Sunday, July 17, 2011

Technical Watch for Nifty



Nifty is in consolidating phase as metioned in last weekend post. Nothing much has changed on the broader technicals . The consolidation may continue for this week too, testing and rewarding the patience and discipline or can give a breakout trade one way. Lets check the Technical Insight for this Week .


1. As mentioned in last few posts , Broader movement of Nifty is within a Triangle. Now a Rising Wedge pattern is develpoing on the Daily charts. This is a bearish pattern and one should be cautious of the break of the lower trendline.



2. After Trading below the 5day lowema , Nifty is back in the consolidation and trading range of 5d highema and 5day lowema. Closing above/below this range will signal the start of a breakout. for near term. Approx. values for that will be 5630 and 5550.



3. The Options data indicates to a good support at 5500 levels by accumulation of Open Interest above 1.0cr at 5500 puts , similarly the largest O.I. on Call side is at 5700 indicates a Resistance here. 5600 remains a conflict level ,where calls exceed the puts giving a downward bias. Break of 5500 will be quite bearish and will give a fast trending downmove.



4. The Broader Range is bound by 200dma at apprx. 5730 level and 50dma at apprx. 5500 level . A bigger trending move is expected in the direction of breakout above /below these levels.



5. The Elliot wave analysis suggest the ongoing correction of wave 'b' within a larger correction of wave 'B' . The wave b is in its second leg (Red scenario) or third leg (Blue scenario) making it all the more difficult to call the exact direction in near term .


Break of 50dma and 5500 level may suggest an alternate scenario of completion of B wave at 5740 and onset of larger C wave down which may be in its 2nd wave now.


6. An easy way out is to keep the SAR at 5630 as per 10d Volume Profile and trade for the important levels mentioned above. 



Time to trade light and grind your axe patiently till a Breakout trade happens. Be prepared for whipsaws and false breakouts by using the stoploss .

21 comments:

Alpesh , Daxesh said...

Dear RV,
yr analyse in mrk is supereb on one way.plz send me yr E-BOOK 1 AND E-BOOK 5 my mail @ akanparia@yahoo.com
thx for that
regards,
Alpesh

Alpesh , Daxesh said...

thx for this i got it

AAR VEE said...

@ Alpesh -

Thanks for visting ,hope u find the books helpful.
Regards

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Beautiful work again, very good presentation. I am sitting on my computer in relax mood since 1 pm but not able to make mood to do any technical analysis. But ur analysis gave me booster dose & its worthy of praise everytime. My Guru always said me, be a good analyst later but 1st be a good man and i really see all those qualities in you & your work. You r really very humble & down to earth. I will always pray to God to bless you & ur family.

Rgrds

Kumar

AAR VEE said...

Dear Kumarji,

Your nice words and encouragement in abundance reflects the manifestation of ur own personality.Thanks for it.

Regards

Prabakar said...

Dear RV,

Thanks for your clear and crisp view time and again.

Thanks & Regards,
Prabakar

venkatapathy l said...

RV,

They are incredibly beautiful charts and remarkably insightful write ups. Enjoyable. Prepares me for the week ahead.

Thanks and regards.

LV

AAR VEE said...

Hi Prabakar-

Thanks,
U are doing a wonderful job of sharing the daily Option O.I.
Regards

AAR VEE said...

@ venkatapathy -

Hope the writeup helps as intended.

Regards

vj said...

Thanks AARVEE :)

AAR VEE said...

@vj -

Welcome :))

Anonymous said...

Dear RV,

Please send your technical book to my email id ebook1 to ebook5. meena.marthandam@gmail.com

Regards
Meena

AAR VEE said...

@ Meena-

Check mail ,sent some of the starters ebooks for TA.

Regards

shriram said...

RV ji,

Kindly review the EW count for Nifty ji from 5740 as follows & tell me if its acccurate :-

The downwave from 5740 in three waves ABC has done so far
A=5740-5497
B=5497-5654
C=5654 to down in 5 waves likely target 5411
Has done so far
C:
W1 (of C) : 5654-5580
W2 (of C) : 5580 - 5596
W3 (of C) : 5596 - ** playing to the DOWN

Does this look like a probable count ? W3 (of C) should start to the DOWN with target of 5411 ?? Pls advise if I am on the right track

rgds
SMO

shriram said...

RV ji,

Am also interested in knowing your views on BATA, LNT & BHEL .

could you pls look @ those 3 from TA, & EW angle & share ur views pls?

Ur blog is very addictive, keep up the good work :-)

rgds
Shriram

AAR VEE said...

@shriram -

Please check out the EW chart in the above post ,the blue scenario is the probability u are suggesting.it can be a zigzag correction where C down is on .Just be prudent to keep a s/l of ur count in case it goes wrong.
because though the trend is down below 5630 ,5500 looks a good support.

Sorry I dont follow specific stocks.

Thanks

jigs said...

Simple and easy to understand. As usual rajeev You rocks

jigs said...

Simple and easy to understand. As usual rajeev You rocks

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Jigs -

Your hand in the pic. is selling or buying Gold :))

Arvind Jain said...

Plzz Send Me Ebook At Mail Id

krppi.jain@yahoo.co.in

AAR VEE said...

@ Arvind-

Hi ,

I am in the process of removing all the ebooks from 4shared.com due to some issues.
So will not be able to provide the links.

Regards
RV

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