Sunday, November 9, 2014

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

Check out the probability that lies ahead as of now :

Blogger AAR VEE said...
Low of 7723 was made in last session 17-10-14 before this comment

UPDATE : 19-10-2014 :

1. Complex corrective from top of 8180 is on.

2. This may be IV-3 or may be larger 4th wave correction. (as in charts above)

3. 50dma was broken convincingly and now last 2 sessions 100dma is supporting . (The trading range mentioned in hrly chart got broken bringing in short term weakness).

4. Correction unfolding is a combination corrective most likely a-b-c-x-a-b-c (Flat-x-may be zz) as of now .

5. Now close above 50dma may signal a likely end of correction and above 20dma as confirmation of it.
Similarly break of 100dma may extend the correction further to 7650-7590 zone.

October 20, 2014 at 12:29 AM
November 2, 2014 at 11:09 PM
Blogger AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 02-11-14

1. As mentioned above and in probable count last post, we did IV-3 at 7723 low ( flat-x-zz), moving up above 50-20dma we got confirmation of end of correction and a firm move above last high of 8180 justifies V-3

2. Now this fast upmove from 7723 can be taken as V-3 and may find positional target in 8425-8550 zone. Right now we may be in the iiird of this V-3.

3. Next week is a truncated week with two trading holidays. We may trade range bound with upward bias and may trade in the 8250-8450 broader range.
November 2, 2014 at 11:19 PM

Below is the updated chart with EW counts further from the last update.

Theoretical Target for Wave V-3

Method 1:

After identification of the wave 4th a new channel can be drawn with Trendline connecting wave 2 and 4 and other running parallel starting from end of wave 3 .The wave 5 may end near the channel top or within it depending on its extension.

Method 2: 

The Price projection for a wave 5 may be 38.2 % (min) above the net length of wave 1 to 3. 

Method 3:

Most common method of Price projection suggests that the wave 1 and 5 are related with equality (or 1.618, 2.618 fibonacci ratios).

The above mentioned methods are marked in the chart : 

Above is just a theoretical exercise to find out a probable target zone for wave V-3 which comes in the range of 8550 + as of now, but the 5th waves have notorious characteristic of ending suddenly or getting extended. So watch for exhaustion signals first near 8450(+-25) and then in the apprx target area as in the chart. Will update further for any change in view. 


Akhil said...

Hi Aarvee

I notice you have upgraded your upside target.

Once V-3 completes, what would be the likely size of correction you expect?


AAR VEE said...

Hi Akhil,

An EW exercise to find out apprx target for the upmove has been done in the post and it comes out near 8550+

But as caution we watch for exhaustion signs near 8450+-25 considering the price action as of now since 7723 low.

Break and close below 8250 may signal a short term top in place and a likely completion of wave V-3.

If happens so a likely range bound move in medium term (Dec-Feb) may unfold in wave 4. General depth of wave 4 correction is 38-50% of wave 3. We will track short term moves for that as we move ahead considering price and patterns.


Akhil said...

Hi Aarve

Grateful for your insights on the way forward. All your targets have been met for now.
Way to go!


kalyani said...

Aarvee sir,
What is the latest view pl?

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE : 07-12-14

1. The basic targets for V-3 (8575-8610) as calculated in above chart have been achieved.

2. The top at 8627 may have done the vth of the V-3.

3. The TL joining the lows for vth from 8353 up has been broken in last session.

4. After the top of 8627, a 5 wave down and a probable 3 wave up may have been done in 5 min tf ( or probably a last minor up may be pending)

5. The bias is shifting downwards with resistance now in 8550-8610 range. The S/L for this probability is 8628.

6. Break of 8500 and close below it will confirm the downward bias and then may tgt 8400-8350.

7. Any close above 8625 will negate this probability and upmove may resume for higher tgts near 8750 apprx

Akhil said...

hi, looks like 7800 on the anvil next?