After a big fall in a single session and a followup the next session , we now look for a reaction to it and the probable Resistance levels . The larger Trend is down and almost have confirmed the end of the corrective upmove (of apprx 38%+ ) from the lows of 4720 . Now the larger TF Downtrend takes the driving seat again.
1. Indicators :
The Daily chart has given a sell in indicators after Negative Diversion wrt. a Double Top . The Prices are now trading below the Mid Bollinger Band ,which will act as Resistance at apprx. 5000 levels.
2. Pattern :
The corrective upmove traded in a Triangle Pattern and broke that down last week . There may be a Retrace and Lower Trendline ,which acted as a Support, will now be the Resistance.
3. Moving Averages :
The Weekly 5EMA Chart shows that close has been below the Weekly Low ema and now any move to Weekly 5 close ema , at apprx. 4990 , will now act as Resistance.
The Short term Averages of 5-20 ema have given a Bearish cross and now they will act as Resistance at 4980 and 5030.
4. Fibonacci :
If the low has been made last week for this leg ,The chart below shows the probable retrace levels which will offer resistance to reactive upmove.
5. Volume Profile :
The 10d Volume Profile has 5035 level as POC which will act as Resistance to any upmove and the Trend is down below it in the short trem . One should also remember that the POC on Thrusday, when markets fell big time , was 4995.
6. FII Data :
The FII's have turned big sellers in last two sessions.
7. USD v/s INR :
Owing to the Global uncertainity and fiscal management by Funds etc , USD has shooted up as an asset class . The corelation with Nifty and impact on it can be read in a previous Post - Click Here
8. Elliott Wave Analysis:
The Basic count that I have been following - Click Here
shows that we are in wave C(Y) with probable targets given.
We now may have completed the 4th wave of C(Y) and are in the wave 5 trading.
So , any bounce up now will be Resisted in the range of 4950-5050. The Down Trend may prevail after that . The Expiry week may throw in an odd surprise owing to squaring off positions and rollover to next series.
Happy Trading !!!