Weekend Analysis

Indicators :

The short term and medium term indicators are showing Positive diversion and signs of exhaustion in oversold area.This increases the probability of a bounce.
The Bollinger band range is 5960-6225 ,there may be consolidation in this range before any breakout .

Important Levels:

Please keep in mind the following important levels for the trading next week as per Volume Profile.

Option Analysis:

Since this is just the start of Nov. series and the build up at any strike is not abnormal ,I am not giving much importance to this.The Max. Call side buildup is at 6200 strike with O.I. of 42 lacs and that at Put side is at 6000 strike at 53 lacs.This indicates a range of 6000-6200 with positive bias ( same as Bollinger Bands.)
Out of money activity suggests that smart money is hedging itself with 6400 calls (45% addition) and 5600 puts (60% addition).This may be due to expectation of volatile and sudden move in near future due to major events coming up as U.S. elections , RBI meet & Federal Reseve meet.

EW Probability:

Please go through the last post on EW count -
http://o-j-n.blogspot.com/2010/10/ew-probability.html

The preferable count w.r.t. to A-B-C correction indicates the probabilty that this correction may have ended with the 'C' starting from 6151 and ending at our modest fibonacci target of 5935 levels.This will end the EW cycle since the upmove from 5350 levels.

Now for the future move, we look at the intermediate move since 4786 levels considering the above move as the 3 rd wave of this intermediate upmove and that the A-B-C correction as the 4th wave .

Correlating with the Indicators and other feelers the probability of the start of 5th wave
of the upmove since 4786 increases.

The Point Of Invalidation of this count is trading below 5935 level  ,which will voilate the hard EW rule of wave 2 trading below start of wave 1. ( we will then look at this as continuing of the A-B-C correction in a Double Zig Zag ( ABC X ABC )  manner to reach 5820 and below )

 I will be a buyer now with a hard s/l of 5935.Also it will be prudent to be on shorter side below 5935 level .

Some Pre Diwali Fire works in store for next week !!! Happy Trading .