Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Trading on 02-02-2011

1. Nifty got resisted below 5550 levels and yesterday's rally proved to be of temporary relief.

2. FII's were net seller today also ,in excess of 1000 cr.

3. 5450 level has become the high volume node today in the profile charts .It also is 38.2%  fibo retrace of 5538-5402, as well as the VWAP of today's trading. It will prove a Resistance tmrw.Closing above 5500 looks suspect now.

4. Last two days may be the (ii) - iii - 3rd - C  wave .This ( ii ) wave is doing an a-b-c- correction . 'a' was from 5416 yesterday to 5539 today .'b' may be today from 5539 to 5402 levels in a irregular form going below low of 'a', so  'c' may be pending up before the (iii)- iii -3-C starts down again. The irregular 'b' may go down in the opening tmrw or bounce from here itself .The 'c' up may go to 5450 ,5500 levels.

5. There is also a positive diversion in hourly and half hourly time frame indicators.Together the EW and diversion calls for a bounce but the nature of bounce will decide the short term trend .Looks like a day or two of a upmove/trading above 5400 .

6. Options show a 100% addition in 5500 calls also indicating a resistance at this level , 5400 puts remain strong at 80lac O.I., indicating a support .Break of this level will bring a flash fall .

Be cautious in any upmove , check price behaviour near 5450 levels.Trend in all TF remains down.


piyush sharda said...

good and comprehensive analysis

AAR VEE said...

Thanks PS,

Price behaviour tells that it is trading above 5450 now ,so be careful.

U have been rghtly pointing out that 5690 level will be point of invalidation for this downmove and we should consider this as a simple A-B-C correction of the 4th wave. so the pending 5th will unfold (which may or may not end truncated) ,one may go long over 5700 then.

FIRE said...


Great analysis. 5450 was the decider today. Now what dou you think? c is over and (iii)- iii- 3rd-C started? Waiting eagerly. Also your view on BN would be very helpful.

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Fire,

Nice to see u around .Posted my views in the new post.

The short term trend gets invalid only above 5700 as pew EW and chances of break of 5400 have high probability ,lets trade the screen.:)