Sunday, January 30, 2011

Short Term Analysis

Short Term

This time frame analysis pertains to less than couple of months.

Moving Averages:

The Moving averages indicating the short term trend ,5-20ema are bearishly aligned.
Till they get bullishly aligned the short term trend will remain down.


Though the indicators have flattened out in the charts ,still signs of reversal for any short term bounce don't appear.

Volume Profile:

The short term volume profile indicates High Volume Node at 20,000 levels of the Sensex and Positional selling from above it . So,the Trend is down below this level in the Short term.

10d Volume Profile:

In the immediate term ,the trend is down and the Resistances are shown by help of the 10d Volume Profile.

EW Probability:

As discussed in the Medium Term count ,

We may be in the iii of the wave 3 rd of the Larger 'C' and can target below 5200 levels.The Probable wave count may be as follows-

If Wave 1 of 'C' is 6338-5690 =650 pts apprx.
    Wave 2 of 'C' is 5690-6180 =490 pts apprx.

Then Wave 3 of 'C' can be apprx. 100% or 161.8% of the Wave 1 ,since it has passed 100% level apprx. at 5525 in trading and seeing the other Indicators ,if Wave 3 extends by 1.618 time Wave 1 ,a target of apprx. 5150 levels is in store for it.    

Also to keep an alternate scenario in perspective that if the EW count goes the alternate way of the 5th wave pending of the upmove since 4675 (a view that gets invalidated below 5400),seeing the Volume Profile it looks that the 5th may end truncated below the 20,000 sensex levels.

Looking for the target of 5300/5200 below 5500 and long only above 5dema/hema when the 5-20 ema is bullishly aligned and volumes support the upmove.

Remember that in a downmove no Supports hold ,so no trying of going against the short term trend.
Also one should trade the trend with reference to the larger time frame trend. So, look for booking longs or shorting at technical levels.

Click here for the Long Term View :

Click here for the Medium Term View:


abhishek said...

Great analysis R V.

Rajib said...

hey RV,

Your third wave is the shortest ... :)


AAR VEE said...

Thanks Rajib,

Had posted the wrong chart ,one of those in which we play tic-tac-toe and delete.(forgot)
Posted the corrected chart ,I have been following this chart and in the last weekend post had marked an early end of the 4th ,which continued and break down later. These are probable counts only .the 'c' can also get extended by 1.618 of the 'a' and be same as the 3rd of the 'C'.

Thanks anyway buddy ,keep an eye on the Third Eye and keep submitting your observations.

Renu said...

Nice analysis aarvee.............looking forward to your future posts.

AAR VEE said...

Thanks Renu