer.....DTC and GST may boost GDP by 1 to 1.5%.....more gas finds in KG basin and fall in gold price/imports to correct current account....leading to appreciation of rupee....double benefit for FII's....no wonder they will saok up all the supply before retail investors return....keep watching....and of course keep sharing ur valuable technicals....they help me a lot.....

Anonymous@V said...

Can someone provide a link to JNfamils charts please....it may be of some help to me.......

AAR VEE said...

Ananymous@V ,

Thanks for ur detailed view ,provides a perspective .

AAR VEE said...

WEEKEND UPDATE :30-01-12 :
----------------------------

1. The insight remains the same as in the post above,that of downward bias positionally till closing above 5970.(should be tuned with short term now as range break likely to happen this week )

2.Nothing much happened as we traded in the range with forming lower highs from 5965-5940-5930 .

3.The crossroad closing happened exactly in the 5895-5910 zone but just below 5910 in the last session, making the bias price neutral in the short term.

4.Short term trading signal may come from trading above last two sessions high of 5930 for upwards and similarly below 5864 for downsides.break of these two levels now on closing basis may be taken as range break with caution till 5970 and 5825 on position for the respective traded side.

5.Early days in options in Jan series but some good addition in far off puts seen at 55,56,5700 pe.

Trade well.

Anonymous@V said...

Right RV, too narrow market for quite some time now....looks like this week will give a direction......but anyways rather than the broader nifty it is the stock specific and sector specific game that is playing out now....

Anonymous said...

Interesting game is that options ranging from 5800 to 6000/6100 (max). Let's see how the market goes all about.

Girish Desai said...

RV,

Just wanted to Wish You and your blog readers a Very Happy and Fruitful New Year.

Thanks for all your fantastic posts made throughout the year. Hope you continue making your analysis/posts in 2013 too!

Thanks,
Girish



San said...

Hi AAR VEE
Thanks for the wishes.
Wish you a Happy and prosperous 2013.

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Girish and SAN ,I heartily reciprocate the same.

Regards

COMMODITY TIPS,MCX COMMODITY TIPS said...

The rupee was at 60.64/67 in early trades as against Thursday’s close Of 60.43/44. Agri Tips

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