Sunday, October 28, 2012

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty



Nifty continues in the corrective mode as the insight analyzed from last many weeks . Below are charts with comments for the probability that may lie in future. Please go through them carefully.



 Weekly chart since 4530 :



Daily chart since 4770 :



Hourly chart since 5637 :



Fibonacci retrace since 5815:



10min chart since 5721:



Moving Averages :



So we may continue with the short term correction this week also if trades below 5718 now. Apprx 5550(+-30) zone has the confluence of Supports as analyzed in charts above by the way of EW target , Fibonaaci retraces, Daily Trendline and 50dma. Shorts should be cautious in this zone. In a nutshell , as of now the Short term trend is down whereas the Medium term is up.

  

12 comments:

Nilesh Patil said...

Thanks sir for your Analysis,counts.

Is it one of the possibility that X wave is over @5815?

Anonymous said...

Thanks RV, God Bless you.

Some observations outside technicals - Hedge funds globally have underperformed despite markets hitting new highs globally, hence they are underweight and may panic buy in case of economic recovery.

No asset class is hopeful of giving positive return except equity...bonds -commodoties - currencies are all hitting resistance

India can absorb huge liquidity as there is pent up demand-demographic dividend

You only buy in anticipation and calculated risk, when all the news and good things are out , the prices will have shot up

Monetary policy worldwide is committed to be low till mid 2015

Domestic investors have been sellers, otherwise the markets would have peaked. Anyway domestic investors are know to buy on top and sell at bottom

Inflation will come down and commodities will cool off-creating a virtuous cycle on fiscal and current account. That is what the price action and currency movement suggest.

Monsoon has been reasonable

Keep a watch on policy matters, as investment spending will give a high jump, esp infra investment push-power sector-telecom solutions and rate cut will be icing on the case

Cheers, anyway we all are bulls at heart


SP said...

thank you AAR VEE sir :)

Piyush Sharda said...

good analysis rv

AAR VEE said...

@Nilesh ,

Thanks for ur comment.
There can be few more valid counts in the corrective but I am sticking to ones given in the Post.

@Anonymous ,

Thanks for a detailed comment and views shared by you.

I feel Technicals and fundamentals may not always concide (though they may do so in long term charts.)to help us trade.

I dont follow fundamentals as i believe that charts represent all the variables. It may be my oversight if I dont read them correctly.But I like to trade the probability they present with risk -reward in favour.

Rather than being a bull or bear at heart its better to be a trader in your timeframe of trade.

Regards

@SP
Thanks

@Piyush
Thanks

rb9 said...

Thanks Sir for the post i eagerly go through your post very Monday and find your perpectives on EW very demonstrating and practical with alternate probabilities.
@ Anonymous...
What the hegde fund does and the monetary policies worldwide does has noyhing to do with our own indivisual money...
TRUTH IS.. CHART FACTORS THAT ALL AND CURRENT PRICES DISCOUNT THAT ALL...
DII ARE IN BETTER SHAPE BECAUSE THEY ARE SHREWD AND KNOW THAT ITS NOT HOT MONEY...

HOWEVER ONE IS FREE TO TAKE HIS OWN ACTION....AFTER ALL MONEY MATTERS..

Anonymous said...

Thanks all, for your comments. Got to agree that technical analysis works in short to medium term. But the charts are made by movers and shakers, the money managers.We merely follow them and at times get caught on the wrong foot. So a little bit of fundamental analysis does not hurt. Anyways I have realised by trading all along that is is tough to make serious money by trading. Can one make a living out of trading, I really wonder and would like to reach that goal myself some day. Cheers Thanks @RV once again for your efforts and sharing. Do you analyse individual stocks.

AAR VEE said...

@Anonymous ,

No way detering you from following fundamentals ,only putting across my viewpoint on ur last comment.

Ya charts are made by big hands ,to be followed by us to get some part of prevailing trend . If caught on wrong foot the trading should be such as to keep the losses minimum.

I have similar views about fundamental analysis and trading/investing based on it about money making :)

I do track few Nifty stocks but trade in Nifty derivatives only.

Would be nice if u comment by ur name.

Regards

@rb9

Thanks for ur comment.

Viren said...

Thanks RV for taking the time to reply to me comments. I also trade derivatives mostly, do follow technical analysis religiously,have seen the markets from 1991 when sensex was 700 and tisco 350 at that time if I am not mistaken, seen all the scams since then, I also carry a very sound fundamental hindsight. I would be glad to share my views with you if they may be of help to you. Technically markets have been making higher tops and higher bottoms for the last few months. See how fundas are improving now. Core sector in india grew 5.1 % in sept and china economy also rebounded in sept. Also US is trudging along. Agree that technicals were ahead of the improved fundamentals. One sector I am looking at favourably at present in high beta category is real estate

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Viren ,

Please feel free to share ur views on stock markets. With ur experience and knowledge it will be always helpful.

Regards

COMMODITY TIPS,MCX COMMODITY TIPS said...

The rupee was at 60.64/67 in early trades as against Thursday’s close Of 60.43/44. Agri Tips

COMMODITY TIPS,MCX COMMODITY TIPS said...

The rupee was at 60.64/67 in early trades as against Thursday’s close Of 60.43/44. Agri Tips

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