Monday, March 16, 2015

Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis for Nifty



Is there a Reversal in sight ? Let's check the last post observations and follow up -


These were the observations of last post ( http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2015/02/elliott-wave-technical-analysis-for.html ) >>>


Positional Bias in Short term is Up, if keeps above 20dma on closing basis. 
( Caution required if we close below 20dma in next couple of sessions)

Short Term Targets may be in the range of 9050-9200 apprx.

Good Probability that we may top out sometime after Budget for a Time wise and may be Price wise bigger correction. 

Expect good volatility ahead in next couple of weeks. 


These were the follow up observations >>>



AAR VEE said...
UPDATE : 24-02-2015

1. I may have been wrong in counting subwaves in hrly TF and siting the Triangle in b of the c-e.

2. It may be marked as 5 wave up from 8475 to top of 8913 as subwave a , then from 8913 it is in a corrective that has done 38% retrace and finding support.This may be the b subwave.

3. Has whipsawed 20dma for last two sessions and closed below it. Now moving above 20dma may be the signal of end of corrective b of this c-e.
Above 20dma we may be in c of this c-e and move for targets as mentioned in the post.

4. Close below 8700 will negate this probability.
AAR VEE said...
Update 27-02-2015
---------------------

The excess of expiry day of closing below 8700 was resolved today by a gap up then consolidating near 20dma for first two hr and then a breakout above20dma followed by a trending session throughout.

Back on track for targets.
Akhil said...
Hi Aarvee, you have nailed this one as well, so how low do we go now please :)

Thanks
Akhil
AAR VEE said...
@Akhil -

Target as mentioned in post done (with EW equality of c=a=438 at apprx 9108 level). High made 9119.

News of rate cut was sold into.

20dma has been broken as well as TL up from low of 8065. It's now Sell on rise market in short term.

Immediate resistance in 8795-8825 zone.
Trading below which we have target of 8630-45 & then later 8570-50 apprx.

Longs and Buy on dips traders are trapped. May not give a big bounce for them to be out easily.

Close above 8850 will be caution for shorts as of today.

Regards


Now further >>>

1. 


2.


3.



4.


5.


Positional Bias is Down in Short term, which may even extend further depending on how the short term Supports hold.

Short term support zone is 8470-8550 apprx. If this breaks then we may get to 8370 level quickly.

If it's a wave 4 correction and gives a time and price wise larger correction, then the Positional Targets can be 8370 and 7900 apprx.

Remember that the Long Term chart is still Bullish, so caution while trading on short side. Since the low of 5118 we have been doing only 3 waves down in short term correction and making new highs consistently.


17 comments:

Akhil said...

Hi Aarvee, do u think we break 8000 soon, or is the correction over pls?

Thanks

AAR VEE said...

@Akhil ,

1. The Positional bias was Down with basic target of apprx 8600-8550 and on break of it to a quick 8370. It has been achieved.

2. Long term chart structure is still in Uptrend as mentioned in the post. Also we have done a 9% + correction from 9119, which is quite big in a single series in an Uptrend.

3. The structure from 9119 looks like a W-X-Y three wave corrective upto 8269 low. Now this may in itself be a 4th or it can even be a 'D' of expanding triangle ED (starting from low of 7723) with C at 9119.
- The TL from 7723-7961 has given support in last session.

4. Some green shoots are visible for a potential technical bounce if we hold the low of 8269 now on. Bounce may target 100dma (apprx 8530) and further to 8600+

5. Moving to 200dma or below will depend on reaction to this bounce or break of 8269 as of now.

TAnovice said...

Hi Aarvee

Your tgt of 8600+ has been achieved as part of the technical bounce back... Where do u see the nifty heading next?? Below 8269 or above 9119???

maninder singh Bhamra said...

Hi Aarvee,
On daily chart nifty has formed bullish engulfing pattern, also at 38% fib level and 20EMA resistance and also on long term trendline resistance joining 9th May low and 17th Dec low. Do you see any reversal as per EW counting from this levels, your views please.

AAR VEE said...

@TAnovice

May be we trade between the two extremes you have mentioned. 8269 and 9119.

@maninder s
So daily is bullish engulfing, Monthly is bearish engulfing.

At 38 % fibo but can go to 50 or 61.8%

At 20ema but below 20dma
Above 100dma but below 50dma

At TL u mentioned but above TL I have mentioned in comment above.

So lets wait it to resolve

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 05-04-15
-----------------

1. Technical bounce has come. On lower volumes and short covering.

2. Near term can still go upwards.
8680 and 8725 may come if keeps above 8580.

3. Support zone at 8580-8520 in near term.

4. Below 8520 we may target 8475 & 8400

5. Down bias below 8340 close only

6. EW probability mentioned in comment above that of completion of 4th or D of ed. Both have upward bias.
Another probability is of A/4 done at 8269 now in B/4 or XX up. This has still a leg down pending.

maninder singh Bhamra said...

Hi Aarvee,

50% fib retrace done, moving towards 61%, global markets positive.. Nifty towards 8794 before friday?

harash gupta said...

Hi Aarve

Market has met your upside targets, whats the next imp resistance level please?

Thanks

AAR VEE said...

@ maninder singh

Ya almost touched the 61.8% level and closed near highs, can go further up.

@ harash gupta

- Bias in near term is Up.

- Holding the low of last session, it may target 8850-8920 apprx zone, where the near term resistance is expected.

- If corrects from the Resistance mentioned above and holds on to 8680-8700 on closing basis (shallow-sideways correction), its likely to move further up in the series. Whipsaw for trading to be managed.

- Positional critical level to decide the Trend is in 8580-8600 zone, closing below which, the new leg Down may start.Till then the Bias is Up only.

- Retest of 9119 high and may be a new all time High above it is now a good probability.

prashant bhatia said...

Dear sir,
Kindly update your precious views on possible direction of nifty for next week.
Thanks. & Regards.

Akhil said...

Hi Aarve

Could you share your views on the near term outlook?

Thanks

PANKAJ SHAH said...

resistance faced in expected zone around 8850. broken 8580-8600....broken 8269 also....
fresh update ?

arun said...

now what will next path of nifty pull back rally started from today what level it will go and when short the nifty plz explain

Vaishnav Shukla said...

Dear Sir

Pl update..

Regards..

PANKAJ SHAH said...

update ?

Anonymous said...

hi aarvee the high volatility is troubling traders

a update from you would be welcom

Gaurav Sehgal said...

Hi Aarvee,

would request you to please update your views on Nifty; Now that we have firmly broken and are sustaining below trend deciding levels of 8580-8600. .. and proven down bias below 8340!

how do you see mkts here on?

thanks and regards!

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