Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Nifty : Astrology , Lunar Cycle, Time Cycle, Eclipse, Elliott Wave and Crash Ahead ???


Recently I have been reading about the coming Lunar Eclipse and tried to research about its effect on Stock Markets . This Post is compilation of resources from the Net covering the various aspects of Astrology , Lunar Cycles, Time Cycles , Lunar Eclipse etc . For me the topics are more of Paranormal Activities due to lack of my knowledge and understanding the same but of great interest too.




Astrology :

 A line that is attributed to J. P. Morgan—“Millionaires don’t have astrologers, but billionaires do” says all about the importance of Astrology in Financial Markets.

I myself am an astro-illiterate , below  is an excerpt of an Astro-report on Nifty that I have been following and find it quite good till now .

Lets have a look at the major astronomical transits during the period in consideration.

From 09/05/2011 till the end of the year, Jupiter will be travelling through the Aries, a sign ruled by Mars.Saturn will spend the year in the Virgo, a sign ruled by Mercury; a planet considered friendly with Saturn. Rahu will transits to Scorpio with effect from 07/06/2011 . Ketu will transit to Taurus with effect from 07/06/2011 .

During 08/06/2011 to 25/06/2011, Rahu entering into Scorpio Ascendant of Mars will make the markets highly volatile, and there will be a movement northwards, but due to a very high volatility, the market will be on the negative side from 26/06/2011 to 17/07/2011. The results can be devastating..

Lunar Cycles :



People have been following the Moon Cycles for trading the Stock Markets since ages .There is empirical evidence also for its authenticity . They find strong lunar cycle effects in stock returns. Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates, This pattern of returns is pervasive and true for all major U.S. stock indexes over the last 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years. In contrast, there is no reliable or economically important evidence of lunar cycle effecting in return volatility and volume of trading. Taken as a whole, this evidence is consistent with popular beliefs that lunar cycles affect human behavior.

Whether Lunar Cycles can affect individual or mass psychology is a subject that has been debated for centuries. Stock traders have long had a saying, "Sell the Full Moon, buy the New Moon" and it is remarkable how often new and full moons can mark a turn in the market within a day or two.

Incidentally 15th June 2011 is a Full Moon Day.


Time Cycles :


"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law . . . the same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the skies is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." . Edward R. Dewey’s book – "Cycles : The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events" starts with this Mark Twain quote .

The science of cycles deals with events that recur with reasonable regularity. Such events may be in nature, business, or anything else. The important thing about regularity is that it implies predictability.

 I have been reading about Martin Armstrong of Princeton Economics International ,a genius who developed a Panic Cycle Model, which spotted big reversal days, rooted in certain fundamentals and complex computer calculations, and predicted Oct 1987 crash ,1989 Nikkei Peak , Fall of Russia , etc ,right to the date and was later jailed by U.S. authorities .He has recently been released and has been writing from jail and now ,some enlightening newsletters ,

One of the recent newletter based on his 8.6 years time cycle ( 8.6 years is exactly 3141 days or Pi x 1000 ) is predicting June mid as important turn date .

You may read about Martin Armstrong - Click Here

His June 5th Newsletter – Is the End Near ? can be checked - Click Here


Lunar Eclipse – Puetz Window of Crash :

 


I found reading about this topic the most interesting . Here is a summary of what I gathered .


Four partial solar and two total lunar eclipses take place in 2011. This 4:2 combination of solar and lunar eclipses in a single year is rather rare with only six cases during the 21st Century , 2011, 2029, 2047, 2065, 2076 and 2094.


Also , On Wednesday of this week the second longest total lunar eclipse of the century will occur, where the moon passes directly in front of the center of the Earth's shadow .The last lunar eclipse closer to the center of the earth's shadow was on July 16, 2000, and the next central total lunar eclipse will be on July 27, 2018. This lunar eclipse is part of a rare solar-lunar-solar eclipse series that began with a partial solar eclipse on June 1st.

Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. 


Puetz was not saying that so-called "Puetz windows" always lead to crashes, but that if a crash is going to occur, a Puetz window would be the likely time frame in which it would happen. He does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar eclipse full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be less than one chance in 127,000.


Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Solar eclipse was on June 1st, and full moon that is also a total Lunar Eclipse is June on 15th 2011. Pretty interesting !! We are now in the Puetz Window of crash.


Elliott Wave Analysis :


The most probable count that I have been following is that –


- We may be in the larger ‘C’ wave down of the A-B-C that started from Nov. 2010 .

CLICK HERE FOR LONG TERM EW COUNT

- Of this the A and the B waves have been completed and we are in C down now.This C down is unfolding in 5 wave pattern of which the wave 1 has been completed at recent low of 5328 .We currently are in wave 2 . This wave 2 is in the last leg of its wave c (may be in the 3 –c ).
As estimated in this post , timewise correction of this wave2 may end in mid June ,we are close to its end by wave counts too.

CLICK HERE FOR SHORT TERM EW COUNT

CLICK HERE FOR NEAR TERM EW COUNT

Time to be cautious for a big wave 3 of the larger C down. (The estimates of wave 3 and wave C in price will be covered in the next weekend post) .



The above compilation points to a turn of events that may be triggering soon and the impact of which can continue to mid July 2011 . It may be debated on the methods above but it cautions us to trade judiciously . The Fundamentals all around the World and India in particular are also not exactly rosy .



Caution comes from the recent similar incidents widely discussed on Trading forums and Net in general but which failed to take off , one was of a ‘Hindenburg Omen’ that signals reliably stock market crashes and another of a rare ‘Cardinal Cross’ in Aug 2010 which was to bring the doomsday , ( incidentally I had posted a contrary view based on technicals against that correctly - CLICK HERE ).

Technically as of now , Trading below 5480 will be the first sign of caution , stressed by trading below 5430 and confirmed by closing below 5400 . Remember that 5550 is the SAR this week.

 I am wearing my 'Crash' helmet and taking out the surf board to ride the next ‘Wave’.

There may be relevant truth in the 'Nature’s Law & Secret of the Universe' and to the ancient adage, "As Above, So Below" !!!   


Cheers.!!!


















57 comments:

Anonymous said...

Very Intyeresting, Indeed!!

Nilesh said...

Helpful post si

Sujatha said...

Wow Aarvee

thanks. coincidentally Rakesh Jhunjhunwala also told that another 3 months equity markets are not good.

thanks for your levels.

regards

Ilango said...

Hi..Aarvee,

It is very evident that a lot of efforts & thoughts have gone into this write up. I am sure many would benefit by this well researched article.

Best wishes.

ilango

San said...

Great work Aarvee,

Crisp, clear and useful as always.

Jaganathan said...

informative very nice. Thanks

MINIFTY said...

Hi Aarvee,Very good article. Thank you.

AAR VEE said...

@Anonymous-
Thanks

@Nilesh-
Thanks

AAR VEE said...

@Sujatha-

I think a lot of credit goes to U for bringing the Gann cycles and moon cycles to my notice.Thanks

BTW if RJ is negative about markets them I have to rethink and be cautious,These RJ and SS etc are all manipulators of public sentiments through the media.:))

AAR VEE said...

@Ilango sir-

Really nice of u to visit here and leave a very encouraging comment.

Thanks

AAR VEE said...

@San

Many thanks for the good words.

AAR VEE said...

@MiNifty-
Thanks for visiting and commenting

Anand said...

Very interesting Aar Vee. God bless you to guide us with this advance happenings. Regards

tangotaurian said...

Hi Aarvee,
This is simply superb...amazing write up...keep up the work

Regards,
TT

KRG said...

(1) Nice piece RV

(2) "Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates"...

I guess the returns mentioned are from the long side of the market..

(3) There are other bearish indicators if you like... Rupee is threatening to break lower; OIS swaps seem to have broken lower...

But the bears need to be concerned that there is so much of negative mood already while the price has not even covered a third of the major B (assuming that major B is over at 63xx). Even if we are bearish on the index, cann't deny the value in the mid-cap segment perhaps?

Cheers

naveen said...

Hi

Very good effort indeed , shows your sincerity in sharing with us . thank you .

Sir , can i know which astro website or subscription you have taken the first paragraph from on the nifty movement based on astro ??

my email id is - naveenkumar1977@gmail.com

Thank you .

Natti said...

Hi Aarvee,

I appreciate your effort to understand the astro views and more important to make many understand the same in easy way. Thanks for the good info.

Lakshmi Ramachandran said...

aar vee , nicely put .U made a non believer in such anaysis read it!

Vanquish said...

Amazing analysis ! Such valuable information all under one roof

Natti said...

Dear Aarvee,

If you are interested in Gann Theory, I have usefull videos which explains how Gann traded using astro indications. Entry and exit is clearly explained.

If you are interested to see these videos I will upload and give the link.

Regards,

piyush sharda said...

interesting analysis and
nicely put rv.

so experts are agreeing on crash

2c of C shud break 5600 on upside first before all this??????????

bvdr said...

Hello Aarvee,
You have cleared my confused mind with this wonderful analysis. I wanted to make some long term investment in beaten down Infra Stocks this month since Nifty was taking solid support at 5400.
Really frustrated and nearly committed to buying,as Infra stocks were going up and Nifty always bouncing from 5400 levels despite several negative factors.
I was hoping for a big fall due to Inflation,Scandals,Corruption,Political uncertainity,huge fiscal deficit,high Interest Rates,growth slow down,European crisis,to name a few.But the Market seems unfazed and seems to have ignored all these factors.
Now I think with some patience,I can wait for a break of 5000 levels and wait for 4800 levels before considering LTerm Investment.
Thank You,
bvdr

AAR VEE said...

@Anand-
Thanks

@tangotaurian-
Thanks and for ur excel file at JN too.

AAR VEE said...

@KRG,
ya correct apart from TA ,fundamentals also not looking good.

Waiting for a post from ur end.long overdue.

AAR VEE said...

@Naveen-

will mail u.Its a free pdf report.
Thanks

@Natti-
Thanks and will appreciate ur loading and sharing of gann vdo's.

@Vanquish-
Thanks and all the best for ur blogging efforts.U are doing a nice job.

AAR VEE said...

@Laxmi Madam,

Really nice of u to visit the blog and drop in nice words.In the end TA will rule and factor in the stars too:))

AAR VEE said...

@PS,

Chances here may be of a failure c-2 ,rather than looking out for 5600 ,i would look for break of 5400 for trade.if goes to 5600 than all the more good.

EW should be kept as a guiding indicator only with flexibility.

I try and keep positionals in direction of larger trend and weekly trading in sync with short term trend with light positions.try it ,it will help much to the a/c positiont,the bottomline :))

AAR VEE said...

@bvdr,
Thanks but let me bring it to ur notice-

1. This is in no way a post suggesting some investment target and timing.

2. Technical analysis is what we should follow.

3.Long term target given in Jan was apprx. 4800.which is still achievable

4. Even it may be below 4800 ,which will be analyzed at that time.

5. These all are trading insights and not Investing tips.Investment is something different ball game.I request u to either reach out to fundamental analyst or some qualified financial advisor for startegy of Investment.

Thanks

manu said...

rv pa ji...
mazza aa gaya..
for the time by armstring
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/June13th%2014th%20Turning%20Point%202011.45%2006-14-2011.pdf

we need to wait for sri and suja to add salt n astro..

ps..thats neo 5600 which hard core Ew will ignore..but not rv..

i will look for friday close..if at rv sar5550 and we will be at KRG lvls

piyush sharda said...

rv,
break of 5400 might be still 2b and then rally to 5500+ as 1 wave 1 was .
in corrections the possiblities becomes so much that it becomes difficult.
ur discretionary sar works well like 5480 worked well.

@ manu
lets see. i was just thinking of some small otm puts position for
this crash if it comes.
chota account to chota position :-)
neo jyada palle nahi padti

piyush sharda said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AAR VEE said...

PS,

AS per my probable count ,see in last post,2-b, is over monday's low.we are in 2-c and any voilation of 5430 will lead me to mark it as c failure and start of wave 3.
I have an alternate count also marked where 2-c has already ended at 5570,wave 3 started 1-3 at 5430,2-3 at 5520 and now in i-3 and ii-3 ,lets see what works out.

even i find this break of 5480 quite bearish seeing the US markets in green on close.

SAR always helps to remove noise and pay attention on a single price.Money management along with position sizing is key to trade any SAR.

AAR VEE said...

Hi manu bhai,

long time no see. enjoying vacations kya ??

Thanks for the pdf.

KRG said...

Hi RV: Thanks. I still have doubts on major B. Nevertheless will try to post fresh thoughts on Nifty
Cheers

AAR VEE said...

ya KRG,

I have kept an alternate of larger B not ending if this fall make a higher low. then this B may be travelling in a triangle since 5177.

Amar said...

hi aar vee

is this gann based cycles. i think i got lot of material on Gann which could be shared.

Kindly e-mail if interested.

KRG said...

RV: I am talking of major B that started at 26xx, not ending at 6377 or 6184 !! I don't know of any EW person looking at it this way ... so I could be absolutely wrong...

Yes. I agree that 6377-5348 could be an "A" and since then we are in a "B". A variation of this is a neutral triangle from 6377 and currently in the last leg

bvdr said...

Hi,
I agree LTerm investing is a different strategy altogether. Right now I do a lot of trading. But considering my age factor and health problems I want to cut down my trading and invest 80% as investment for 18 to 20 mths.
So my plan is to invest in midcap stocks whatever be the value when nifty is around 4850 levels.
Now your post has given me confidence that I can wait for Investment and now is not the time to block capital which I almost did.
Till then I`ll keep trading and I find Ilango`s blog an excellent forum to follow with other inputs from knowledgable people like you.
Thanks once again.

AAR VEE said...

@Amar
Thanks ,U can mail me the gann material ,chk profile.

@KRG-

U will have to do a post to make me understand it. not getting the idea. :(

Sujatha said...

AAR VEE - sooooooo broadmind, sharing credit to me also like our dear mynac :) it's happy to see Lakshmi mam here usually she will not visit anywhere i believe and pure TA too :) :D RJ's views just a coincident.. i never bothered :P when TA confused no problem my numerology is there non-ta nos. i will manage with one instantly :D. my 2morow's view 5428 protected 5451,5474/5497. if not protected 5405/5382/5359. Just for fun. check it out.

hi manu - i am scolding u daily u didn't get any hiccubs?? y can't u say Hi atleast@ JN i posted several times to you :) anyway happy to see u back.. all is well :):)

I wish to see piyush's level onceagain 5600 pls. Will it?? all are "bearish" piyush :P i am alone

Mahesh Addicted said...

Hi RV sir,
Kudos for the efforts you have put behind this article.
Going thru I read many readerw also wanted to share their knowledge on gann but striclty on email 2 email ? Here ,you are different from them as you are sharing all the KNOWLEDGE which you have , but not all ? Why No Idea ?
Though not believer in Asro but made mt to read full 2 times. Credit goes to well researched article of YOURS.!!!
With warm regards ,and respect,
Vakharia M J

AAR VEE said...

@Sujatha -

Seniors like Ilango sir and Lakshmi mam coming down and commenting is a real honour.All thanks to them.

1.though i am short from 5480 (HVN in vol profiles)i will like to see 5380 protected tmrw.

2.I may have jumped to count 3-c in the ew post ,we may still be in the last leg of WXY (c-Y)of the b-2 which may end tmrw near 5380-5410.

3.If mkt moves up near/above 5500 in next three days then next mon-tues may be turn days.if so then 5400 puts may give good returns this month.

lets see :)) wishful thinking !!!

AAR VEE said...

@ Vakharia M J-

pl. cut out the 'sir' part.
Thanks for ur comment. Though the post is not related to gann ,i will be haapy to share what i know.In the end all is destiny,even i cannot trade what i analyze sometimes ,if somebody is gaining out of my post ,i am happy to help.:)But would like veerybody putting his hard earned money to learn and earn.

piyush sharda said...

ok rv, alternate count is cool too.
however 2 at 5570 takes only 9 trading days. slightly less in comparision with whole of 1 of c.
no suj ideally there shud be 2c crossein 5605 lets see what happens.
rv can u post ur alternate long term count also this weekend. this C frm 6338 is taking too much time.

piyush sharda said...

then this B may be travelling in a triangle since 5177.

a ending at 5177, b taking form of triangle b.a 5944, b.b 5328, b.c going on. did i get ur long term alternate count????

AAR VEE said...

Hi PS,
mail sent. Thanks

piyush sharda said...

thanx for the mail rv

manu said...

suja..sorry..
didnt visited JN for long time..
searched but didnt find comments on d blog search window..

every post serach difficult as back with Vtrender ppl..

on counts .. i m with KRG ..just pull
the nse charts frm 96..it look and sensex frm 90..it still looks a larger "B" in which the triangle is getting finished from 6338..i dont do post but will do some day..

on money flow ..pattrn is same in all EMs..simply go to yahoo and c charts..in which India s down 20 %..worst performing EM index after egypt..

v need to patch up that..
when how ..only "goras" knw ..
i will wait for sri post n astro..

Rv..pa ji..learning along with Rm these days

Mahesh Addicted said...

Hi RV
Thanks lot 4 u r reply n loved d way
u handle this big traffick.
Secondly , HI 2 all blog friends , I M newbie in this blog , though not trading on nifty atall !!! sounds bit clumsy !! But dont know or rather
dont like to trade day 2 day .May be the later part is oki.

I m a long term investor , and so like to trade that way, anyone , can share the view on that count would like that !!

With warm regars to all ,/\
{^ ^}

Vakharia M J

Jatin said...

Hi RV ,
bit late in commenting.
Indeed very impressive read..

AAR VEE said...

Hi jazz,
Its never too late :))
Thanks

Natti said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Natti said...

Hi RV

I have sent few Gann Tutorial video links to your mail id. If its useful then I will upload few more

bizagra said...

Dear Aarvee, thanks for the wonderful post.I m also short with u, but like to add shorts.should i do it now or still chances of 2-c there??Thanks

AAR VEE said...

@Natti-

Thanks for the mail.will check and let u know.

@bizagra-
Thanks ,u may check out the weekend post :)

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