Let us check the Probability in line with the larger Bullish Trend with Nifty now nearing all time High of apprx 8000 .
THE POST HAS BEEN UPDATED AS ON 28-09-14 with new charts :
1.
2.
3.
4. Caution :
Closing above 8000 level as well as the Top Trendline ( as in the Daily Chart ) may confirm that the Price action is following this Bullish Probability .
Targets of this bullish Probability (if it's V-3) are in excess of 8400 Positionally .
Caution for invalidity of this Probability on close below 7940 (last session's low) and confirmation on break of 7862 only.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
28-09-14
-------------
Following where the observations on various turns of the markets in last series posted as comments in this post
UPDATE 09-09-14
----------------
1. If V-3 started from 7540, it has done 0.62 times wave I-3(886 pts) . Also a 5 wave move can be marked at 8180 top from low of 7540. So min. requirement done.
2. Now the series demand & supply is poised such that a close below 8100 would call for a probable short term top in place at recent high of 8180.
3. Depth of correction (holding of 8000 level in particular) may let us know whether V-3 is over at highs or it's mere corrective which will resume uptrend soon.
UPDATE 16-09-14
----------------
1. The observations in above comment were made a day after 8180 top was formed and series dynamics indicated that below 8100 the balance will tilt towards sellers.
Monday opened gap down below 8100 and closed below it, opening gates for breach of 8000 level today.
2. Now EW suggests that if it is a-b-c correction from top then extended c= 1.62xa is almost done at lows. If it's start of a deeper correction then we are in wave 3 of it and may be in its iiird subwave.
Some support to come at 7890-7915 zone.
3. Resistance now at 20dma . Staying below 20dma we are likely to revisit 50dma now near 7800.
4. Yesterday it had completed Head & Shoulders pattern in hourly tf that started forming from 02-09-14. It retested it's neckline after breaking it yesterday only. It had a target of 120 pts which was also achieved today at apprx 7940
5. Gap pending from first day of this series was filled today at 7959 and another gap remains at 7912 above 7862 .
UPDATE 21-09-14
----------------
1. Of the two probabilities mentioned in above comment, market chose the a-b-c correction from 8180 top to low of 7925 and didn't extend further in 5 waves down.
2. 20dma was sliced through intraday and 8100 held on closing basis in last two sessions.
3. Moving forward, If 8100 is held on closing basis (and 20dma intraday support) we may make a new high above 8200.
4. Break and close below of 20dma and not crossing the 8180 high will start the next leg of downmove.
5. Will re assess the pattern of IV-3 in running channel /expanding triangle (as top trendline was breached comfortably for 2 sessions). So V-3 may have started from 7422 itself instead of 7540
Now Check the self explanatory charts for further insight :
1.
2.
3.
4.
13 comments:
UPDATE 09-09-14
----------------
1. If V-3 started from 7540, it has done 0.62 times wave I-3(886 pts) . Also a 5 wave move can be marked at 8180 top from low of 7540. So min. requirement done.
2. Now the series demand & supply is poised such that a close below 8100 would call for a probable short term top in place at recent high of 8180.
3. Depth of correction (holding of 8000 level in particular) may let us know whether V-3 is over at highs or it's mere corrective which will resume uptrend soon.
dear AAR VEE.....many thanks for the update....you have been doing such great service for those who seek.....you are a master blaster..cheers.......
financials to do well esp those which have underperformed and are fundamentally sound....one such bet is l&t fin holdings...I do hold few shares..as investment...from whatever little technical analysis I can see......it is forming higher bottoms and lower tops for last 3 years....in short a triangle....in such a strong market it is anybody's guess where it should go....seems it has given fresh breakout in last couple of days.....can you please give your technical inputs
UPDATE 16-04-14
----------------
1. The observations in above comment were made a day after 8180 top was formed and series dynamics indicated that below 8100 the balance will tilt towards sellers.
Monday opened gap down below 8100 and closed below it, opening gates for breach of 8000 level today.
2. Now EW suggests that if it is a-b-c correction from top then extended c= 1.62xa is almost done at lows. If it's start of a deeper correction then we are in wave 3 of it and may be in its iiird subwave.
Some support to come at 7890-7915 zone.
3. Resistance now at 20dma . Staying below 20dma we are likely to revisit 50dma now near 7800.
4. Yesterday it had completed Head & Shoulders pattern in hourly tf that started forming from 02-09-14. It retested it's neckline after breaking it yesterday only. It had a target of 120 pts which was also achieved today at apprx 7940
5. Gap pending from first day of this series was filled today at 7959 and another gap remains at 7912 above 7862 .
UPDATE 21-09-14
----------------
1. Of the two probabilities mentioned in above comment, market chose the a-b-c correction from 8180 top to low of 7925 and didn't extend further in 5 waves down.
2. 20dma was sliced through intraday and 8100 held on closing basis in last two sessions.
3. Moving forward, If 8100 is held on closing basis (and 20dma intraday support) we may make a new high above 8200.
4. Break and close below of 20dma and not crossing the 8180 high will start the next leg of downmove.
5. Will re assess the pattern of IV-3 in running channel /expanding triangle (as top trendline was breached comfortably for 2 sessions). So V-3 may have started from 7422 itself instead of 7540
update?
what a great foresight......RV...in hindsight everything seems crystal clear....hope you are making good profits....keep updating.....thanks...well its been a long struggle for me...the struggle continues.....
i feel now it is high time to update.
you should consider option of bullish option that last wave has started from 7540.
7540 to 7841 up 419 points
7841 to 7540 dn 301 points
7540 to 8180 up 640 points
8180 to 7842 down 338 points
last and final sub wave started from 7842 ......
sorry first sub wave started from 7422
Post was updated in comment section with observations of concern at required time.
New charts added today.
Regards
update ?
Aar vee sir.. Waiting for an update..
UPDATE : 19-10-2014 :
---------------------
1. Complex corrective from top of 8180 is on.
2. This may be IV-3 or may be larger 4th wave correction. (as in charts above)
3. 50dma was broken convincingly and now last 2 sessions 100dma is supporting . (The trading range mentioned in hrly chart got broken bringing in short term weakness).
4. Correction unfolding is a combination corrective most likely a-b-c-x-a-b-c (Flat-x-may be zz) as of now .
5. Now close above 50dma may signal a likely end of correction and above 20dma as confirmation of it.
Similarly break of 100dma may extend the correction further to 7650-7590 zone.
Post a Comment