Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Elliott Wave ,Fibonacci, Moving Averages, Patterns and Nifty


Analyzing the probable Short Term path of Nifty by Elliott Wave Analysis in corelation with Fibonacci levels , Moving averages ,Volume Profile, Patterns and Option analysis.



1. Please check the basic EW insight being followed - Click Here

and the Short term counts (Red) are shown in the chart below -



2. We are now  larger correction of wave B of the second zigzag Y. It will retrace wave A 5196-5944.



3. The wave B may unfold in three waves a-b-c ,We may now be in wave b.( squared in labelling ). It will retrace wave a-B, 5196-5740, down.



4. This wave b (squared) may also unfold in three waves A-B-C (circled in the labelling). We may be in wave B now .This wave may be in its last leg c and will retrace the wave A (circled), 5740 - 5496 , up .



6. The 10d Volume Profile indicates an upmove above 5570. This level was marked in the Weekend post as initial Support.




7. This Upmove will be resisted at the Traingle Top and Rising Wedge Top marked in the chart.



8. The Option Analysis indicates a solid support at 5500 level now and a probable range expansion with major Resistance coming at 5800 level now.



The Probabilities now in Short term are -

- Resistance to this upmove comes initially at 5650 level and then at 5680-5725 band.

- Crossing the 5710 level will open up the recent high of 5740 (now above 200dma) and then near 5785-5800 levels.

- The Preferred count in Red, indicates a correction from 5680-5725 band that may be held by 5500 level Support and then an upmove to break the Resistances of this band.

- The Alternate count marked in 'Blue' will come into play if crosses the 5740 mark and above in this upmove without meaningful correction. This  indicates that we are now in the last leg c of the larger B wave and also that the start of larger C(Y) down may be from somewhere trading above 200dma /5740/above and near/above Rising wedge top after sucking in all the Longs.

- Now if breaks 5550 and then 50dma will be quite Bearish , changing the Counts and marking start of larger C somewhere at 5740 . Not giving it much importance till TA indicates so.

Have a Profitable Surfing !!!

8 comments:

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

What a clear picture & beautifully drawn levels. Sometimes i would love to take training from you to draw these kind of charts. Thanx again & keep it up.

Rgrds,

Kumar

Alpesh , Daxesh said...

Dear RV,
What a supperb clearty in nifty movies, i beat very confuse in nifty last 2 days,& today more than with 'EW" count that what next now?
i steel very confuse after mkt hours in nifty with count. But yr clearty now in nifty i feel good that now i get suppoerb picture with level
KEEP IT UP
BEST REGADRS,
ALPESH

AAR VEE said...

Dear Kumarji,

Humbled by your constant appreciation and encouragement.But its a fact that analyzing and charting is only the basis of trading but trading itself is most important which u do wonderfully and confidently.(which ofcourse I should learn from u :))

Regards

AAR VEE said...

@Alpesh -

Thanks for the comment.
If u had gone through the weekend post ,5600 level was the conflict level which seems to have resolved now,prices did not close below dlema and got support from 5570 level as mentioned. It was only confusing somewhat for intraday players .

Regards

parminder said...

HI R V,
its always nice to lsiten to ur views and take a look at ur charts and ur outlook.
Keep guiding

AAR VEE said...

Hi Parminder-

Thanks for ur comment and welcome aboard.

satheesh said...

AARVEE,

Good Analysis with great effort.

Anonymous said...

is it alternate scenario that we are in 5th wave

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