Saturday, April 14, 2012

Dialling Wrong Numbers

February’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) came in at a lower-than-expected 4.1 percent compared with expectations of over 6 percent. But that’s not the shocker. The shocker is that the government revised the IIP for January to 1.1 percent from 6.8 percent earlier.

The government has been proved wrong several times over while making various estimates for the financial year ending March 2012. It was wrong on virtually every forecast from GDP growth and inflation to fiscal deficit and the tax take. This was the third blunder in government data collection in a year and a half, the two other being on exports last year and GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2010-11. Revision per se is not bad but the problem is the deviations are huge.

The IIP data was revised after a month of spotting the error. It took the Commerce Ministry a full seven months to admit it made a mistake in calculating its data on exports last year. (In December, Commerce Secretary announced a $9.4 billion correction in exports data for April-October 2011 due to a computer crash and data entry errors.)

India’s chief statistician, TCA Anant, in the television interviews says, “These things at an individual industry level can happen. It is very hard to explain what the reason behind it is, but these do happen. So we do not advise people to use the IIP as guides at the product level.”

Try telling  this to the traders who get massacred in the Market moves caused by the Players who normally have inside information of all these datas and looks like  that these datas are even being manufactured  for aiding the manipulators now .

Is it a Scam which has some pattern, aiding the Stock Market manipulators or is it simply  the rot that has engulfed all of the Government structure ? 

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