Sunday, September 25, 2011

Technical Analysis for Nifty

After a big fall in a single session and a followup the next session , we now look for a reaction to it and the probable Resistance levels . The larger Trend is down and almost have confirmed the end of the corrective upmove (of apprx 38%+ ) from the lows of 4720 . Now the larger TF Downtrend takes the driving seat again.

1. Indicators :

The Daily chart has given a sell in indicators after Negative Diversion wrt. a Double Top . The Prices are now trading below the Mid Bollinger Band ,which will act as Resistance at apprx. 5000 levels.

2. Pattern :

The corrective upmove traded in a Triangle Pattern and broke that down last week . There may be a Retrace and Lower Trendline ,which acted as a Support, will now be the Resistance.

3. Moving Averages :

The Weekly 5EMA  Chart shows that close has been below the Weekly Low ema and now any move to Weekly 5 close ema , at apprx. 4990 , will now act as Resistance.

The Short term Averages of 5-20 ema have given a Bearish cross and now they will act as Resistance at 4980 and 5030.

4. Fibonacci :

If the low has been made last week for this leg ,The chart below shows the probable retrace levels which will offer resistance to reactive upmove.

5. Volume Profile :

The 10d Volume Profile has 5035 level as POC which will act as Resistance to any upmove and the Trend is down below it in the short trem . One should also remember that the POC on Thrusday, when markets fell big time , was 4995.

6. FII Data :

The FII's have turned big sellers in last two sessions.

7. USD v/s INR :

Owing to the Global uncertainity and fiscal management by Funds etc , USD has shooted up as an asset class . The corelation  with Nifty and impact on it can be read in a previous Post - Click Here 

8. Elliott Wave Analysis:

The Basic count that I have been following -  Click Here
 shows that we are in wave C(Y) with probable targets given.

We now may have completed the 4th wave of C(Y) and are in the wave 5 trading.

So , any bounce up now will be Resisted in the range of 4950-5050. The Down Trend may prevail after that . The Expiry week may throw in an odd surprise owing to squaring off positions and rollover to next series.

Happy Trading !!!


bizagra said...

Thanks Aarvee.

niftymagician said...

thanks RV for the complete and clear picture ..and confirmation of 5 wave start.

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Bizagra and Niftymagician