Sunday, January 23, 2011

Weekend Analysis

1. Indicators:

The Daily Indicators are exhausted and giving positive diversion in the oversold region. Much of the correction may be over


2. Volume Profile:

The 10d Volume Profile shows buying / accumulation at lower levels of this correction.
Support is buildup at 5650 level and Trading above 5700 may be positive.


3. Price Action:

The closing price is above 5d low ema and near the 5d ema. Trading above this may target 5d weekly lowema and 5d weekly ema i.e. 5750 and 5800+ levels.

4. Pattern:

The chart gives the Trendline trading of both long and short term. It suggests 5500+levels as strong support.


5. Option Analysis:

The Jan series is to expire in the coming week in a truncated trading week.

-In the Put side,the Max. O.I. Buildup is at 5600 strike and the near Call is at 5700 strike.

-The Calls at 5700 and 5800 strike exceeds their respective Puts.

-Rollover to next series is low .

-The most striking figure comes out ,that may throw light on the action to unfold,is the  Feb. series data. 5600 stike Puts have added a decent Open Interest and is the highest  accounting both the Calls and Puts  .

So the last days of this series may end up in a range bound,volatile trading between 5600 and 5800 levels with 5700 as pivot .Max. action may be seen between 5650 and 5750 levels with expected Expiry in this zone.
For the next series the 5600 level is firming up as a good support.

6. Ema+Fibo:

The 50 and 200d sma are still bullishly aligned with prices testing & trading near the the 38.2% fibo. level of the upmove since 4675 levels.The support comes near 200dma and trading above this can target the 50 sma level.



7. EW analysis:

I am counting the upmove since 4675 level ,Feb'10, as the base level.(taking it as final Intermediate wave of the upmove since March'09).
The Primary count suggests that we are in the 4th wave of the upmove which is correcting by 38.2% level.Currently the C wave of the 4th is in progress. Pl.read the above chart for reference.

This count is valid till the 5400 level (end of wave 1) holds.In case it gives way ,the Alternate count will come into play ,which suggests the wave 5 already over at recent top and this correction is a part of the Larger A-B-C correction of the upmove since March 09.

The details of the correction of this 4th wave are in the chart below. It may be ending as a triangle pattern in the C wave.


So,combining all aspects -

This series may end up in a range bound trading .So,Trade light for few days.

5600 level seems a strong Support going forward.( Breaking of which may test the 5500 level (50% fibo), longs may be created near these levels for short term trading.

5400 is the Game Changer level for the Bulls which will open the floodgates of a bigger correction to come in this year.The caution comes from persistent FII selling and USD movement. so keep a s/l of 5400 level closing basis for Positional trade .

 Happy Trading !!!

45 comments:

alphabet1 said...

Congratulations on your new blog and all the success.

Sujeet said...

I am new here, but got to know about you from ilango Sir, All the best to you!

Thanx,
Sujeet

financeandtradingmadeeasy said...

Hi Rajiv (Aar Vee)
Comprehensive analysis,Keep up the good work.
All the best

San said...

Hi AarVee

Thanx for the detailed analysis

My best wishes for the THIRD EYE

Sriganeshh said...

hi RV,

wishing you all the success...

sri

Umash said...

Dear Aar Vee,

Nice of you to visit my blog & do really appreciate your detailed and broader analysis.
Keep going!

mynac said...

Dear AAR VEE,

Now the "Third Eye" will keep the watch as before very keenly.

Very happy to see you back in action.

All the best for your Blogging activity.

with regards,

manu said...

balle balle pa ji..

AAR VEE said...

@ Alpha1,
Thanks for the wishes

@Sujeet,
I was also introduced to TA at JN by Ilango sir and met all the OJN friends there.U are welcome here.

@Anuj,
Congrats on the new look blog.
Thanks .

@San,
Thanks,Following ur blog closely.

@Sri,
Thanks buddy.

@Umash,
Thanks and best wishes to u too.

@mynac,
Thanks for all the encouraging words.hope to see more of u with lovely O.I. analysis.

@manu,
chak de phatte....

MarketPulse S&P Team said...

Dear Rajiv,

Congratulations. As usual perfect analysis.

Thanks & Regards

Sanjay Kr Jaiswal

Bramesh said...

Hi Rajiv Sir
Comprehensive analysis,Keep up the good work.
All the best
Bramesh

Ilango said...

Hi..AarVee,

Congratulations and All the very best to you.

ilango

Yoda said...

Very informative work, keep it up, Aar Vee.:)

raju said...

I hope your third eye will open a new life to all.My best wishes to you

r m said...

Hi RV

Congratulations! Wishing you the very best!

rm

satheesh said...

Good morning Aarvee,

Congratulations on your new blogging activity. Keep going great!!!

prashant shah said...

hi RV BROOO.... Congratulations and Wishing u the Best Of Luck...Regards...Prashant Shah

Nilesh said...

Good Morning Sir, i m new to this blog. i knew it from Ilango sirs blog. CONGRATULATIONS FOR YOUR NEW BLOG. YOU ALL ARE GOOD TEACHERS. BEST OF LUCK.

Renu said...

Congratulation aarvee on your blog...........i always liked your sharing of knowledge on illango ji's blog..........all the best for future.

musti1780 said...

Gm Rv & very best wishes on Your new Venture.
I hope we all get a lot of good stuff for our trading here.

piyush sharda said...

congrats rv.
i am really very happy for 2 reasons. one is
u have reached an important milestone. second now i'll get to read ur views more frequently
:-)
wish u the best...

Prabakar said...

GM Aar Vee.

Congrats and Best wishes to you.

manojag said...

Aar Vee,
Wishing you all the best. Hope to be with you in this wonderful journey.
Best and warm wishes,
manoj agarwal.

Lakshmi Ramachandran said...

That was good!!!!

piyush sharda said...

rv i dont know today u have mood/time for this

is it possible 5th started or there can be another downled 5630-40 approx

theprofiletrader said...

Nice analysis.RV
waiting for more.....

ss said...

ATB,

Tryin2Trade said...

Aar Vee Hi

Congrats on your new blog....

Very nice analysis...pretty exhaustive though...hope these kind of posts will be limited to weekend analysis only, coz writing so much daily will tire you sooner or later and take out some focus from actual trading...

Keep your daily posts objective and brief...mucho needed to be conveyed through charts as a picture (charts in this case) is worth thousand words...

To wrap up...my best wishes to you,your blog and to your readers...

Cheers!!!!

Manoj

AAR VEE said...

@ Sanjay
Thanks for all the good words.Keep in touch

@Bramesh
Thanks for the wishes.Cut out the ‘sir’ part buddy.

@Ilango sir,

Tons of Thanks . My methods are only the extension and application of the TA introduced to me at JN by u. Regards

@Yoda,
Thanks for the encouragement.:)

@raju,
Thanks and welcome here.Will try my best.

@rm,
Thanks and looking fwd to meet the great smile here regularly.:))

@satheesh,
Thanks ,U r welcome
@prashant shah,
Thanks buddy ,keep in touch

@Nilesh,
Thanks ,but please cut that ‘sir’ part .I am also a student and follower of the market.
Cant think even to teach !!

@Renu,
Thanks for visiting here.Hope u are keeping good health now.Thanks for the kind words

@musti,
Thanks musti will try my best to share and keep on updating

@PS,
Thanks and happy to know that u feel good for me , I look fwd for regular discussion with ur inqusitivness.The milestone ,as u say, couldn’t have been possible without the road traveled with u all at JN and OJN.:)

@Prabakar,
Thanks, and welcome aboard.

@Manojag,
Thanks ,I also hope u will be along as usual with me .

@Laxmi mam,
Thanks for visiting here and appreciating.I hope for more interaction.Regards

@TheProfiletrader,
Welcome here jazz, thanks for the comment

@SS sir,
Thanks for the wishes ,Regards

AAR VEE said...

@Tryin2Trade
Hi Manoj,
Thanks for visiting here.

I am generally a Positional trader ,hence as per ur wishes will post such posts on weekends only :)).
I may not get time for daily updates but will try Eod updates frequently.

Looking for more interaction and comments for improvement here.
Thanks

venkatapathy l said...

RV sir,
Wish you the best of good luck.

FIRE said...

RV,

I am an old fan of yours. My best wishes for your great endeavor. Dreamed a lot about doing this kind of blog myself. I am not eligible yet but thanks to you, another opportunity to learn now.
Chareibeti...

Lalit said...

congr8ts on yr new blog

AAR VEE said...

@venkatapathy,

Thanks for the wishes .Cut out the 'sir' business :) U r welcome here.

@Fire,

Thanks Fire for such nice words.I couldnt get your 'eligibility' part ???If u have a dream for blogging it should come true.I have seen your charts ,they have unique insight and your calls on JN are good.Even i am a computer illeterate and averse to softwares but my OJN friends helped me out.
Let me know how can I be of any help for u to start a blog.
regards

@Lalit,
Thanks ,welcome aboard

Nifty Statistics said...

Congratulations and Wishing u the Best Of Luck...Regards.
Mihirkumar Shah

AAR VEE said...

@Nifty Statistics,

Thanks Mihir

niftydoctor said...

DEAR AAR VEE,

CONGRATULATION AND BEST WISHES FOR THE NEW BLOG.

YOUR ANALYSIS WAS SUPERB AND MARKET BEHAVED LIKE THAT ALSO.

WITH REGARDS.

AAR VEE said...

@niftydoctor,

Thanks Doc.for taking out time to read the analysis and commenting .
Will refer the case for ur advise when the patient(dear Nifty) needs ICU treatment.:))

Regards

sundar said...

Dear Aar Vee,

Congratulations. As usual, a thorough and neat analyses. There could not have been a better name other than "The Third Eye". My best wishes to you.

Sundar

AAR VEE said...

Dear Sundar,

Thanks for ur best wishes and appreciation.
Looking fwd for more interaction from your side.

Girish Desai said...

RV,

Extremely detailed and well thought out post. Thanks!

Keep your posts coming ...

AAR VEE said...

Hi Girish,

Thanks,and all the best for ur career assignment.Please provide ur O.I. input at regular intervals.

kkay369 said...

Hi,
AAR VEE ji,
Congratulations! Wishing you All the best for
New Venture
KKay

krishna said...

Aar vee..

All the very best..Keep up the gud work

AAR VEE said...

@ krishna,

Thanks ,will try my best.

@kkay

Thanks and welcome

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