Sunday, September 15, 2013

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty


Last few Sessions and Weekly close have been above 200 dma indicating Technical bullishness. 
Lets check the Probabilities now with the Charts & Observations for the Trading Insight.



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A Sideways move may unfold this week trading withing a broader range of 5950-5550.
A reversion to the mean of the recent up move may happen. Below 5800 the Supports at 5675-5700 and then at apprx 5550 may be tested. Only a close above 5970 will signal further Bullishness.

14 comments:

Nilesh Patil said...

Thanks Sir,

Anonymous@V said...

thanks RV

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 21-09-13
----------------

Last week, Sideways moves happened but was shallow only between 5950-5800 apprx before breaking out on upside because of the FED news.

Did not close below 5805 on daily basis or below 5785 on hrly basis hence no positional sell was generated for short term.

Observations
--------------
1. It has crossed above the trendline resistance as shown in the Daily chart.Last session tested the trendline breakout and closed above it.

2.Now the EW probability looks more like a W-X-Y formation from 5119 till closes above 6350.

Close above 6350 will indicate a new impulse on upside with positional Buy on Dips for much higher targets.

W=5119-5913 (11-09)
X=5913-5798
Y is on---

Y may target apprx 6230-6350 if closes above 6150.
Remember this years high is 6229 and previous high is 6338 in Nov 2010.
Sensex has already whipsawed the equivalent high of 6229 on FED news day.

Close below last session low of apprx 5930 will be bearish and indicate a short term top in place.

Below 5800 downside trend will intensify.

Anonymous@V said...

Looks like downtrend has set in....though only a correction till 200 DMA....may whipsaw around there 5850....fund flows in short term to determine trend....most likely upwards as fed is in no mood to taper anytime soon and incoming fed chairlady janet yellen will make ben bernanke look hawkish....she is too dovish....hence raghuram rajan has tried to defend rupee by raising repo rate....as high liquidity worldwide will definately inflate oil and gold prices and put pressure on our CAD....

rajapvt said...

Yet another week passed in a time pass manner. Aarvee, ji waiting for your next update.

AAR VEE said...

@rajapvt-

Ya range trading and low volatility.

Let 200dma be a pivot for positional trading on closing basis. Both sides probabilities equally open as of now.

Anonymous@V said...

Thanks RV...keep updating...

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 29-09-13
---------------
The close above 6150 did not happen for further upside but broke down after RBI and closed below 5930 indicating bearishness as suggested on 21-09-13 update.

Though it has managed to close above 5800,the last close was below 200dma with the long term moving averages of 200 and 50 dma still bearishly aligned.

If remains below 200dma of 5840 its likely to target apprx 5750,5715,5630 in short term.
close above 5840 will neutralize the downward bias.

EW counts not very clear as of now so will wait on that. but likely probability of a-b-c move from 6142 which may be in b(ended truncated at 5917 or in b-b) or c now (in iii-c).

rajapvt said...

Thanks for the update RV.

Anonymous@V said...

NEED TO WATCH FII FIGURES....FII ARE LONG IN NIFTY FUTURES....PROP DESKS AND RETAIL ARE SHORT....ON SIGNS OF BOTTOMING OUT EXPECT FIREWORKS ON THE UPSIDE...DIWALI IS ROUND THE CORNER

AAR VEE said...

Anonymous@V

FII DATA BOTH IN CASH AND F&O IS ON THE 'SELL' SIDE IN LAST TWO SESSIONS IN OCT SERIES.

Anonymous@V said...

Agree RV, but it looks like FII are selling ( long unwinding futures ) in last couple of sessions....but the overall bias for the series is still on the long side....for FII.....US govt shutdown is hurting fund flow negatively....which is technical in nature....will get resolved sooner or later...most asian curriencies and markets on the rise....rupee can be safely presumed to go back to 60 levels...auto sales encouraging due to good monsoon....CAD is already coming down.....nifty has already corrected from 6150 to 5750 (futures)......at one time when rupee was at 55....most analysts expected it to appreciate towards 52- 53 not long ago.....on signs of investment climate improving.....thst will be a blast for the bulls....last two days fall is on very low volumes....agree technically trend for nifty is down.....but rupee movement will say it all.....keep watching.....and updating ...cheers

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 06-10-13
----------------

Mixed signals.

1. Lower high-lower low in weekly for 3rd week. close below 50wma

2. 50-200dma still bearishly aligned.But room for some upmove still there.

3. Hourly has negative diversion at double top of 5950.

So weakness appearing in lower tf with long term structure also week.
Room for some range bound activity till the result season triggers in this weekend.

Close above 5970 may lead to higher targets above 6142. Trade and close below last session low of 5885 may be bearish with downmove having targets of retesting the 5700 low and further below.

Kumar said...

Aar-vee Ji,

If you are updating the weekly comments, please post it separately so that everyone can look it.

Actually, i missed your updates.

Thanks In Advance.

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