Is there a Reversal in sight ? Let's check the last post observations and follow up -
These were the observations of last post ( http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2015/02/elliott-wave-technical-analysis-for.html ) >>>
Positional Bias in Short term is Up, if keeps above 20dma on closing basis.
( Caution required if we close below 20dma in next couple of sessions)
Short Term Targets may be in the range of 9050-9200 apprx.
Good Probability that we may top out sometime after Budget for a Time wise and may be Price wise bigger correction.
Expect good volatility ahead in next couple of weeks.
These were the follow up observations >>>
1. I may have been wrong in counting subwaves in hrly TF and siting the Triangle in b of the c-e.
2. It may be marked as 5 wave up from 8475 to top of 8913 as subwave a , then from 8913 it is in a corrective that has done 38% retrace and finding support.This may be the b subwave.
3. Has whipsawed 20dma for last two sessions and closed below it. Now moving above 20dma may be the signal of end of corrective b of this c-e.
Above 20dma we may be in c of this c-e and move for targets as mentioned in the post.
4. Close below 8700 will negate this probability.
The excess of expiry day of closing below 8700 was resolved today by a gap up then consolidating near 20dma for first two hr and then a breakout above20dma followed by a trending session throughout.
Back on track for targets.
Target as mentioned in post done (with EW equality of c=a=438 at apprx 9108 level). High made 9119.
News of rate cut was sold into.
20dma has been broken as well as TL up from low of 8065. It's now Sell on rise market in short term.
Immediate resistance in 8795-8825 zone.
Trading below which we have target of 8630-45 & then later 8570-50 apprx.
Longs and Buy on dips traders are trapped. May not give a big bounce for them to be out easily.
Close above 8850 will be caution for shorts as of today.
Now further >>>
Positional Bias is Down in Short term, which may even extend further depending on how the short term Supports hold.
Short term support zone is 8470-8550 apprx. If this breaks then we may get to 8370 level quickly.
If it's a wave 4 correction and gives a time and price wise larger correction, then the Positional Targets can be 8370 and 7900 apprx.
Remember that the Long Term chart is still Bullish, so caution while trading on short side. Since the low of 5118 we have been doing only 3 waves down in short term correction and making new highs consistently.