Recently I have been reading about the coming Lunar Eclipse and tried to research about its effect on Stock Markets . This Post is compilation of resources from the Net covering the various aspects of Astrology , Lunar Cycles, Time Cycles , Lunar Eclipse etc . For me the topics are more of Paranormal Activities due to lack of my knowledge and understanding the same but of great interest too.
A line that is attributed to J. P. Morgan—“Millionaires don’t have astrologers, but billionaires do” says all about the importance of Astrology in Financial Markets.
I myself am an astro-illiterate , below is an excerpt of an Astro-report on Nifty that I have been following and find it quite good till now .
Lets have a look at the major astronomical transits during the period in consideration.
From 09/05/2011 till the end of the year, Jupiter will be travelling through the Aries, a sign ruled by Mars.Saturn will spend the year in the Virgo, a sign ruled by Mercury; a planet considered friendly with Saturn. Rahu will transits to Scorpio with effect from 07/06/2011 . Ketu will transit to Taurus with effect from 07/06/2011 .
During 08/06/2011 to 25/06/2011, Rahu entering into Scorpio Ascendant of Mars will make the markets highly volatile, and there will be a movement northwards, but due to a very high volatility, the market will be on the negative side from 26/06/2011 to 17/07/2011. The results can be devastating..
Lunar Cycles :
People have been following the Moon Cycles for trading the Stock Markets since ages .There is empirical evidence also for its authenticity . They find strong lunar cycle effects in stock returns. Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates, This pattern of returns is pervasive and true for all major U.S. stock indexes over the last 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years. In contrast, there is no reliable or economically important evidence of lunar cycle effecting in return volatility and volume of trading. Taken as a whole, this evidence is consistent with popular beliefs that lunar cycles affect human behavior.
Whether Lunar Cycles can affect individual or mass psychology is a subject that has been debated for centuries. Stock traders have long had a saying, "Sell the Full Moon, buy the New Moon" and it is remarkable how often new and full moons can mark a turn in the market within a day or two.
Incidentally 15th June 2011 is a Full Moon Day.
Time Cycles :
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law . . . the same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the skies is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." . Edward R. Dewey’s book – "Cycles : The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events" starts with this Mark Twain quote .
The science of cycles deals with events that recur with reasonable regularity. Such events may be in nature, business, or anything else. The important thing about regularity is that it implies predictability.
I have been reading about Martin Armstrong of Princeton Economics International ,a genius who developed a Panic Cycle Model, which spotted big reversal days, rooted in certain fundamentals and complex computer calculations, and predicted Oct 1987 crash ,1989 Nikkei Peak , Fall of Russia , etc ,right to the date and was later jailed by U.S. authorities .He has recently been released and has been writing from jail and now ,some enlightening newsletters ,
One of the recent newletter based on his 8.6 years time cycle ( 8.6 years is exactly 3141 days or Pi x 1000 ) is predicting June mid as important turn date .
You may read about Martin Armstrong - Click Here
His June 5th Newsletter – Is the End Near ? can be checked - Click Here
Lunar Eclipse – Puetz Window of Crash :
I found reading about this topic the most interesting . Here is a summary of what I gathered .
Four partial solar and two total lunar eclipses take place in 2011. This 4:2 combination of solar and lunar eclipses in a single year is rather rare with only six cases during the 21st Century , 2011, 2029, 2047, 2065, 2076 and 2094.
Also , On Wednesday of this week the second longest total lunar eclipse of the century will occur, where the moon passes directly in front of the center of the Earth's shadow .The last lunar eclipse closer to the center of the earth's shadow was on July 16, 2000, and the next central total lunar eclipse will be on July 27, 2018. This lunar eclipse is part of a rare solar-lunar-solar eclipse series that began with a partial solar eclipse on June 1st.
Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse.
Puetz was not saying that so-called "Puetz windows" always lead to crashes, but that if a crash is going to occur, a Puetz window would be the likely time frame in which it would happen. He does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar eclipse full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be less than one chance in 127,000.
Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
Solar eclipse was on June 1st, and full moon that is also a total Lunar Eclipse is June on 15th 2011. Pretty interesting !! We are now in the Puetz Window of crash.
Elliott Wave Analysis :
The most probable count that I have been following is that –
- We may be in the larger ‘C’ wave down of the A-B-C that started from Nov. 2010 .
CLICK HERE FOR LONG TERM EW COUNT
- Of this the A and the B waves have been completed and we are in C down now.This C down is unfolding in 5 wave pattern of which the wave 1 has been completed at recent low of 5328 .We currently are in wave 2 . This wave 2 is in the last leg of its wave c (may be in the 3 –c ).
As estimated in this post , timewise correction of this wave2 may end in mid June ,we are close to its end by wave counts too.
CLICK HERE FOR SHORT TERM EW COUNT
CLICK HERE FOR NEAR TERM EW COUNT
Time to be cautious for a big wave 3 of the larger C down. (The estimates of wave 3 and wave C in price will be covered in the next weekend post) .
The above compilation points to a turn of events that may be triggering soon and the impact of which can continue to mid July 2011 . It may be debated on the methods above but it cautions us to trade judiciously . The Fundamentals all around the World and India in particular are also not exactly rosy .
Caution comes from the recent similar incidents widely discussed on Trading forums and Net in general but which failed to take off , one was of a ‘Hindenburg Omen’ that signals reliably stock market crashes and another of a rare ‘Cardinal Cross’ in Aug 2010 which was to bring the doomsday , ( incidentally I had posted a contrary view based on technicals against that correctly - CLICK HERE ).
Technically as of now , Trading below 5480 will be the first sign of caution , stressed by trading below 5430 and confirmed by closing below 5400 . Remember that 5550 is the SAR this week.
I am wearing my 'Crash' helmet and taking out the surf board to ride the next ‘Wave’.