Sunday, September 11, 2011

Technical Analysis for Nifty


We have retraced the downmove from 5700- 4720 by apprx. 9% on the upside in the last two weeks . Now coming couple of weeks may see some consolidation/ range trading before the downmove resumes again. Let us check the Tecnicals -

1. The Daily chart Indicators are in Overbought zone giving a Sell signal (almost ) . But interesting is to check the Weekly chart which has moved from Oversold to Buy. This conflict shows a Range bound / Consolidation Phase ahead.



The Broader Range as shown by Bollinger Bands may be 4800-5200.


2. The weakness is evident in Hourly charts where the Trendline of the recent upmove since 4720-5168 has broken down. But remember , breaking of any Trendline need not be  a Reversal of Trend , but only a signal of  the End of prevailing Trend in that Time Frame .



3. The Pattern formed may be a Rising Wedge and can be looked as a Wolfe Wave formation . To Read more about it - Click Here


The Price objective of the Target is near 4925 level.


4. The Moving Averages on the Weekly chart indicates an Upmove only above 5180 level and Downmove confirmation on a close below 4920 level with 5030 level as a Pivot .



5. The  Bias remains Down below 5130 Level as per 10d Volume Profile.





6.The Elliott wave charts can be read with Basic Count - Click Here and further Updated with Price Targets and Chart Click Here

We may now have finished the first leg up, Wave A of the wave 4 -C (Y) as per the preferable count.



Now we may be in the Wave B- 4 down for which conservative Targets are shown as in the chart below.



So a Probable Sideways move for Next couple of Weeks , broadly between 4800 - 5200 with possible suprises on downside ( may be below 4800 ) or on upside (may be above series High ). Trade Light untill resolves .


11 comments:

Sandeep said...

Dear RV,

Thanxs a lot. This shows sign of a great heart.

Regards

Sandeep

niftymagician said...

thanks R V ,.... was waiting for this complete analysis without which feeling incomplete .....now .for the week we are comfortable

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Thanx for showing us a fantastic technical movie on sunday, very good work...keep it up, thanx again:)

Rgrds

Kumar

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Dear Sandeep, Nifty Magician and Kumarji for leaving good words here

Regards

vj said...

Thanks AARVEE :)

bizagra said...

Thanks Aarvee..

AAR VEE said...

Thanks vj and bizagra for checking out and leaving comments.

parminder said...

Thanks Aarvee,
for depicting ur charts and providing ur great analysis which is easy to understand.
keep guiding

KRG said...

hi Aar Vee: Hows ur trading blog coming along?
What is the MT call now? Myself thinking that the range of 5200-5400 should cap this rally.Or we might have already seen the intermediate top. The Rupee is a major question mark here... first time I am seeing it totally delinked to Asian ccys as well as Nifty.... Cann't update much on blogs as our office decided to block all blogs as per SEBI's guidelines !! Do stay in touch... Cheers

AAR VEE said...

Hi KRG,

Thanks for the comment.The subscription is going along fine ,with the new Blog- The Trading Journal updated with analysis,trade insights and trading plans.
This week is critical for ant short term trending move.We are in the last leg of the upmove corrective.For how long it may drag may be answered this week.

What are the SEBI guidelines that are applicable to ur office to block the Blogs ????

Regards

srikrishna said...

thanks for your updation which helps me to get some important data....

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